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Manly's narrow win puts their campaign back on track

31st August, 2014
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The Sea Eagles take on the Panthers in the NYC grand final. (AAP Image/Action Photographics, Robb Cox)
Expert
31st August, 2014
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Manly’s stunning comeback to beat Penrith yesterday has saved their season. Whether that translates into a premiership remains to be seen, but at least they’ve got the kick-start their campaign desperately needed.

Had the Sea Eagles not won yesterday – and it is still amazing they got out of the jam they were in, first trailing 24-12 with twenty minutes to go and then 25-18 with seven minutes left – they would have been in an awful space.

Their form-line over the last four rounds would have read a loss to South Sydney (23-4), a narrow win over battling Gold Coast (15-12), a loss to Parramatta (22-12) and a loss by whatever score it ended up against the Panthers.

They would have been sitting third on the competition table, instead of the first place they do inhabit, with a massive game away from home in the final round against North Queensland.

They’re still facing that massive game, but they’ll go to Townsville feeling a whole lot better about themselves and knowing that even if they lose they can’t finish worse than second on the ladder.

That, of course, means that if they win in the first week of the finals they’ll go straight through to week three, and be only one more win away from a place in the grand final. Under those circumstances, with the pressure off a bit, I expect Manly to settle back into a groove and play much more like we know they can against North Queensland.

It’s going to be very difficult for them to win, particularly since the currently seventh-placed Cowboys could be playing for a top-four spot, but Manly should be very competitive.

North Queensland are heavily favoured to beat Cronulla in the final game of Round 25 in Townsville tonight and move to fifth.

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If Manly win, it will be a great result for them. If they don’t win, but they take a high-quality game right down to the wire, they can still enter the finals with confidence.

But if the Panthers had capitalised on their 12-point lead from midway through the second half and won comfortably, who knows what sort of state the Sea Eagles would have been in heading for Round 26.

I watched Manly’s post-match media conference on video and I liked the way both coach Geoff Toovey and captain Jamie Lyon were talking.

They know the Sea Eagles have got to get better and play the sort of football they did in the last 20 minutes for closer to 80, but they were relaxed and happy.

Manly escaped from jail against Penrith, and the Panthers are probably still wondering today how that one got away, but that’s the way it goes sometimes. What looks like a sure win to one team can be stolen when the other team suddenly decides they want it more. The Sea Eagles were that team yesterday. Now they have to show they can go on with the job.

Jamie Buhrer’s season-ending knee injury, sustained against the Panthers, is a significant blow. Manly would love to have both him and Glenn Stewart in their 17 for the finals, but have neither.

At least they got Dunamis Lui back from injury yesterday. Lui will add a bit of mongrel and you can’t have enough of that going into the big, end-of-season games.

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Injuries are always important, but this competition is so tight it feels like they are going to have more influence than ever on the finals series. If you’re following a very good team and the vast majority of their players are healthy, they might be in the box seat.

It is going to be a fascinating final round, with six of the eight games set to have a bearing on the top eight.

Look at currently fifth-placed Melbourne, for instance. They play eighth-placed Brisbane at AAMI Park on Friday. A win could see them finish in the top four, but a loss could see them miss the eight altogether.

Sixth-placed Canterbury and the Broncos are obviously both on shaky ground as well.

The Bulldogs, who play Gold Coast at CBUS Super Stadium on Sunday, could actually still finish in the top four, but would need big help not only from other results, but also in the points for-and-against department.

The Cowboys, with their hugely positive differential, will be safe in the top eight if they win tonight.

The ninth-placed Warriors and tenth-placed Parramatta are both still alive in the battle for places in the finals.

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Had the Panthers hung on to win yesterday, Souths and Sydney Roosters would have been playing off for the minor premiership at Allianz Stadium on Thursday.

Whichever teams wins that clash can still take the minor premiership – if the Sea Eagles lose – but only one team out of the Rabbitohs and Roosters can finish in the top two.

A Penrith win yesterday would have meant it was possible for Souths and the Roosters to both finish in the top two regardless of which team won their clash.

It would have also guaranteed the Panthers a place in the top four, but instead they still have Melbourne – and probably the Cowboys as well, after tonight – breathing down their necks.

If the Storm beat the Broncos, Penrith will have to beat the Warriors at Sportingbet Stadium on Sunday to finish in the top four.

The game that keeps giving has outdone itself this time.

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