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Big Dawg's Dodgy NFL Tips: Week 1

Roar Guru
3rd September, 2014
2

Well folks, it’s the time of year again when the Budweiser flows like wine, the dulcet tones of Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth return to our eardrums and the world gets to see everything that is great about America packaged into one single sport.

That’s right, it’s NFL season!

Once a week I’ll assume my NFL tipster alter ego “Big Dawg” and provide you with my dodgy assessment of each game – unless the game’s not worth mentioning – in order for you to decide where to punt your shekels.

Home teams listed first. Let’s begin.

Seattle ($1.40) versus Green Bay ($3.05)
The reigning champs take on Aaron Rodgers and compnay at CenturyLink Field and its infamous “12th Man”. There’s little to suggest the Seahawks shouldn’t be as good as they were last year, although I am slightly concerned that Rusty Wilson is a little too concerned about his off-field brand instead of his on-field performance. Can we at least stop saying he’s too short though?

Marshawn Lynch made some noise in the offseason about not being paid, right around the time he was putting velvet ropes around his Ferrari, but he’ll be there and is always good for a highlight reel moment twice a season. Perhaps this is the game for one of them?

Also, Percy Harvin is back. Harvin is really good when he’s not hurt. As for the Packers, if Rodgers is on the field they’re capable of beating anyone. Julius Peppers is now in the green and yellow but it remains to be seen how effective the old man can be playing in a 3-4 as a stand up ‘backer. Not very, is my guess.

Tip: Seahawks by 10

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Atlanta ($2.35) versus New Orleans ($1.62)
One of the few away teams favoured by the bookies this week, and it’s easy to see why. Atlanta were awful last year, and their roster looks wafer-thin again this season. Defensively I expect them to be as bad as last year and facing Drew Brees and the Saints means this one could get ugly.

The price for the Saints looks like value and I’d imagine that taking the over 52 for total game score will be similarly lucrative.

Tip: Saints by 14

Baltimore ($1.74) versus Cincinnati ($2.15)
First and foremost: Joe Flacco. I don’t like him and because of that I don’t like the Ravens this year. John Harbaugh is a great coach but he won’t have the cattle to compete in an ugly AFC North. Their defense is likely to keep them in games again this season but unless they get some production from their ground game it’s going to be a long season.

As for Cincinnati, they’ll just continue to be a good team who can’t win playoff games. Everyone hates Andy Dalton. I get it, he’s pretty average and he’s a sauce. But the kid wins (regular season) games. Plus throwing balls to AJ Green and having Giovani Bernard in the backfield makes life a lot easier. Despite being outsiders Cincy should be too good here in what shapes up to be a tough division game.

Cincinnati by 3

Chicago ($1.32) versus Buffalo ($3.50)
There is one reason to watch this game: the Bears’ offense. If Jay Cutler doesn’t throw at least four touchdowns against the Bills there’s something wrong with ‘Murica. The only other reason to flick over is to see new Buffalo quarterback Kyle Orton, aka Dave Grohl. I wonder if people ever go up to the real Dave Grohl and think it’s Kyle Orton? Bad game, appropriate analysis.

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Tip: Chicago by 14

Houston ($1.67) versus Washington ($2.26)
An interesting game for three reasons. We get to see what a Houston team without Matt Schaub at quarterback looks like. We get to see what a Houston team with JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney together looks like. We get to see what Washington with DeSean Jackson looks like.

Tough game to call. Houston have been the trendy bounce-back pick this season after a woeful 2013 but it really comes down to whether new quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is serviceable. I’m thinking it might take a little time.

Tip: Washington by 7

Kansas City ($1.49) versus Tennessee ($2.70)
I won’t be watching this game. You won’t be watching this game. Just google Jamaal Charles’ highlight reel after the game.

Tip: Chiefs by 3

Miami ($2.90) versus New England ($1.44)
There’s been some talk that Miami will significantly improve this year after showing some promising signs last season (among all the hazing and locker room bullying). Ryan Tannehill has constantly looked like he’s on the cusp of being something before doing something stupid to ruin a game.

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He’s the anti-Dalton, who never appears to be on the cusp of being good but manages to eke out wins somehow. In any case, Miami are up against a Patriots team who still have Tom Brady at quarterback and Bill Belichick as head coach. That means Miami don’t win.

Tip: Patriots by 7

New York Jets ($1.38) versus Oakland ($3.18)
I looked at this game and threw up a little in my mouth. Do you know who the starting quarterbacks are going to be for this game? Geno Smith and Derek Carr. Watch this game if you’re a masochist and hate football. Or if you hate Derek Carr because Rex Ryan’s defence is going to kill him. It’s all just going to be ugly.

Tip: Jets by 7

Philadelphia ($1.18) versus Jacksonville ($5.15)
Chip Kelly’s offense is fun to watch. I actually think that Jacksonville’s defence is decent but week one against whatever weird schemes the Eagles show them won’t be the time that they prove it. I’m pretty sure everyone is secretly hoping Chad Henne comes down with a stomach bug the day before the match so we can see Blake Bortles throw the pigskin around. Maybe that’s just me though. Philly will be too good, obviously.

Tip: Eagles by 17

St Louis ($1.50) v Minnesota ($2.69)
Apparently even losing your starting quarterback to a season-ending knee injury isn’t enough to push you out of favouritism in a game against the Vikings. I guess when you’re going up against either Christian Ponder or Matt Cassell it doesn’t really matter.

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The Vikes still have Adrian Peterson, but his production has declined in recent years and unfortunately his best days appear to be behind him. On defence, the St Louis front seven looks to be up there with the best in the league, so whoever pulls on the purple at quarterback is likely to spend a fair amount of time on his back in any case.

Tip: Rams by 3

Dallas ($2.85) versus San Francisco ($1.45)
Ah Dallas, ‘Murica’s team, the place where linebackers go to die. The Cowboys are about two injuries away from Jerry Jones suiting up at 52, which doesn’t bode well for the defence. Tony Romo is back to keep them in games until the fourth quarter comes around and he loses.

Dez Bryant is still there being an excellent receiver frustrated by the team around him. San Francisco should be a legitimate Superbowl contender this year. Although the loss of Navarro Bowman is significant, they have enough talent to keep things patched up and ticking over. The boys from the Bay area will just get it done.

Tip: 49’ers by 7

Tampa Bay ($1.87) versus Steve Smith-less Carolina ($1.97)
I’m not even sure that this team counts as Carolina without Steve Smith. There’s an undersized receiver-sized hole in my Carolina loving heart right now and not even Luke Kuelchy can make it right.

This game is likely to be a back and forth battle and the biggest question mark is whether Panthers quarterback Cam Newton even sees the field. After a stellar year in Chicago, Josh McCown moved to the temperate climate of Florida. I thought he retired but it turns out he got paid and is now attempting to be a quarterback without running Chip Kelly’s sweet offense. Good luck Mr McCown. Good luck.

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Tip: Buccaneers by 3

Denver ($1.24) versus Indianapolis ($4.25)
It’s become clear that Peyton Manning is, if not a machine, at least a cyborg who’s probably one Superbowl ring away from being considered the greatest of all time. I’m sure he’ll get zero pleasure from systematically beating his old team at Mile High Stadium, but he’ll do it anyway.

Andrew Luck will do his best to put points on the board, which he will likely be able to do, but no one wins a shoot-out with Peyton Manning, who’ll miss Eric Decker like Rory McIlroy misses Caroline Wozniacki.

Tip: Broncos by 10

Detroit ($1.24) versus New York Giants ($2.92)
Eli Manning is a bum. He is a bum with two rings but he is a bum. He is a loveable joker who does great SNL sketches but he is a bum. He is the only quarterback in the league with a market on whether he’ll throw more picks than TDs this year.

His ability to be erratic and frustrated and then pull the four-year-old-kid-sad-face is probably in my top five favourite things about the NFL and top 10 things about ‘Murica.

Detroit suit up Megatron, Ndamukong Suh and the Australian NFL marketing figurehead Reggie Bush. Plus they’re the Lions so they’re always entertaining in myriad ways. I have no basis for thinking this but I’m going with Eli the bum and the Giants to get it done this week.

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Tip: Giants by 3

Arizona ($1.60) versus San Diego ($2.40)
So it turns out that the men from Ron Burgundy’s homeland were really good on offense last year. Will they be as good again this year? Unlikely, but they’ll still be competitive. Any team with Danny Woodhead is a team worth cheering for.

Arizona are a solid team in the middle of a division that includes the two teams who played in last year’s NFC Championship, so they get no respect and have no chance of making the playoffs. This week I think the San Diego defence will be too porous to stop Larry Fitz and the Cardinals attack out in the desert.

Tip: Cardinals by 7

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