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When Jake Carlisle’s hamstring or debate about which guernsey Port Adelaide should wear garner more column inches than the redeployment of our troops to the Middle East, we know it must be AFL finals time.
After all, what else matters in September?
MORE AFL FINALS:
>>Roar Expert tips and predictions
>>Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers preview
>>Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats preview
>>Port Adelaide Power vs Richmond Tigers preview
>>North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Essendon Bombers preview
Scientists may discover that the world is going to end on Friday, but if Lance Franklin did his hamstring at training, my money would be on him – not humanity’s impending demise – being on the front pages of our daily newspapers.
That is how much we love our finals footy.
Being a bit of a dinosaur, I revel in memories of ovals strewn with streamers and the cut up squares of newspapers and old phone books that we used to take into the ground in bags and throw gleefully up into the air after a goal was scored.
It was all harmless fun and very colourful, but of course you are not allowed to do it now.
Occasionally a streamer would get wrapped around a player’s leg, but no one ever lost an eye and it didn’t stop Kevin Bartlett from kicking seven goals in the 1980 grand final. Nor did it hinder Jezza taking that great grab in 1970.
But enough reminiscing, or we’ll be here all day.
While today’s finals may lack the colour of those days of yore, they lack nothing in the way of skill or excitement – well sometimes they do, but that’s what happens when you have a final eight! Either way, they are still eagerly anticipated.
The AFL has scheduled the weekend so that it kicks off with a bang. Friday night’s clash between Hawthorn and Geelong at the MCG is the big ticket item and the one that most supporters of non-competing teams are waiting for.
Both clubs have had an amazing run over the past seven years with Geelong winning three premierships from four attempts and Hawthorn winning two from three. Over that time the pair has built up a gritty rivalry, but it would be safe to say that Geelong have had the upper hand.
The Hawks have only won two of their last 14 games against the Cats, a record that at one stage included a staggering eleven losses in a row. But the times are changing. Hawthorn’s most recent outing against Geelong saw them kick 10 consecutive goals to turn a 33-point deficit into a 23-point win.
It was a 56-point turnaround that Geelong couldn’t stem, and the danger remains that it could happen again. The Cat defenders may be able to hold the Hawk forwards for some of the time, but they are unable to cover them completely for an entire game.
Just take a look at the leading goal kicker table. Three of the top ten belong to the Hawks and each of them has kicked more than 50 goals. If Jarryd Roughead (62 goals) is not on song, then Luke Breust (53 goals) and Jack Gunston (51 goals) step up to fill the void. Throw in a resting ruckman like David Hale who kicked three goals against the Cats last time around, and you’re in more trouble than the young fella in Holland who had to use his finger to plug a leaking dyke!
Geelong on the other hand is overly reliant on Tom Hawkins who, like Roughead, has kicked 62 goals for the season. Their next best though is Jimmy Bartel on 24.
This discrepancy is further borne out when we look at the league ladder. While the teams may have finished second and third respectively, Hawthorn’s ‘points for’ total is 425 more than Geelong’s. That equates to just over three goals more per game.
And that is important.
The coaches and the media may prattle on about pressure acts or hard ball gets or intercept marks, but the most important stat in footy is still the score at the end of the game. It doesn’t matter how many of the other categories you might have dominated, if you haven’t scored more than the opposition, then you are going home disappointed.
For that reason I’m tipping the Hawks. They have a forward line which is more capable of kicking a winning score than Geelong has a defence capable of containing it.
Hawthorn by 25 points.
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