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It’s a fine time to be an AFL fan, with two rounds to go in one of the closest and most exciting seasons in recent memory. Seven of nine wins this round were significant, and several losses as well.
The rationale in picking Winners and Losers is to look at which results shaped the league overall. Sydney easily beating St Kilda, for instance, is expected and doesn’t much affect either team’s position. Had it gone the other way, it would be noteworthy.
Fremantle produced the round’s biggest result, as well as a cracking game. Plenty of commenters and commentators had Hawthorn as favourites, but the trip to Western Australia was always going to be a factor.
The Grapes produce some inspired games on their home ground, and so it proved with a five-goal third quarter that carried them to the win. It may not end up affecting the ladder, but it marks Fremantle as contenders still, and marks Hawthorn as beatable.
Freo still can’t finish top two, and can only take third if Geelong or Hawthorn are upset in Round 23. Third would at least let them avoid a trip to Sydney, the trip to Melbourne being one they’re increasingly comfortable with.
Nor does Freo’s win change the equation below them: if Port Adelaide can handle Carlton at Adelaide Oval this weekend, their final-round game against Fremantle in Perth will still be a mini-final for fourth spot, with the margin likely to play a part given their close percentage.
Port’s rain-soaked win over Gold Coast at Metricon was a good slog, won by the handful of behinds that Port managed in scoring 7.14 to 7.5. The conditions made them dig deep, and they responded. That might help restore their run and confidence in more amenable conditions.
Geelong’s was an important win too, all but confirming their finish in second or third. Which one shouldn’t make a difference: they’ll play Hawthorn at the MCG either way for a chance at a home preliminary final.
With Carlton having improved substantially the past couple of months, it shaped as a danger game for the Cats coming the week between much more hyped contests. Just as in Round 12, Geelong rode a bit of luck to pip Carlton by a goal.
Most of the year we’ve been referencing the Cats’ luck, but beyond a certain point you can’t just put it down to fortune. Geelong have been amazing at ensuring they get the results every time. Half of their 16 wins have been by 13 points or less. They’ve played bad halves and bad quarters but they just will not go away. If they can win that first final, watch out.
Essendon’s was the most stirring win of the round, and saved their season. After a couple of losses they were on the verge of falling out of the eight, but after a run of favourable results they’ve skipped four points clear of the chasing pack.
They looked done for against a fluent West Coast side, 34 points down in the third quarter. Then they stopped the Eagles dead, kicking six of the next seven goals to finish off an unlikely comeback. The will to fight on during a trying year is one thing the club can be proud of.
I’ve neglected Brisbane in recent weeks, seeing their odd wins as little more than consolation, but it’s time they were given their due. After losing eight of their first nine games, coming back to reach seven wins for the season is an impressive achievement.
Sure, Collingwood were depleted, but the way the Lions played was magnificent. They were on the handball all night, sprinting on, sweeping wide, waves of runners outthinking and outflanking the Pies’ defence.
“Nothing’s as good as it seems, nothing’s as bad as it seems,” was the advice from coach Justin Leppitsch to his players after the game. A sound philosophy, but on this showing Brisbane can start to get excited about the future.
Greater Western Sydney and Richmond might feel similar, though the Tigers will also feel pangs of frustration. GWS didn’t let an injury plague bother them, dominating Melbourne despite leaving half a dozen of their best players at home and then losing most of their bench before half time. They notched their first win at the MCG, and beat a side three times in a row for the first time.
Richmond wrestled their way to a 10-point win over Adelaide, taking their winning streak to seven, with the eighth in their sights against St Kilda.
Brandon Ellis’ resurgent form has been influential, and the core crew of Trent Cotchin, Brett Deledio and Dustin Martin have all stood up. The Tigers have played like a complete football team. It does make you ask where this was earlier in the year.
Even an extra win or two during their poor early run would have had them deep in finals contention. It’s pretty uninspired to make jokes about Richmond finishing ninth, but it looks like they’ll just miss the cut once again.
Given their draw, Richmond should win one and lose one, ending on 44 points. So will Collingwood, Gold Coast and Adelaide. All four are fighting for eighth spot, and percentage will probably decide it. At the moment the Crows are front runners, though if Essendon contrive to lose their last two, seventh spot will open up as well.
The Crows, Pies and Suns were all big losers on the weekend. Gold Coast at home could have had Port and given themselves eighth spot clear, but lost yet again. Collingwood have been their death-spiral partners, winning two of the last nine to Gold Coast’s three from eleven.
It was the worst possible day for Collingwood, with a manic injury spree taking out Scott Pendlebury, Ben Reid, Travis Cloke and Dayne Beams – a fairly handy group of footballers. Then they were torn apart by the 15th-placed Lions, losing by 11 goals in front of a sparse crowd of home fans at the MCG.
Adelaide, meanwhile, had home ground advantage, good recent form, a crowd of 50,000 and a clear need to make their finals claim. They were excellent late in the game, fighting back to hit the lead, but conceded the last couple of goals to give up the game and remain in the ladder log jam. West Coast would have been in that 40-point mix if they’d won, and kept Essendon in it too, but Essendon played them to a standstill.
Carlton had yet another good loss, a result with which they’ll be increasingly dissatisfied. Since Round 11 they’ve played plenty of good sides, challenged them, and had losing margins including 7, 5, 8, 15, 5 and 6.
Melbourne, though, had one of the worst losses imaginable. I’m not sure I can do it justice in summary, it may require a closer look during the week. What I can say is that even continuing to watch the game after half time was an exercise in self-flagellation. Paul Roos will need to find a way to use it as inspiration, otherwise it could be another damaging lapse in the Demon psyche.