Ladies and gentlemen, we have arrived. The final round of the regular season is upon us and almost each match will play a key role in determining the final order of the ladder for season 2014.
With seven finalists already confirmed, the last place in the eight will be fiercely contested with Richmond, Collingwood, West Coast Eagles and Adelaide Crows still in the hunt.
Let’s take a look at each match in detail, and see how the final ladder is projected to look after the end of 23 rounds, as well as a look at the likely draw for the first week of the finals.
Collingwood versus Hawthorn
Anything Greater Western Sydney could do, Collingwood could do better last week. That was the case when the Pies came from behind to win by eight points.
The question is whether the Pies can do it all again against top-two certainties Hawthorn, who still remain in with a small chance to snatch the minor premiership from the Sydney Swans. Alastair Clarkson’s men will be expected to show no mercy as they warm up for another likely tilt at the Cats in the first round of the finals.
The Hawks will be wary of an injury-ravaged Pies whose finals hopes are on life support. But given their recent dominance against them, in which they have won their last six matches convincingly, the Hawks will be expected to get the job done this Friday night and sentence the Pies to their first September without finals since 2005.
To snatch the minor premiership from the Swans, the Hawks must beat Collingwood by at least five goals, then hope John Longmire’s men get thrashed by Richmond.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 40 points.
Carlton versus Essendon
This match between two traditional rivals will unfortunately be seen by many as a dead rubber, given Carlton cannot make the finals.
After being the beneficiary of Essendon’s disqualification from last year’s finals, Mick Malthouse’s men have endured a disappointing season on the field, coming to a head when Port Adelaide thrashed them by 103 points last Friday night.
And while they will finish in the bottom six, they would love nothing more than to give finals-bound Essendon a wake-up call to finish off the season.
The Bombers have had to contend with a season of uncertainty as far as the ASADA investigation was concerned, but unlike the NRL’s Cronulla Sharks Mark Thompson’s men have not allowed the ongoing saga to affect their performances on the field.
The club will play finals footy for only the third time since 2004, and they cannot afford to slip up ahead of a likely showdown against North Melbourne next week.
Prediction: Essendon by 30 points.
Fremantle versus Port Adelaide
This shapes as the most interesting match of the round, whereby the winner will likely have to travel to Sydney to take on the Swans in the first round of the finals, while the loser gets to host an elimination final.
Fremantle remain in the box seat to secure a top four place. However, they will be wary of a Port Adelaide side which stormed back into form with a 103-point thrashing of Carlton on the Friday night.
After a patch of poor form, bookended by losses to the Sydney Swans, the Power’s top four hopes appeared all but shot. However, two subsequent wins have revived their chances.
However, Ken Hinkley’s men will have to contend with what is expected to be a pro-Fremantle crowd hoping to cheer their team to more success in 2014 after finishing runners-up to Hawthorn last year.
Prediction: Fremantle by 25 points.
Sydney Swans versus Richmond
Both the Sydney Swans and Richmond have everything to play for on Saturday afternoon. The Swans are after their first minor premiership since 1996, while the Tigers are guaranteed a finals berth if they win this match.
The Swans are the strongest-placed team to finish on top of the ladder for the first time in 18 years, and it would perfectly bookend an era in which the club has only missed the finals just three times, and won two flags from four grand final appearances.
But, in saying that, John Longmire’s men will be expected to remain successful for many more years to come, with their controversial acquisition of Lance Franklin being vindicated in more ways than one.
The 27-year-old remains on track to win a third consecutive Coleman Medal this year, but would have to hope that Jarryd Roughead doesn’t kick a large haul against the Pies.
Meanwhile, Richmond simply need to win to lock up the top eight for season 2014, and sentence the Eagles, Suns and Crows to playing for pride on Sunday.
There’s also the chance that the Tigers could lose and still make the finals, given none of Collingwood, West Coast or Adelaide win, while even victory for the Gold Coast Suns will not be enough due to their poor percentage.
So will the Tigers win and shut the door on the Suns, Eagles and Crows for 2014, or could they still finish in that all-too-familiar position of ninth?
Prediction: Sydney Swans by 30 points.
Geelong Cats versus Brisbane Lions
Last week’s loss to Hawthorn has all but ended the Cats’ top-two hopes for 2014, but there’s still the chance that Chris Scott’s men could finish second if the Hawks are upset by injury-hit Collingwood.
Otherwise, the Cats will be playing for third place on the ladder, and a possible rematch against the Hawks, when they clash with the Brisbane Lions at Simonds Stadium on Saturday night.
In their favour is the fact that the Lions have not won at Simonds Stadium since 2003, and are coming off a 58-point hiding by Fremantle at the Gabba. For Justin Leppitsch’s men, it is the end of an era, with not one single player from any of its hat-trick of flags from 2001 to 2003 still playing.
Anyway, after a poor first half of the season, the Lions are starting to find their run under the triple-premiership winning defender, splitting their last twelve games since their Round 10 bye, including defeating Collingwood at the MCG in Round 21.
But the question will remain – can they upset the Cats on their home turf, like they almost did in the corresponding fixture last year? The answer is no.
Prediction: Geelong Cats by 34 points.
North Melbourne versus Melbourne
For the Melbourne Demons, this Saturday night’s match against finals-bound North Melbourne represents their last chance to completely avoid the wooden spoon.
It has been another long season for Paul Roos’ men and fatigue has contributed to the side losing their last nine games, a streak which started with a a 41-point loss to the Kangaroos in Round 14.
Brad Scott’s men have said that they will treat this match as a finals warm-up, meaning the result could potentially be ugly for the Demons, who have not won at Etihad Stadium against anyone since Round 19, 2007.
All they can do is stay competitive for most of the match, but the Kangaroos will offer no mercy, especially with the finals just around the corner.
Prediction: North Melbourne by 50 points.
Gold Coast Suns versus West Coast Eagles
Just three months ago the Gold Coast Suns were flying high in the top four, and many predicted that it would finally translate into a maiden finals appearance.
However, since Round 10 the club has won just three games, lost their skipper Gary Ablett Jr for the season in Round 16 and crashed out of finals contention, falling to 12th.
It seems like the season can’t come to an end quite soon enough for the Suns, who welcome a West Coast Eagles side whose finals hopes only remain alive if Collingwood and Richmond lose earlier in the round.
Still, they would have to defeat the Suns in what will be their first ever trip to Metricon Stadium (and first to the Gold Coast since 2008), making them the last of the 17 clubs to play on the ground since its redevelopment in 2011.
Prediction: West Coast Eagles by 24 points.
Adelaide Crows versus St Kilda
Depending on how Collingwood, Richmond and the Eagles fare earlier this round, the Adelaide Crows will enter this match either with one last chance to make the finals, or to start preparing for season 2015.
The Crows have dropped their last two matches to fall out of the eight, both by less than 10 points, when victories would have seen them shut up shop on the eight.
Add to that a three-game losing streak to start this season and that will conspire against the Crows as they appear set to miss the finals for the fourth time in five seasons since the end of 2009.
This Sunday they will welcome last-placed St Kilda, who are still in with a chance to avoid the wooden spoon. For Alan Richardson’s men it will be the final AFL game for Lenny Hayes, and the club will be desperate to send him out a winner in front of what is expected to be a packed Adelaide Oval.
While the Saints would love to win one last time for Hayes, but unfortunately the Crows will prove to be a handful as they seek to end their own season on a high.
Prediction: Adelaide Crows by 30 points.
Western Bulldogs versus Greater Western Sydney Giants
The regular season concludes on Sunday afternoon with a twilight game between the Western Bulldogs and Giants at Etihad Stadium.
It has been another season of disappointment for the Bulldogs, but the low finishes they have endured under Brendan McCartney have come with a silver lining – high draft picks and promising stars, such as Marcus Bontempelli.
Having won seven games all year, the Bulldogs will hope to match their 2013 total (eight) against an injury-ravaged GWS Giants side. But come Sunday Leon Cameron’s men will be intent on breaking their Etihad Stadium hoodoo with a victory in the final game of the season.
However, the Bulldogs’ experience should make them favourites in this one.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 20 points.
And now, should the results in this round go as I predict, the final ladder finals draw will be as follows.
1. Sydney Swans
2. Hawthorn
3. Geelong Cats
4. Fremantle
5. Port Adelaide
6. North Melbourne
7. Essendon
8. West Coast Eagles
9. Adelaide Crows
10. Richmond
11. Collingwood
12. Gold Coast Suns
13. Western Bulldogs
14. Carlton
15. Brisbane Lions
16. GWS Giants
17. Melbourne
18. St Kilda
Qualifying finals
Sydney Swans versus Fremantle, ANZ Stadium
Hawthorn versus Geelong Cats, Melbourne Cricket Ground
Elimination finals
Port Adelaide versus West Coast Eagles, Adelaide Oval
North Melbourne versus Essendon, Melbourne Cricket Ground or Etihad Stadium*
*If the two Victorian finals are played on the same day, the North Melbourne versus Essendon final may be moved to Etihad Stadium to allow the MCG to cater for the Hawthorn versus Geelong Cats final. Otherwise, it will remain at the MCG.
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