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Memsie Stakes 2014: Horse-by-horse preview and tips

Boban will face tough competition at the Futurity Stakes. (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Roar Guru
28th August, 2014
5

This time honoured race really does make it official – Spring racing has begun!

The Memsie Stakes only achieved Group 1 status last year, but it has been won by some champion horses in recent times.

Atlantic Jewel, So You Think, Weekend Hussler, Makybe Diva and Sunline (twice), have all won this race since the start of the new millennium, and 6 of the last 12 Cox Plate winners have started their Spring campaign in this race.

Historically
Seven mares have won the Memsie over the last 14 years. Three have been entered this time, and two in particular look a realistic chance of winning.

Ideally you want to be on a horse from a single digit barrier, and it’s pertinent that no horse has won this race off a Sydney run prior in the past 20 years.

Because it is now a Group 1 race perhaps we are seeing a new dawn in regards to the type of horse that will win.

In the past it has largely been dominated by a horse aiming for the big Group 1 staying races, but it now becomes a perfect target for a quality sprinter that can utilise early pace and greater acceleration at the shorter trips.

Last year’s winner, Atlantic Jewel, had been unbeaten from five runs between 1100-1400m coming into the race, and she raced near the pace throughout.

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Tempo
Two horses are likely to set the speed here.

The mare Sweet Idea has to overcome a wide a barrier and will be looking to lead early. Moment of Change has to do same and is likely to settle second or third in the run, with Messene looking to hold a forward position from his ideal barrier.

Dissident should be prominent early, as should the outsider Gig, with both these horses drawn well. Silent Achiever might struggle to utiise her inside barrier along with Puissance De Lune and Happy Trails, who are also drawn in close.

Given those horses are likely to get back and then require luck in running, the likely favourite Boban might be advantaged given he has drawn a bit wider. It would be very wise if Glyn Schofield keeps him away from the rails early to let him close late down the outside in the straight in clear running.

Sertorius is very likely to get caught wide given he is drawn wide and possibly unable to muster enough early speed. Super Cool will almost certainly settle back in the field but could also be advantaged late in the race from a wider barrier.

Given the early jostling for positions from speed runners drawn wide I’m expecting a tempo that will afford every horse a winning chance. However, this is Caulfield and the 1400m distance here is better suited to on-pace horses, who are not likely to get caught wide early.

Form comments
Happy Trails doesn’t win out of turn and after an indifferent first-up performance in Adelaide I’d prefer to see him go around in this. As he is getting older it is quite probable that he is better suited at 1600m and beyond so he should be starting to peak after this hit-out.

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Boban looks the goods here. He is two from two in Melbourne, and but for missing the start first-up in the Missile he would have won for sure. He was the only horse to really make ground on the leaders in that race, running stunning late sectionals – always a good sign for a subsequent run.

He just needs to stay in touch early, get a decent tempo up front, and to be ridden in a sensible manner. Hard to fault him bar the fact that trainer Chris Waller might not want him peaking yet, given the bleeding ban hanging over him.

Moment Of Change has the best 1400m credentials in this race and he is four from four at this track and distance. Trainer Peter Moody warned that he might not be ready first up (albeit off an impressive trial win), and you’d have to say he was a tad disappointing on the day. He had a big weight though and raced wide throughout. He has drawn a bit awkwardly in this too, but will be prominent early, providing he jumps well from the barriers.

This is a race Peter Moody will want to win with him, whereas a lot of these horses are being prepared for a long spring and greater distances.

Super Cool did well in this race last year, only beaten 2.5 lengths by Atlantic Jewel, finishing alongside It’s A Dundeel. He hasn’t raced since November last year though and this is not his best distance. Look for him to show something late in the race to give his supporters something to enthuse about for the Spring.

Sertorius is what you would call a ‘late bloomer’ at this level and has been very well handled by his trainer. He is an honest horse and could be a real contender for the Spring if he can maintain the improvement he showed late last year. He was excellent first-up in the Autumn, when beaten by less than half a length by Moment Of Change.

A repeat of that gives him a place chance here but a wide barrier and the quality he is up against might make things a bit too difficult.

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Puissance De Lune was very average first up in the PB Lawrence and it’s hard to know what to expect here given he has come back from a serious injury. He should get a nice economical run from a better barrier this time, and it would be nice to see him run on hard late. Hard to say he can win though.

Messene ran very well first up in the Missile in Sydney, though he did have every chance to peg back the leader off a beaut run in transit. This is a better distance for him and he has an excellent record second up. He has also drawn the ideal barrier and probably ‘maps’ better than any other horse.

He started his career in Victoria, having two runs in this direction for one win. He has placed at this level, now it’s just a matter of whether he can win a Group 1 race at weight-for-age. He is probably going to be better suited over slightly further, and with less weight in a handicap, but he will be competitive.

Dissident was withdrawn from the Warwick Stakes last week to prepare for this, though trainer Peter Moody said Moment Of Change is the better chance of his two runners. On what we have seen from him he might be a length or two shy of winning a WFA race, but he should be near the pace in this, and does go okay first up. His form suggests he does go better on the fresh side. Could be a surprise packet but second-up he might have even better claims.

Silent Achiever should not be underestimated despite her ultimate goal being the Melbourne Cup. She should have placed in this race last year (was unlucky in the straight) and the two or three lengths improvement she showed during her stellar Autumn seems due to the addition of blinkers. She is four from five with them applied and three of those wins have been at Group 1 level.

She won first-up last preparation (1500m in New Zealand), and the blinkers are still on here. From an ideal barrier she should get a very nice run in the race and will just need a bit of luck at the right time. At her best she is possibly better than all of these at 2000m, but whether she can sprint as well as some at 1400m is questionable.

Gig does really seem to be making up the numbers here. She went surprisingly well in the PB Lawrence but there are far better sprinters in this race than what she met there. Has fitness on her side but that can only take you so far.

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Sweet Idea gets the ideal three-week break I talked about in my Missile Stakes review. That is good management by Gai Waterhouse and it might pay dividends if she can get across from a wide barrier, and settle into a rhythm early. She was able to overcome a wide barrier last start, and has done so on two other occasions when winning.

She is very honest and although she is yet to start in this direction the Caulfield circuit looks to be suited to her racing style. Pretty sure she will look the winner in the straight, and whoever beats her might be the winner. Early pressure, or lack of it, will probably decide her fate in the race, but if she is anywhere near her best she will fight the race out to the bitter end.

Summation
1. Moment Of Change
Four from four track and distance record is hard to ignore and should be peaking as a sprinter at his best trip. History supports him given he did run in Melbourne last start.

2. Boban
Just needs a good ride and to overcome the hoodoo of a last-start Sydney runner not winning this race.

3. Sweet Idea
Perfect break between runs and will make her own luck early. Very honest and mares have a good record in this race.

4. Silent Achiever
Not to be underestimated given her form in blinkers, first-up win in New Zealand last preparation, and the fact she too is a mare.

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