We are now at the business end of proceedings for season 2014 and with three rounds remaining we have a pretty good idea who is going to make the eight and who will miss out.

So I’m going to tell you statistically just why your side is not going to win the 2014 Premiership.

Obviously The Raiders, Sharks, Knights and Titans won’t win because they can’t make the finals. While the Titans had a pretty good start to the season, and the Knights are showing some late form, the other two have had years they’d prefer forgotten.

The Wests Tigers still have a vague mathematical chance of making the finals. However, the question must be asked: what’s the point? You’ve got to question whether The Wests Tigers have the heart for the fight. They have conceded a combined score of 140-16 over the past three games.

Their for and against is a miserable minus 192 and injuries have cut a swath through a team that at times has showed real potential this year.

Their board should be relieved that there seems little chance that Mick Potter will embarrass them by getting the team into the semis. The team is in too much disarray to rally.

The St George Illawarra Dragons have finally ended their 14 year Raiders hoodoo but that is likely to be the only prize they collect in 2014. The side has the potential to win all three of their remaining games even though the last two are away to Brisbane and a rejuvenated Newcastle.

Their attack has improved significantly from 2013, when they had real difficulties breaking the line and scoring.

However, that will only really result in the side finishing a few pegs higher than their 14^th spot last year as their defence has remained as mediocre as it was in 2013.

The Brisbane Broncos are also likely to make a small improvement on their 12^th place finish from 2013. They may even sneak into the finals. The major obstacle they have to that is playing a resurgent Melbourne Storm away in the last round.

The Broncos stats in both attack and defence don’t look too bad at all this season. Their error rate and trys conceded are relatively low. In attack their line breaks and tries scored are are also good and they have the second best metre gaining side in the league.

Until recently their season was characterised by tight wins and narrow losses. However, recent large losses to Melbourne at home and the Rabbitohs away have exposed them as probable also-rans. Of their 13 games against sides in the current top eight they have only won five, and only one was away from home.

Unless Ben Barba can reprise his 2012 form and supply Ben Hunt with the playmaking support he so badly needs, the best the Broncos will probably do is an early finals exit.

The Parramatta Eels have been resurgent in 2014.

Their stats in both attack and defence have gone from diabolical to mediocre. While their eleven wins this year have equaled their win tally of 2012 and 2013 combined, they are still outside the eight with a poor for and against. Their run home isn’t great either. They’ll need to win at least two of their last three against Manly (h), Newcastle (a) and Canberra (a).

In Jarryd Hayne they have a superstar at the peak of his powers. He has broken more tackles and has the highest average meters per game of any player in the NRL this season. He is also the leading line breaker and try scorer. But one man cannot win a competition by himself.

In 2009 Nathan Hindmarsh, Nathan Cayless and Kevin Kingston were in the Eels line up and provided great starch to go with the young Hayne’s brilliance. This year his only real experienced support comes from Tim Mannah.

The other damning statistic challenging their 2014 Premiership chances is that of the 13 times they’ve played games against sides in the current top eight they have only won five of them. Of the eight losses six have been 20+ floggings. Basically the Eels great improvement in 2014 may scrape them into the finals but there is virtually no chance they can win the comp.

The New Zealand Warriors continue to be an enigma. Their stats in attack have improved out of sight in 2014. They have already scored 21 more tries this season than for the whole of their 2013 campaign. Their missed tackles have dropped and they now concede the second fewest metres in the NRL.

Their line breaks and trys conceded have plummeted in comparison to last season. They only need two more wins to ensure a spot in the finals, but that may prove difficult as they come up against the Panthers and the Roosters in their final three games.

However, while they are capable of sensational attack, led by the likes of Shaun Johnson and Konrad Hurrell, they have only won two matches against sides in the current top eight and only once have they scored more than 20 points against those opponents. Their big wins have come against the likes of strugglers Canberra and Newcastle.

They are highly unlikely to go very deep into September if they can’t beat the actual contenders.

The North Queensland Cowboys attack stats really have been quite good in 2014. They are in the top two for trys scored and are clearly the best metre gaining side in the NRL.

This season Jonathon Thurston already boasts 24 try assists and 14 line break assists. That is already two more try assists than his own NRL topping effort in 2013. He is ably assisted by Matt Scott who, with an average of 159 metres a game, is the NRL’s sixth best metre eater.

The damning statistic for the Cowboys is that they have only won two away games out of eleven this year – even the Raiders have won three on the road.

The Cowboys are on average a nine-points-a-match worse side away from their home.

As the Grand Final is played in Sydney it is unlikely that we’ll see the great Jonathon Thurston lift the trophy on final day this season.

The Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs were on top of the ladder for a while there.  After Round 18 they were on 11 wins from 16 outings.

The wheels then fell off with four consecutive losses, since that point they’ve endured four 20+ defeats and their biggest win has been by only 10 points.

Their last big win was their 38-6 win over St George Illawarra in Round 9. 

Scoring is a big problem for the Dogs. They are the 5^th lowest scorers in 2014, with seven of their twelve wins being by four points or less. They’ve made the 3^rd least line breaks, the 5^th least metres and scored the 4^th least trys in the season thus far.

At the end of the day a great defence is necessary if you want to challenge for the title, however, a powerful attack is essential – and the Dogs don’t have one.

The Melbourne Storm are currently in 5^th spot they could well finish in the top four if they win the majority of their remaining games. With road trips to Penrith and the Roosters – and a last round home match against the Broncos – they could also fall out of the eight.

Surely that can’t happen though, right?  Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk, Ryan Hoffman and Cam Smith are still superstars.  Craig Bellamy has managed to make silk purses out of sows ears with the likes of Jesse Bromwich, Proctor, Waqa and Hinchcliffe.

As well their attack is back on song with the side scoring 28+ in their last five matches.  Their defence, however, has fallen away badly. This year they are conceding 19.7 points a game on average because their line breaks and metres conceded are the 5^th worst in the 2014 NRL.

Their weakness seems to be out wide with Mahe Fonua missing nearly three tackles a game and Will Chambers nearly 2.5 a game. While the Storm have such identifiable weaknesses they are little chance to win the competition.

The Sydney Roosters had a bit of a grand final hangover at the beginning of 2014, losing four of their first six games. They’ve only lost four of their next fifteen to find themselves in the top four and well placed to attempt back-to-back titles.

Their tackle breaks, trys scored, metres gained and line breaks made are all in the top five. Further, their tries and line breaks conceded are in the bottom three.

However, they have a horror last three games coming up. Starting with the Warriors away, followed by the Storm and Rabbitohs at home. While it is very unlikely that they will miss the finals, the Roosters may find themselves in the bottom half of the eight and playing sudden death.

It is very difficult to win the title from there. However, the stat that really says that the Roosters are highly unlikely to defend their title is that no team has gone back to back for over two decades.

The last side to do so was the Broncos in 1992-93 (1997 was a split comp and doesn’t count for these purposes).

The Penrith Panthers just keep confounding the tipsters this year. Ivan Cleary’s home for waifs, strays and meat and potato players have won two thirds of their games in spite of a bad injury toll.

They’ve done it through having the third best run metres and tackle breaks this season. However, the main reason is that Ivan Cleary is a great coach and has them all singing from the same hymn book.

However, they’ve only won three games against sides currently in the top eight. Further, their run home has Melbourne and the Warriors at home, with Manly away in between.

You also have to question whether they have the star quality needed to win the big games. The main reason the Panthers are most unlikely to win this year is that they have no grand final experience in the team apart from Jamie Soward.

The last side to win a Grand Final without significant decider experience within their ranks was the Tigers in 2005 – and they were playing a side (the Cowboys) who were also inexperienced.
 
Penrith in 2003 were the last inexperienced side to win a Grand Final against a side that had plenty of experience in deciders.

The South Sydney Rabbitohs are a juggernaut. They are the best attacking side and the best defensive side statistically. After a bad start to the season where they lost three of their first four matches, they are now in second place at the business end of the season.

Further, their last five games have been emphatic victories – one of which was over the hitherto Premiership favourites Manly.

They lead the NRL for tackle breaks, as well as conceding the lowest line breaks, missed tackles, metres and tries in the competition.

However, as with Penrith, they have virtually no Grand Final experience within their ranks. In the last two seasons they’ve blown their chances to get into the decider and that lack of experience may cost them in 2014.

The Manly Warringah Sea Eaglesare ideally placed to win the Premiership this year. Sitting on top of the ladder, they are highly unlikely to miss the top four and the all important double chance.

Rumours of discord at Brookvale should be taken with a grain of salt.

The side has won eight of their last ten games and has finals and Grand Final experience to burn. While their trys and line breaks conceded are extremely good, the majority of their stats are mediocre with some downright ordinary. Their tackle breaks and metres gained are both the second worst in the NRL.

So why won’t they win in 2014? Well, age has wearied them. Six of their best players are 28 or over and they are starting to get injury prone.

Further, four times in the last 30 years sides have made consecutive Grand Finals and lost both. However, five times over the same period a side has lost one year only to come back and triumph the next.

So maybe I’m grasping at straws.