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Next weekend’s Test against the Springboks is pivotal for the struggling Wallabies.
After a loss to England, the end of year tour provided some solid wins and confidence in the coach.
This was followed up by a good 3-0 series win over the French, with two of the three wins impressive by any measure.
Against the All Blacks in Sydney, Australia were the better team and deserved to win, but couldn’t close the deal.
So after a disappointing Rugby Championship in 2013, the Wallabies had real momentum and a string of quality results in the bank. Despite a lack of success against the three top-ranked teams, the Wallabies looked on track.
But all that optimism and progress was ground into the Eden Park turf a week ago. Suddenly the previous eight games were cast in the shadow of not just the Eden Park loss, but the nature of the loss.
In the Robbie Deans era, the Wallabies won nine of fourteen Tests against the Springboks and four of six against England. But their record against the All Blacks was poor, and that was a large part of the dissatisfaction with Deans as the coach.
While victories against the All Blacks were thin on the ground, the record against the other top teams was better than average. Ultimately the results were considered not good enough, the team played ‘unAustralian’ rugby, and the coach was a bit off getting the culture right in the team.
Deans overall did a good job, but moving back to a local coach is better for Australian rugby in the long run – provided the team can get some results against the heavyweights of rugby and do it soon.
McKenzie’s record against the above three opposition is played eight lost seven drawn one. Ouch.
While some leeway can be given – with McKenzie took over the team mid-year, both the Boks and All Blacks were very good in 2013, and England was first up on the northern tour – the leeway-o-meter has now run too nil.
If the Wallabies can produce a satisfying performance against the Springboks at home, then Eden Park can be viewed as a one-off bad game against a really great All Black performance.
Next Saturday is critical. The Boks have been less than impressive, not only against the Pumas, but also in June Tests against Wales. It is the home Test against the Boks and the resolve among the Wallabies must be high as they look to prove their worth.
The odds for a win here are about as good as they will get against the Springboks, but if the Wallabies don’t win or at least provide a creditable performance, then the questions from the media and rugby public will be tough to answer.
Are the Wallabies in better shape now or with the previous coach? Are they building towards a serious tilt at the 2015 World Cup or just better now at beating teams ranked below the top three?
A loss in Perth would have some asking if maybe sticking with Deans would have provided a more competitive team with a better shot at winning the big prize next year. And that would not be a healthy or productive thought or discussion in any form.
To put it in simple terms, this is Ewen McKenzie’s first must-win match.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.