- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
The Wallabies will take on the All Blacks in the second game of the 2014 Bledisloe Cup at Eden Park in Auckland. Join The Roar for live scores and commentary from 5:30pm (AEST).
So the first round is done and dusted, and Australia and New Zealand ended up as kissing cousins.
On a very wet Sydney night it was Australia that made most of the play and New Zealand who escaped with a draw after being under pressure for the last ten minutes, camped inside their defence.
» Stay up-to-date with all the latest Bledisloe Cup news
» Bledisloe Cup fixtures
» Bledisloe Cup results
» Bledisloe Cup teams
Ewen McKenzie has made no changes to his matchday 23 that played last weekend whereas Steve Hansen faced a few forced changes, centre Ma’a Nonu is out with a shoulder injury, similarly is blindside Jerome Kaino with an elbow injury.
Watch live on TEN with expert commentators Gordon Bray and Matt Burke
The good news for the All Blacks is that Conrad Smith has survived the birth of his first born, a healthy young lad weighing in at an undisclosed number of pounds.
Smith has been called back into the squad and will be partnered with Ryan Crotty who replaces Ma’a Nonu. Liam Messam has been promoted to replace Jerome Kaino.
Although the All Blacks may lose a little in physicality, Messam does provide some extra pace in the back row and Ryan Crotty may not be the same physical specimen as Ma’a Nonu, but is a smart player nonetheless.
So what can we expect at Eden Park?
Hopefully better conditions, which should improve the chances of both teams to attack more and execute better.
Australia hasn’t won at Eden Park since 1986, in fact the last time Australia tasted victory on New Zealand soil was in 2011.
In spite of having the odds stacked against them the Wallabies will be confident. When looking at the data compiled by OPTA Sports, they made more metres, hit more rucks, beat many more defenders and missed fewer tackles than the All Blacks.
But, they should not get carried away, those statistics tells us that Australia made more of the play, but there are three crucial facets where the All Blacks had the upper hand.
The All Blacks won the breakdown battle, in specific the turnovers, securing ten more than the Wallabies’ four.
New Zealand was also more accurate at the lineout, losing only three versus the Wallabies four.
The scrum was admittedly not well officiated by Jaco Peyper with controversy over the last few scrums, but in spite of that New Zealand had a 100 per cent scrum success rate versus the Wallabies with 80 per cent.
Perhaps the reason for New Zealand’s success at the breakdown is thwarted by their penalties conceded, 11 defensive penalties versus the Wallabies three.
During the match New Zealand conceded 17 penalties to the Wallabies’ 10, an area Steve Hansen is sure to have worked on this week.
New Zealand will have to pick up their game if they are to beat this resurgent Wallaby side. Australia will have to pick up their game at the breakdown, line out and scrums.
Ultimately on a drier pitch the All Blacks will be able to execute with less error and play more positively, Conrad Smith will improve the defensive organisation of New Zealand and certainly their attacking prowess from midfield.
Israel Folau will hope to link more with Curtly Beale who has been retained in the number ten jersey, and drier conditions will definitely suit them better.
The battle of the breakdown will be a determining factor in this match, an area Australia will have to lift in order to reduce the turnovers. Keiran Read has been uncharacteristically low on form this past few weeks, if he raises his game to a higher level, the chance of victory will become even more of a challenge for Australia.
Scott Fardy will also need to pick his game up, conceding two penalties and completing only four tackles in the match with eight runs and an aggregate of only 11 metres isn’t exactly what Ewen McKenzie would be expecting from him.
On the other hand it does seem as if Richie McCaw’s cloak of invisibility is fading, his three penalties conceded is testament to that.
Prediction:
Australia will be guns ablaze in this match and expect them to increase the pace of the play as much as possible.
New Zealand will continue their effectiveness at the breakdown and their ability to remain calm under pressure and seek the opportunities to counter will ultimately allow them to come through stronger in the end, and pip the Wallabies by a score.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.