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The 2014 Geelong Cats: A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma

17th August, 2014
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17th August, 2014
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With just two rounds remaining, the Geelong Cats are currently sitting second on the AFL ladder – tied with the Swans on 16 wins and one win ahead of the Hawks. Yet the general belief among most pundits is that they don’t look close to playing at the level of the 2012 grand finalists.

So my question is, how can a team be genuine contenders for the minor premiership, but not the premiership proper?

Let’s have a look at how the Cats have been faring lately.

In Round 14, Geelong lost to the Gold Coast 118-78. But since then, they haven’t lost. Seven wins a row should always by cause for celebration, right? But it’s the way they’ve been winning that’s concerning. They’ve been good, but never great.

Since that loss to the Suns, five of the Cats’ seven victories have been by less than fifteen points. Whereas the Hawks and the Swans have been winning mostly in emphatic fashion, Geelong has been scraping by.

If you asked a random selection of AFL fans to name the best teams in the comp, the vast majority (myself included) would categorically declare Hawthorn and Sydney as premiership favourites. Some might even throw in Fremantle, especially after their 20-point victory over the Hawks last weekend. But the Cats are an anomaly.

Individually, the Cats’ players have been superb. Tom Hawkins is in the hunt for the Coleman Medal with 52 goals. Stevie Johnson has been his usual excellent self, Steven Motlop has been in great form since returning from injury, and Joel Selwood remains one of the best players (and leaders) in the competition.

So why aren’t they winning by big margins? And does this actually matter in the lead up to their finals push? Can the Cats win their fourth trophy in eight years?

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The lack of big wins might be evidence that the Cats can’t compete with the very best. However, perhaps the fact that they keep managing to win games that are so close, games that other teams might let slip away, is evidence that they are tough enough to really make a dent in this finals series.

Finals matches aren’t going to be run away victories. They are close, gritty, and tough. The Cats have proven time and again that they can win in the clutch, that they can perform in the last two minutes when a game is hanging in the balance. Just look at Friday night’s match against Carlton.

Geelong are clearly confident in their own ability. They don’t stop playing until the buzzer sounds, and play some of their best footy with mere seconds left on the clock. It’s exciting, it’s frustrating, but is it enough? I still tend to think probably not, but I have no idea why.

Of course, the big test will be next week. The Cats tackle the Hawks at the MCG, a match up that for the past five or six years has given rise to some truly sensational games of football. I think we can expect another absolute classic on Saturday.

What do you think Roarers? Can Geelong challenge Hawthorn and Sydney for the premiership in 2014?

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