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With three rounds left in the regular season, I’m struggling to nominate who the 2014 NRL premiers will be.
Though a number of teams can rightfully lay claim to some form of favouritism, the race is wide open to be the last team standing on October 5th.
While there is a lot of talent in the clubs fighting for positions in the top eight, every team in finals contention comes with some major question marks.
Manly fans will understandably refute such a notion.
Their team has been a class outfit – again – this season, which currently sees them atop the NRL ladder and primed to win the competition for the third time in seven years.
The Sea Eagles are a fantastic football team, with many quality players who know how to win big games. They’re the second best defensive unit in the league, and capable of scoring a lot of points. In Daly Cherry-Evans and Kieran Foran, they have a pair of elite-level halves, a luxury few teams in the NRL enjoy.
Throw in the additional considerations that they’re well-coached and have a fantastic spirit within the playing roster – no matter what off-field dramas surface, they always seem tight-knit – and I’d say they’re the favourites.
While that’s not exactly the boldest prediction I’ve ever made, by the same token, the Sea Eagles are a little banged up, and are not powering into the finals. They escaped with a 15-12 victory over the Titans last weekend, and were touched up by the Bunnies the week before.
Granted, they’ve been the most consistent side this season, but Friday night’s match against Parramatta looms as an important game for them to gain some momentum. They face the in-form Panthers the week after, before finishing the season against the Cowboys in North Queensland.
Win all three of those, and they’ll rightfully earn the title of overwhelming premiership favourites. Yet if they lose one or two of those games, questions will be raised about their premiership credentials.
Another top team whose credentials have been called into question is the South Sydney Rabbitohs. Though they currently sit second on the ladder, and are stacked full of talent, their critics remain loud and abundant.
Supercoach Wayne Bennett – who knows a thing or two about winning – labeled the Bunnies too predictable to win the premiership after their Round 21 match against his Knights.
Mind you, the Bunnies piled on 50 points that day to thrash Newcastle, so Wayne’s comments were ill timed. Since then, Souths have beaten Manly and annihilated Brisbane. It’s one thing to be predictable, it’s another thing to stop it.
Yet the biggest knock against Souths is their reputation of being chokers in big games.
That’s a little harsh, but such perceptions have a nasty habit of becoming reality when people – especially those involved – start to believe there might be some truth to them.
The Bunnies will therefore need to overcome not just that reputation, but also their own mental doubts if they are to end their 43-year premiership drought.
Penrith have surprised most people by surging to third spot on the ladder, and winning a number of games in impressive fashion. Five-eighth Jamie Soward is in career-best form, and coach Ivan Cleary often gives the impression that he is better prepared than his rival coaches.
My issue with the men from the foot of the Blue Mountains is an irrational, illogical and unoriginal one: I just don’t believe in them. Despite all evidence to the contrary, I don’t view them as serious premiership contenders. And while this type of disrespect has no doubt motivated the team all year long, it doesn’t change the way I feel. I just can’t see them lifting the trophy this season.
The Sydney Roosters are the defending premiers and have retained essentially the same team that was so dominant last year. Yet something has been a little off at Bondi all season. Though they are likely to still finish in the top four – no mean feat – they’ve been scratchy this year.
No NRL club has ever won back-to-back premierships, and the Brisbane Broncos were the last repeat winners, in 1992 and 1993, so history seems to be against the Chooks. Yet it’s their disjointed season that concerns me more than any statistical trend.
It’s hard to believe any team that includes Cameron Smith, Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk could be considered outsiders to win a competition, but Melbourne have struggled to live up to their usual standards in 2014. Though the Origin period always disrupts the Storm, they’ve been off the pace all year.
I’d be wary of writing the chances off of any team coached by Craig Bellamy, and $7 is great value for those who like a punt, but I’ve seen little to suggest that Melbourne will suddenly become an unbeatable beast in the last two months of season.
North Queensland have the talent to beat anyone on their day, but they remain inconsistent and haven’t totally overcome their aversion to winning in Sydney.
Plus, the NRL hates them and will go to the extreme length of forgetting how to count if it ensures the Cowboys don’t win a finals game.
The Bulldogs were the form team of the competition for the first ten rounds of the season, but a combination of a loss of form, the mental and physical effects of Origin, a lack of creativity, injuries, a pack that’s lost its venom, and the psychological impact of the departure of Michael Ennis at season’s end, have all but derailed the Dogs’ season.
Proud Doggie that I am, even I can’t force myself to predict they’ll come good at the business end of the season.
The Warriors, Parramatta, Brisbane, and even St George Illawarra are all in contention for a finals spot, but it would be a major shock if any of them won the premiership, even allowing for an epic late-season winning streak.
So I repeat my opening statement: I’m struggling to nominate who the 2014 NRL premiers will be.