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The 2014 AFL finals are upon us and the opening round provides some highly intriguing match-ups. Throughout the series The Roar‘s AFL expert tipping panel will provide you with their tips and predictions for the weekend’s games.
VIEW THE ROAR’S COMPLETE GUIDE TO WEEK 1
Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats
Friday September 5, 7:50pm (AEST), MCG
Odds: Hawthorn $1.50, Geelong $2.65*
Glenn Mitchell says: “Hawthorn to beat Geelong by 10 points. You can never underestimate the Cats in September but I see Hawthorn as having too many avenues to goal in Roughead, Gunston and Breust. The return of Hodge to marshall the defence is a major plus. The biggest challenge will be keeping an in-form Hawkins quiet. Lake has a good record on the big forward and his duel with him will be pivotal.”
Cam Rose says: “Hawthorn by 33 points – there will be swings in momentum as usual, but the superior Hawks will prove too strong for the inconsistent Cats.”
Sean Lee says: “Hawthorn to defeat Geelong – Hawthorn’s forward line will be too potent.”
Geoff Lemon says: “Geelong to defeat Hawthorn by 16. It has to happen. Geelong won the first time this year, Hawthorn got one back, so there has to be another swing. The Hawks are scary good, but my heart says the Cats will be carried by a surge from Motlop, Christensen, Murdoch and Caddy. Steve Johnson will come back strongly, Selwood will boss the centre, Lonergan and Taylor will get adequate support down back, and Tom Hawkins in top form will create just enough headaches. At least, that’s what I’m telling myself as I try to sleep at night.”
Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers
Saturday September 6, 2:45pm (AEST), ANZ Stadium
Odds: Sydney $1.45, Fremantle $2.80*
Glenn Mitchell says: “Sydney to beat Fremantle by 16 points. If history is any indicator this match will be all about contested ball and high tackle counts. The loss of 2013 All-Australian Michael Johnson for the rest of the season with back surgery and the ongoing absence of 2012 All-Australian full-back Luke McPharlin will severely stretch the Dockers’ defence given the height and potency of Franklin, Tippett, Goodes and potentially Reid. The Dockers will need Ballantyne and Walters to kick at least five between them. The forecast is for showers. If they are not significant I cannot see Freo being able to match it on the scoreboard.”
Cam Rose says: “Fremantle by 1 point – the Swans are the side to beat, but I’ve got a funny feeling Ross Lyon will get the job done against all odds.”
Sean Lee says: “Sydney to defeat Fremantle – Sydney are still the team to beat.”
Geoff Lemon says: “Sydney to defeat Fremantle by 4. This was the hardest tip, but I needed a conservative option given my others. There’ll be plenty backing the Grapes this weekend, and I’m almost amongst them – but Sydney’s forward power gets them the nod. I know it’s been said, but Buddy, Tippet, Goodes and Reid form an arsenal too imposing to ignore. Pavlich is a howitzer that occasionally jams, while Mayne and Taberner can’t quite match the calibre. I’m tipping Ballantyne to have a blinder, and this game to be a brilliant head-to-head midfield display, with the Holy Martyr Fyfe, Mundy and Barlow up against Kennedy, Parker and Hannebery.”
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Essendon Bombers
Saturday September 6, 7:15pm (AEST), MCG
Odds: North Melbourne $1.70, Essendon $2.20*
Glenn Mitchell says: “Essendon to beat North Melbourne by 17 points. A fascinating match-up with Essendon still driven by its removal from the finals last year and North desperate to prove it is not just there to make up the numbers but a genuine finals side. At their best, the Kangaroos have shown they can beat the best this season. The loss of Harvey to suspension is a massive blow for the Roos. I think Ryder will have the better of Goldstein in the ruck and that should result in the likes of Watson, Stanton and Hocking getting enough of the ball to get the Bombers over the line.”
Cam Rose says: “Essendon by 10 points – not much between these sides, but the Dons best is probably better than North’s. No Harvey for the Roos is crucial.”
Sean Lee says: “Essendon to defeat North Melbourne – Both inconsistent, but Essendon’s best is better than North’s best (if both teams bring their best!).”
Geoff Lemon says: “North Melbourne to defeat Essendon by 28. There is no conservative option here – North are the better team but their erratic form makes picking them dicey. I’ve liked the Bombers play at times this year, but they’ve been pretty flat in the closing stages, culminating in that inaccurate draw against Carlton. The Roos, meanwhile, have finally put a couple of good games together. No Boomer could hurt them, but I think they’ll click into gear.”
Port Adelaide Power vs Richmond Tigers
Sunday September 7, 3:20pm (AEST), Adelaide Oval
Odds: Port Adelaide $1.42, Richmond $2.95*
Glenn Mitchell says: “Richmond to beat by Port Adelaide by 4 points. Port may be at home and have 50,000 fans shouting for them, but they will be worried. The Tigers are the form team of the competition and coming off a win over the minor premiers Sydney last weekend. Richmond has played attacking, free flowing football over the past two months. If Riewoldt can stand-up and make the most of the supply he will receive from Cotchin, Martin, Deledio and co. I can see the Tigers living to fight another day. Confidence is a wonderful thing and at times of late Port has lacked it.”
Cam Rose says: “Richmond by 95 points – the Tiger charge is not done yet!”
Sean Lee says: “Richmond to defeat Port Adelaide – the Tiger’s will not want to repeat their first week exit of last season.”
Geoff Lemon says: “Richmond to defeat Port Adelaide by 22. I’ve said no to the Tigers all season: I have to say yes this once. They’ve worked that hard and come that far, surely there’s room for one more miracle. They’re probably the form side of the comp, they’re brimming with enthusiasm, and it would be an anticlimax to pack them off this week. But Port are back into some pretty good touch, even in a close loss at the Winery last week, and they’ve got their own Wines plus plenty of bottle. Should be a corker.”
*Odds correct as of 11:00am Thursday, September 4.
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