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It’s late August and the mathematical possibility term is being wheeled out as usual with the AFL approaching finals time.
Collingwood have 10 wins and are out of the eight on percentage, by a hefty one mind you, but can still make it if they beat Greater Western Sydney this week and then Hawthorn next week.
On form, they are no certainties to win either and are likely to lose to the Hawks, who may still need to win to avoid finishing fourth and therefore meeting Sydney at home in the first week of the finals.
If Collingwood do manage to win both, they need Adelaide to lose at least once against North Melbourne or St Kilda and for Richmond to go down to Sydney in the last round.
The Tigers also have a much more superior percentage than Collingwood. There is also the situation involving the Gold Coast, whose percentage is less than Collingwood’s.
If they win both against Essendon and West Coast, they put themselves back in the mix, but also rely on other results to go their way.
The West Coast Eagles are a further win behind, but have an excellent percentage. They would be favourites to defeat Melbourne and the Suns, but again winning won’t be enough.
With all due respect to Collingwood, finals are out of the question. They are not playing well enough and although teams hate using injuries as excuses, they are missing almost half their side at the moment.
Clubs like to say they have excellent depth, but when you are without star players like Scott Pendelbury, key defender Nathan Brown and lose Dane Beams and Travis Cloke during the match as they did in the big loss to Brisbane, they can’t be covered.
It looks set to be the first time since 2005 that Collingwood will miss the finals, and it will be tough for this famous club to take, but it might be time for a sort of rebuild.
You could say they require a refurbishment – if rebuild is too drastic a term – and they have an excellent batch of young players that all have fine futures.
There’s the top ten draft picks, Matthew Scharenberg and Nathan Freeman, who haven’t seen any action yet, along with Tim Broomhead, who has shown a bit late in the season.
Taylor Adams was sore after from GWS and has plenty of improvement in him being a top 15 pick a few years ago, and there’s also young ruckman Brodie Grundy, who has suffered at times this year from the second year blues but has already shown he can lead their ruck division for many years to come.
There are issues with their key defenders in Jack Frost and Lachlan Keefe. They are definetely works in progress, while Tom Langdon has certainly been a highlight.
The Pies would admit that their recruiting of players from other clubs has let them down in recent years with Jesse White and Quentin Lynch in particular not working, and they may need to again target a key forward and an experienced key defender.
Michael Talia from the Western Bulldogs, who is out of favour after showqing promise last season, could be one tall they could consider.
It’s unchartered territory for Collingwood that they appear certain not to feature in September action, but if they are fit and firing and can also work on their kicking skills, which has been another major disappointment, expect them to be in the finals mix in 2015.
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