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Pavlich must fire or Fremantle are finished

14th August, 2014
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Matthew Pavlich is one of the game's great champions, but will never win a flag. (Image: Slattery)
Expert
14th August, 2014
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Many premiership sides are built around a dominant key forward or two. In finals football, heightened intensity from both teams typically causes not just greater congestion but also more intense pressure on the ball carrier.

Offensive tactics which were consistently successful in the softer environment of the regular season may no longer work.

Spotting up teammates on the lead or creating a free man through overlap is less easily achieved.

When such strategies are neutralised by the opposition, sides have no option in attack but to go old school and kick the ball long to a contest inside 50 metres.

This is where key forwards like Tom Hawkins, Jarryd Roughead, Kurt Tippett, Jay Schulz and Taylor Walker earn their keep.

For Fremantle, that long option is Matthew Pavlich. The 192 centimetre, 99 kilogram spearhead has fulfilled the role brilliantly in September, with 21 goals from his last seven finals.

In last year’s finals series he was a crucial contributor for the Dockers as they burst into their first-ever grand final. Pavlich did not tear games apart, but posed a regular threat inside 50 and opened up space for his smaller teammates.

But last year he entered the finals in solid touch with two bags of four goals in the last three rounds. In 2012, when he almost single-handedly got them into a semi-final with six goals in an upset win over Geelong, he was in sublime form, having slotted 48 goals in his final 11 regular-season matches.

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This year, however, the signs are not so good. Pavlich is mired in a rare trough of his remarkably consistent career.

He has just six goals from his last five games, and three of those majors came against the floundering Greater Western Sydney, who routinely allow opposition forwards off the chain.

Last week, as his team battled to keep their top-two hopes alive, Pavlich had next to no influence against the Cats. His solitary scoring shot for the game was a behind in the dying moments when he hit the goal post after being given a chance to put Fremantle in the lead.

If Pavlich’s uninspiring form continues, the Dockers are no hope of claiming their first flag this season. Fremantle’s biggest weakness is their lack of scoring power. Without Pavlich firing it seems extremely unlikely they can overcome a likely difficult September draw – they may well have to beat both Sydney and Hawthorn away from home just to make the grand final.

In an apparent effort to boost their impact on the scoreboard, the Dockers are considering playing four small forwards this week against Hawthorn in Perth.

Dockers coach Ross Lyon said on Wednesday that Hayden Ballantyne, Hayden Crozier and Max Duffy may all play alongside returning gun goalsneak Michael Walters.

“It’s exciting,” Lyon said. “We’re not the tallest, but we could play them. They’re real offensive threats.”

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He’s right – Ballantyne and Walters, in particular, are out-and-out stars, arguably the two best small forwards in the AFL.

However, as good as that pair are, it seems improbable they can propel the Dockers to the flag on their own. Pavlich must start having a bigger impact on games, or Fremantle will fall short yet again.

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