The Roar
The Roar

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Cats are top-four quality, but can't win the flag

24th August, 2014
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24th August, 2014
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It was the second weekend in July when Port Adelaide slid out of the top four, and Geelong crept in. From that moment on, it was merely a case of the best four teams in the competition jockeying for starting finals positions.

Port can grab fourth place if they win next weekend, and admittedly they looked like they had returned to being a smart outfit with the shackles off last Friday night against Carlton.

But that was only Carlton, it was at home in front of a record crowd, and it won’t happen again next Saturday night in Perth against the Dockers.

We saw last week what Fremantle can do on their home patch when they made Hawthorn look feeble at times. And while they will miss Nat Fyfe again next Saturday, we also saw yesterday what a lethal combination Hayden Ballantyne and Michael Walters may be for the Dockers during September.

I’m risking egg on my face, but Port can’t match it across the park against Fremantle, and the Dockers will then be a big show of upsetting the Swans in Sydney the week after.

The penultimate home-and-away round really didn’t tell us too many things we didn’t already really know. Richmond as expected crept into the eight, Essendon secured their finals berth, while the Buddy Franklin inspired Sydney now have the minor premiership virtually in their keeping.

But the Hawthorn versus Geelong game told me one thing – actually, reassured me when I was starting to doubt… Geelong can’t win the flag.

They have done tremendously well to finish in the top four, may reach the preliminary final, but won’t go any further.

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They could have and should have buried Hawthorn on Saturday after being five goals up at one point. The old Cats would have, and while credit must go to Hawthorn, it was the Geelong performance which was most revealing.

The Hawks had answers everywhere in the second half against an at times insipid Geelong attack.

Geelong coach Chris Scott said after game that it was still “a step forward in our preparation”, and “we’ll learn some things from tonight. In that respect, it’s kind of mission accomplished”.

I don’t know if he’d be that positive and kind with his players behind closed doors though.

And I don’t buy into suggestions the Cats eased off in the second half knowing that regardless of the result they would be meeting the Hawks in the first week of the finals.

On that performance, the Cats can’t beat the Hawks in that final. Lose and they face a sudden-death semi final the week after, and then if they win that game, they would have to travel to either Sydney or Perth for the preliminary final. They won’t be winning at either venue.

The good news for Tigers fans is that you won’t suffer your boys finishing in ninth position. Again, risking an egg facial, I don’t think they’ll make the eight – they will finish tenth.

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Yesterday’s game against St Kilda was a difficult one. The Tigers needed the win, but once it was pretty much secured, how could they not think about next week. But I didn’t see enough yesterday or in the past few weeks to be honest, to suggest they can come to Sydney and beat the Swans in the form the red and whites are in.

I can’t see Collingwood winning against Hawthorn, but both Adelaide and West Coast should get wins against St Kilda and the Gold Coast respectively, which by my calculations will put the Eagles into eighth, the Crows ninth, and the Tigers tenth.

Next Monday morning, you could be reading my column written after I have peeled the yolk from my face. But then again, you could be reading it while Richmond start their Mad Monday, Fremantle get ready to head to Sydney, and Port prepare to host the West Coast.

See you in seven days.

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