It’s nearly the end of winter and the smell of the spring carnival is just around the corner. The group 2 Warwick Stakes (1400m) at Royal Randwick is going to give us another tantalising taste of the spring.
All indicators at the moment point to a dead to heavy track for the weekend with the track currently sitting at a Heavy 9. This sways my thinking that we should be looking for a wet track expert.
Chris Waller will again dominate the field with five of the 11 runners in the race, but in my opinion he will face some stiff competition from some quality Joseph Pride runners.
Sacred Falls resumes after a great autumn campaign which saw him claim a second Doncaster Handicap in as many years. He also had an impressive second to It’s A Dundeel in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
Will run off a similar prep to previous fresh runs where he has had a couple of trials before returning to the track. Will hit the line hard after giving up a start but the track conditions will suit him to a tee.
Laser Hawk has already had three barrier trials and a run in the Group 2 Missile Stakes (1200m) a fortnight ago. He will be better for that run after coming in fresh off a 15 month spell, he found his opposition too slick but finished just 3.5 lengths behind Sweet Idea.
I think the distance is still too short for him and don’t believe we will see him win until he gets runs over the mile.
Tiger Tees is one I’m really keen on, his last campaign was super impressive winning the Group 1 Galaxy and then running third to Hana’s Goal in the Group 1 All Aged Stakes. Won the Aurie’s Star (1200m) by a head from Mr Chard.
Loves a wet track and if the weather continues into tomorrow he will certainly be among the chances, wide gate but should shoot across at the start and be in it the whole way.
Hawkspur was an intriguing runner in the autumn didn’t win a race but claimed a third in the Group 1 Chipping Norton behind Boban, and a fourth in the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes and Doncaster Handicap.
Resumed in the Group 2 Missile Stakes and worked nicely over the 1200m trip, it’s worth noting that he hasn’t run that distance since he was a two-year-old. Will enjoy the 1400m journey and hasn’t shown signs that he doesn’t like a wet track. His Chipping Norton run made it three placings in four starts when second up. Will be at a handy price and should be granted respect.
Messene was really good last prep and was second in his first run last start in the Group 2 Missile Stakes to Sweet Idea a fortnight ago. Settled on the pace and tried to sneak on the inside up the fence, has drawn more awkwardly this start but has won four from six when on a dead track.
However is yet to prove himself on a track worse than dead, worth consideration but keep an eye on the track conditions and the price quoted.
My Kingdom of Fife didn’t show much during the autumn. Worth noting it was his first preparation in over two years, he is Group 1 winner and has had two trials before his return, the old boy is now ten and I think he will be easily accounted for in this class.
Weary looks good was super impressive last preparation with placings in the Doncaster and All Aged Stakes. Returned first up in the Group 2 Missile Stakes and settled three back in the running line.
He couldn’t quicken like the leaders who ran a dominant pace. He was working home well over the final furlong and will be much better for the run. A repeat of any of his autumn runs will see him feature in the finish, has experience on slow/heavy tracks so will be the one to watch.
The ATC Derby winner Criterion returns to take on older horses for the first time. Was given a trial around a month ago so should be in forward looking condition here. Peaks following a few runs so resuming here I am interested to see how he goes, happy to go against him and see what he gives us in his first run.
Dissident was one of last season’s leading three year olds who returns after a fourteen week spell. Has run in two barrier trials in the past month and was good in both. Ran a second in his last two runs when fresh. In the Rosebud behind Eurozone and then to El Roca in the Eskimo Prince Stakes.
I reckon he will go forward and can run a cheeky race at odds, will be better for the run and we will get a good look at the future if he can run a quality race against older horses.
Last runner in the race is Royal Descent who looks a real chance, although she hasn’t won since she claimed the 2013 ATC Oaks as a three-year-old. Was close in both those runs suggesting she could be close here. History shows you need a good mare to win this race with the last female to win the race 10 years ago when Private Steer was victorious.
Streama ran second last year and a mare is well overdue, but will it be Royal Descent? Possibly.
Overview
I’m expecting Tiger Tees, Dissident and Messene to come across from wide gates and set the pace. Royal Descent and Weary will get a good go late in the race. Weary looks the good go after proving himself on wet tracks last preparation.
However those three leaders are capable of also winning, keep an eye out for a big finish from Sacred Falls and Hawkspur.
Brent Ford tips
1. Tiger Tees 2. Sacred Falls 3. Weary 4. Hawkspur
There is plenty of quality runners this week in Sydney with plenty of runners to keep an eye on. I’m keeping a look out at Randwick for Earthquake in race 4, Terravista, Bullpoint and Cluster in race 5.
While race eight will give us a good look at Green Beret, Mount Nebo, Rifleman, Biloxi and Diamond Oasis.
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