Preview of AFL Round 23 matches (all times AEST).
FRIDAY, Aug 29
Collingwood v Hawthorn at MCG 7.50pm
Head to Head: Magpies 96 Hawks 62
Last clash: Round 14 2014 – Hawks 17.13 (115) bt Magpies 13.8 (86) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Magpies $9.50 Hawks $1.06
Sportingbet: Magpies $9.00 Hawks $1.07
With 19 players on their injured list this week, Collingwood’s chances of downing the Hawks and sneaking into the top eight appear remote – but at least they’re still alive. An upset win, and Richmond losing to Sydney, will deliver the Pies a finals berth for a ninth straight season. But the Hawks, tuning up for their premiership defence, won’t be in a generous mood. Hawthorn remarkably have three forwards in the competition’s top nine goalkickers – Jarryd Roughead (58), Luke Breust (52) and Jack Gunston (46) – too many weapons for the Magpies to quell.
Key: Can Collingwood find an attacking threat? With Travis Cloke sidelined, the onus falls on Josh Thomas, who booted three goals last-start to be a game-breaking forward – not an easy task against experienced Hawk backmen Brian Lake and Josh Gibson.
Tip: Hawks by 54 points
SATURDAY, Aug 30
Carlton v Essendon at MCG 1.45pm
Head to Head: Blues 121 Bombers 114 drawn 5
Last clash: Round 3 2014 – Bombers 21.12 (138) bt Blues 8.9 (57) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Blues $3.15 Bombers $1.36
Sportingbet: Blues $2.75 Bombers $1.45
Carlton coach Mick Malthouse concedes his Blues are limping to the finish line of their season, with injuries taking a heavy toll. Their arch rivals Essendon are likely to finish seventh and will delight in ending the Blues’ year on a sour note. The Bombers have trump cards in Brendon Goddard, captain Jobe Watson and versatile Michael Hurley hitting their straps, and their high-possession style spells trouble for Carlton, who have the least amount of disposals of any side in the competition.
Key: Enigmatic Blues forward Jarrad Waite looms as the dangerman for Essendon, but will he get enough scoring opportunities to make a difference?
Tip: Bombers by 60 points
Fremantle v Port Adelaide at Patersons Stadium 3.10pm
Head to Head: Dockers 12 Power 15
Last clash: Round 8 2014 – Power 13.16 (94) bt Dockers 11.10 (76) at Adelaide Oval
Tab Sportsbet: Dockers $1.45 Power $2.75
Sportingbet: Dockers $1.45 Power $2.75
Premiership hopes for both clubs hang on this result. The winner takes fourth spot and a double chance into the finals, the loser finishes fifth and faces sudden-death finals. Fremantle and Port are both timing their runs perfectly, though the Power have a poor recent record in Perth: they haven’t beaten the Dockers there since 2008, with an average losing margin of 53 points since then. But Port average the most inside 50s of any club this season and have the forward firepower to worry the stingy Fremantle defence.
Key: Port’s Robbie Gray is being dubbed Disney – wherever he goes, magic happens. Fresh from winning the coaches association champion player award, his likely duel with Freo tagger Ryan Crowley will be decisive.
Tip: Dockers by 10 points
Sydney v Richmond at ANZ Stadium 4.40pm
Head to Head: Swans 85 Tigers 103 drawn 1
Last clash: Round 14 2014 – Swans 9.8 (62) bt Tigers 7.9 (51) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Swans $1.33 Tigers $3.35
Sportingbet: Swans $1.33 Tigers $3.35
All or nothing for the fast-finishing Tigers: win, they’re in the finals; lose, expect to be tipped out of eighth spot. Richmond have won eight games in a row but confront a Swans outfit to finish top after the club’s most successful home and away season ever, with 17 wins already. Sydney remain the league’s best defensive outfit, and they win more contested possessions than any other side, though they’ll be wary of the Tiger midfield headed by Brett Deledio, Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin.
Key: Can Richmond control Sydney star Lance Franklin, who is in red-hot form and will sew up a Coleman medal for the competition’s leading goalkicker. Tiger Alex Rance is the candidate for the toughest task in the AFL.
Tip: Swans by 20 points
North Melbourne v Melbourne at Etihad Stadium 7.40pm
Head to Head: Kangaroos 71 Demons 83 drawn 1
Last clash: Round 14 2014 – Kangaroos 15.17 (107) bt Demons 10.6 (66) at MCG
Tab Sportsbet: Kangaroos $1.06 Demons $9.50
Sportingbet: Kangaroos $1.08 Demons $8.00
Melbourne may just avoid the wooden spoon but appear a long way from challenging sides like the Kangaroos, who are set for sixth spot. North’s slick ball use is their feature, with only Essendon boasting a better disposal efficiency this season. Melbourne’s defence has been sound enough but their lack of scoring power is glaring: they have kicked the fewest points this season and their leading goalkicker is Chris Dawes with a lowly total of 18 majors. Expect the Kangas to tune-up for the finals with a whopping win.
Key: North’s Jack Ziebell slotted four goals from nine shots in last week’s win against the Crows, adding scoring power to his ball-winning abilities. He must be silenced for the Demons to sniff an upset.
Tip: Kangaroos by 80 points
Geelong v Brisbane Lions at Simonds Stadium 7.40pm
Head to Head: Cats 23 Lions 18 drawn 1
Last clash: Round 2 2014 – Cats 13.15 (93) bt Lions 10.8 (68) at Gabba
Tab Sportsbet: Cats $1.07 Lions $8.50
Sportingbet: Cats $1.13 Lions $6.00
Geelong’s weakness remains clearances – even though they’re a premiership fancy, they rank last in the league in clearance stats. But the Cats remain feared, particularly on their home turf where Brisbane haven’t won since 2003. An expected victory will deliver Geelong second or third spot on the ladder. The Lions have made much ground in the latter half of the year but cough up big scores against, with only two clubs conceding more points. A loss will leave the Lions in 15th position.
Key: Brisbane ruckman Stefan Martin is winning the taps and getting a heap of possessions in a break-out season, but can his midfielders exploit the Cats’ clearance fragility?
Tip: Cats by 72 points
SUNDAY, Aug 31
Gold Coast v West Coast at Metricon Stadium 1.10pm
Head to Head: Suns 0 Eagles 4
Last clash: Round 13 2014 – Eagles 15.13 (103) bt Suns 15.10 (100) at Patersons Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Suns $3.00 Eagles $1.40
Sportingbet: Suns $2.90 Eagles $1.42
The Eagles can pinch eighth spot with a win but need other results to fall their way. There are plenty of scenarios but West Coast must overcome the Suns, who have been gallant in recent defeats to certain finalists Port and Essendon. But Gold Coast’s finals chances have been blighted by skill errors: they have the worst disposal efficiency in the competition, and even if they win, poor percentage will prevent them from playing finals.
Key: West Coast’s attack is the danger, with Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling and Mark LeCras, who kicked four goals last week in a comeback after a two-game absence, a trio that demand close attention.
Tip: Eagles by 30 points
Adelaide v St Kilda at Adelaide Oval 3.20pm
Head to Head: Crows 21 Saints 15 drawn 1
Last clash: Round 4 2014 – Crows 20.16 (136) bt Saints 7.8 (50) at Etihad Stadium
Tab Sportsbet: Crows $1.03 Saints $13.00
Sportingbet: Crows $1.04 Saints $11.00
Adelaide will know early in this game whether they’re a finals chance – if Collingwood, Richmond and West Coast lose, they’re a chance to steal eighth spot. The inconsistent Crows have blown chances to secure a finals spot by losing to the Tigers and Kangaroos in the past fortnight. But Adelaide, with their influential ruckman Sam Jacobs in All Australian form, should comfortably account for the struggling Saints, who are destined to end the season with the wooden spoon for the first time since 2000.
Key: Adelaide’s fate could rest on banking a big win, meaning key forward Taylor Walker or his sidekick Eddie Betts must kick a bag of goals.
Tip: Crows by 48 points
Western Bulldogs v Greater Western Sydney at Etihad Stadium 4.40pm
Head to Head: Bulldogs 3 Giants 0
Last clash: Round 4 2014 – Bulldogs 17.8 (110) bt Giants 12.11 (83) at Manuka Oval
Tab Sportsbet: Bulldogs $1.28 Giants $3.75
Sportingbet: Bulldogs $1.28 Giants $3.60
The sole match with no bearing on the top eight, the Bulldogs enter as favourites to chalk an eighth win of the season against the young Giants, who have banked five victories in their best season to date – but are yet to defeat the Dogs. Western Bulldogs will have added motivation to send off retiring stalwart Daniel Giansiracusa in style. The Giants have undoubtedly improved and are ranked fourth in the league for centre clearances but still leak large scores – only St Kilda have conceded more points this year.
Key: Giant Toby Greene amassed 42 disposals last start and is averaging 33 touches a game in the past six weeks. If the Dogs can keep a tight leash on him, they’ll go a long way to winning.
Tip: Bulldogs by 36 point
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