After 23 regular season rounds and 792 quarters of football, we have now come to the stage where eight teams will fight it off for the right to be crowned premiers for season 2014.
This year’s top four teams remain unchanged from 2013, with the Sydney Swans rising from fourth last year behind Hawthorn, the Geelong Cats and Fremantle (who remain in that order, albeit from 1-2-3 last year to 2-3-4 this year) to take out their first minor premiership in 18 years.
Not surprisingly, many AFL experts have predicted that this year’s premiers will be either one of those four teams, for whom their regular season efforts will count for nothing if they cannot display their true credentials in September.
The two qualifying finals which will involve these four teams will be rematches of last year’s two preliminary finals, which saw Hawthorn and Fremantle defeat their respective opposition to move through to the grand final, later won by the Hawks by 15 points.
The bottom half of the top eight consists of Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Essendon and Richmond. The Power and Tigers both qualify for the second year in a row, while North Melbourne and Essendon return after absences of one and two years respectively.
Let’s now take a look at each of the four matches in detail.
First qualifying final: Sydney Swans versus Fremantle
Saturday, September 6
2:45pm
ANZ Stadium, Sydney
Round 5: Sydney Swans 13.14 (92) defeated Fremantle 11.9 (75) at the SCG.
Last meeting in a final: Fremantle 14.15 (99) defeated Sydney Swans 11.8 (74), second preliminary final, 2013, at Patersons Stadium.
It is almost twelve months since the Sydney Swans’ premiership defence was dismantled by the Fremantle Dockers in one of the most brutal second quarters produced in finals football.
Fast forward to now and the Swans, who will field a much stronger side than the one that lost by 25 points at Patersons Stadium 50 weeks ago, will be out for some sort of revenge when they welcome the Dockers to ANZ Stadium for only the second time.
It was back in 2006 the Purple Haze most recently played at the Olympic stadium, when the side finished in the top four for the first time in club history after entering the competition in 1995.
From the side that lost by 35 points on that Friday night in September eight years ago, only five players (Matthew Pavlich, Aaron Sandilands, Ryan Crowley, Michael Johnson and Luke McPharlin) remain, although the latter two won’t play this Saturday.
For almost the rest of the current squad, it will be their first ever match at ANZ Stadium, but it is a ground which Ross Lyon is familiar with, having been the coach of St Kilda when the Saints played on the ground three times between 2007 and 2011, for one win and two losses.
Meanwhile, for the Sydney Swans, the hard work during the regular season, in which they overcame a 1-3 start to the season to top the ladder for the first time since 1996, has been done, and now the club must justify their minor premiership with a strong showing during the finals series.
John Longmire’s men are coming off a meaningless three-point loss to Richmond last week but should be boosted by the return of ex-Hawks Lance Franklin, Josh Kennedy and Ben McGlynn, as well as ruckman Mike Pyke and Craig Bird.
The Swans will start clear favourites against a side who will be missing key defenders Luke McPharlin and Michael Johnson, who will not play again after opting to undergo back surgery.
Without them, the Dockers will have trouble trying to shut down the Swans’ twin-towers of Buddy Franklin and Kurt Tippett.
A win for either side will go a long way towards securing not only a home preliminary final, but also, premiership favouritism. Who wins in this one?
Prediction: Sydney Swans by 25 points.
Second qualifying final: Geelong versus Hawthorn
Friday, September 5
7:50pm
Melbourne Cricket Ground
Round 5: Geelong Cats 15.16 (106) defeated Hawthorn 12.15 (87) at the MCG.
Round 22: Hawthorn 14.10 (94) defeated Geelong Cats 11.5 (71) at the MCG.
Last meeting in a final: Hawthorn 14.18 (102) defeated Geelong Cats 15.7 (97), first preliminary final, 2013 at the MCG.
Forget last week, Hawthorn’s 23-point win over the Geelong Cats in Round 22 may have given the premiers somewhat of a psychological edge as the two teams prepare to meet for the second time in three weeks this Friday night.
As we all know too well the Geelong Cats have dominated Hawthorn since the 2008 grand final, and this could have continued had the Cats not taken the foot off the pedal after they led by 33 points in the third term.
It was also that loss which would ultimately cost the Cats not only a top two finish, but also, the minor premiership, and the Sydney Swans’ final-round loss to Richmond would have had a meaning after all.
Anyway, Chris Scott’s men have defied the odds to once again finish in the top four after being written off following mid-season interstate losses to the Sydney Swans and Gold Coast Suns by a combined total of 150 points.
And despite their domination of Hawthorn in the last six years, the Cats will start this Friday night’s match as underdogs against what is expected to be a full-strength Hawthorn line-up whose captain Luke Hodge should return after he missed their 65-point thumping of Collingwood last Friday night.
The Hawks just failed to clinch a third consecutive minor premiership but have finished in the top two for the third year running, in addition to finishing third in 2011.
And you’d think that after their victory over the Cats in Round 22, they’d be favourites again. But you just never know what to expect from either team. Can the Cats spring another surprise or will the Hawks show just who is the elephant in the room?
Prediction: Hawthorn by 10 points.
First elimination final: Port Adelaide versus Richmond
Sunday, September 7
2:50pm ACST
Adelaide Oval
Round 17: Richmond 19.12 (126) defeated Port Adelaide 16.10 (106) at Etihad Stadium.
Last meeting in a final: Never
The fairytale run of the Richmond Tigers continues this Sunday when they roll into the Adelaide Oval hoping to gatecrash the venue’s first ever final, which will feature Port Adelaide wearing their famous heritage prison-bar guernsey.
The Power will be left to rue a mid-season form slump, bookended by losses to the Sydney Swans in Round 13 and 20, that has cost them the double chance.
Having led by as many as two games midway through the season, Ken Hinkley’s men lost their way, including losing to Richmond by 20 points at Etihad Stadium in Round 17, before getting it together in the final three rounds, narrowly losing out to Fremantle by eight points in Perth last week.
Sunday’s elimination final serves as a chance for the Power to gain some revenge for the loss to the Tigers in July, but Damien Hardwick’s men will enter on the back of nine consecutive victories.
They appeared dead for all money after slumping to 16th after Round 14, but last week’s thrilling three-point win over Sydney has landed them a finals berth for the second consecutive year, and they will not be intent on stopping anytime soon.
In fact, the Tigers will roll into the Oval not only having defeated Port this year, but also having won on their last trip to the City of Churches, when they defeated the Adelaide Crows in Round 21.
The question will be whether they can continue their winning run into the semi-finals, or whether that will finally take its toll on the club. Can they offer any more or is that the end of the line?
Prediction: Port Adelaide by 20 points.
Second elimination final: North Melbourne versus Essendon
Saturday, September 6
7:15pm
Melbourne Cricket Ground
Round 1: Essendon 15.9 (99) defeated North Melbourne 9.6 (60) at Etihad Stadium.
Last meeting in a final: Essendon 31.12 (198) defeated North Melbourne 11.7 (73), first qualifying final, 2000 at the MCG.
Fourteen years since their last finals clash, the Bombers and Kangaroos will be playing in their first finals series since 2011 and 2012, respectively.
Brad Scott’s men will have learnt a lot of lessons from last year’s series of close misses, with that being the main motivation behind their sixth-place finish this season.
They have defeated four of the five teams above them on the ladder in their only meetings against them this season, while they also lost to Geelong twice during the home-and-away rounds.
For Brent Harvey to play again this year, they must avenge not only their 39-point loss to the Bombers in Round 1, but also the aforementioned qualifying final loss from 2000, of which no one apart from Harvey remains from that team.
Harvey is serving the last of a three-match suspension incurred from Round 21 for rough conduct against the Western Bulldogs’ Liam Picken. A win for the Roos will set up a semi-final against either the Hawks or Cats in week two of the finals, and ensure Boomer returns to the field for at least one last time in 2014.
As for the Bombers, their return to the finals this year comes twelve months after they were expelled from last year’s series following the supplements scandal, but it did not deter their consistent results on the field this year.
They did enough to finish seventh this year under the coaching of Mark Thompson, despite also losing to bottom-two teams Melbourne and St Kilda and failing to beat any of the top four teams during the regular season.
The winner of this match will earn a shot at either Hawthorn or the Geelong Cats, most likely next Friday night (September 12), while for the loser, it’s season over. So, who will win the all-Victorian sudden-death final and thus go on to face the loser of the all-Victorian qualifying final?
Prediction: Essendon by 22 points.
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