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For the best part of a decade we’ve talked about Melbourne’s “big three” as if they have little or no competition when it comes to being the best trio of key players at any one club.
Of course, it used to be the “big four” until the Storm had to shed one of those – Greg Inglis – to get back under the salary cap after an investigation in 2010 found the club had cheated it.
But that still left Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith as the cornerstone of a team that bounced back from that drama to win the premiership in 2012.
That was then though, this is now.
Instead of being a comfortable top-four team and pressing for the minor premiership, as you would normally expect from them, Melbourne are in seventh place and must be careful over the closing rounds just to make sure they finish in the top eight.
They should get there. They’ve got Cronulla at home, Penrith away, the Sydney Roosters away and Brisbane at home over the last four rounds. But given that the two middle games promise to be tough, they probably can’t afford to slip on a banana peel in either of the other two.
It might not be a massive decline from the Storm, but it’s a decline, and it began when they didn’t win a game in last year’s finals series and went out with losses to South Sydney and Newcastle.
The statistical comparison from last year’s regular season, in which the Storm finished third, to this year is stark.
Last year, they scored 589 points in their 24 games, at an average of 24.5. They conceded 373 points an average of 15.5.
This year, they have scored 430 points in 20 games, at an average of 21.5, and conceded 408 at an average of 20.4. The difference between the tallies has dropped from nine points last year to 1.1.
Melbourne won 16, drew one and lost seven games in last year’s regular season. They currently sit at 11 wins and nine losses for this season.
Slater, Cronk and Smith are all still great players, but just how great? Are they as great as they were three or four years ago, or even last year?
I’d say Cronk is. I think he has actually improved over the last few years. But I don’t think Slater and Smith are as good as they were.
That doesn’t mean they have gone “downhill”, so to speak. It would be ridiculous to suggest that. But I reckon they have levelled off and have now started to move – ever so slightly, mind you – in the opposite direction.
No amount of blowing up by the club about referee Ashley Klein – even if the NRL effectively agreed with the Storm’s criticism, since he was sacked from first grade for this weekend – can convince me that the Storm of old would have let that game against Newcastle get away from them last weekend.
Not under any circumstances.
The Storm won’t win the premiership. I notice bookies are keeping them relatively safe at odds of $8, but that is a judgement being made on reputation more than anything.
If the Storm were being judged on form as team ‘X’ against 15 other similarly-marked teams, they would be at double-figure odds. Souths and Manly are two clubs that can at least match Melbourne for a “big three” now.
For the Rabbitohs, I see it as Inglis, obviously, Sam Burgess, quite obviously as well, and Issac Luke. For the Sea Eagles, it’s Brett Stewart, Kieran Foran and Daly Cherry-Evans.
Some people may argue the Sea Eagles actually have a big four, like the Storm used to have, if you want to throw in Jamie Lyon as well.
If I had to pick one of the big threes from Melbourne, Souths or Manly to rely on in the finals, I’d still go with the Manly trio at this stage.
I know, the Rabbitohs dined out on Manly last week and then belted Brisbane last night, with Inglis extremely prominent, but I want to see what the Sea Eagles do this weekend on the road against Gold Coast, for a start.
Manly’s game against Souths was just one game. There is a hell of a lot more to happen before anyone wins this competition.
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