Roar Guru
It’s Thursday morning on the Highveld in South Africa and it’s not exactly spring yet. Sure there are blue skies about, but the sun is yet to warm the crust of the Highveld to an extent where the winter’s hold is broken.
I am sitting in my office (at home) and I am struggling to focus on being productive in any sense of the word. You may call it procrastination if you will, but this is all about preparation for the upcoming Test.
I am worried, nervous, excited and over analysing the potential outcome of this coming weekend, and this ritual has been the same for as long as I remember. No appointments are scheduled, and I’m delegating every possible task to the wife so I can focus on the subject at hand.
It is hard not to be critical of the Springboks after what they did last year. They won 10 out of 12 matches, scored 47 tries and conceded only 19 (nine were against the All Blacks). The results this year – five from five and 21 tries – would suggest it has been smooth sailing and there should be little to worry about.
But then, results don’t tell you the full story. Similar to statistics, such as metres gained, kicks out of hand and missed tackles, it is all supposed to be seen within context.
A desperate lunge to tackle a flying Israel Folau may be deemed a missed tackle attempt, but in context the prop may never get there anyway. The All Blacks in recent times have kicked more than the Springboks, difference is they kick with purpose, we kick because we have nothing better to do.
Anyway, before I completely go off the rails, this coming weekend is highly important to both Australia and South Africa.
Ewen McKenzie has tweaked his back line and has come to the conclusion that Kurtley Beale, as talented as he may be, is not a Test number 10. Could he not have waited one more week before coming to that conclusion?
Fortunately he has left the Springboks a little leeway by not changing his forward pack. It’s an opening for Heyneke Meyer and his charges, if of course they choose to utilise it.
Looking back at the Tests against Wales and Argentina this might not be a given. Yet this is where the game can be lost for South Africa.
Comparing the back lines of the two respective teams will suggest that Australia has the more dangerous and exciting line-up. But again it is not that simple.
The Australian back line is more positive, and more willing to take risks. They will offload to a player in space and they will run from almost anywhere on the field, whereas the Springbok back line will play the percentages. Offloads are like hen’s teeth, it doesn’t suggest they won’t use it, but they use it very sparingly indeed.
In my younger years I was a very capable chess player, and my tactics were very simple (not unlike Meyer’s). I would allow the opponent to attack and my defences were set up to mow his pieces down, one by one until I had the upper hand. It worked a treat, I won 95 per cent of my matches in this manner.
But then rugby is not chess, you don’t have one piece moving at a time, and chess does not have three pieces moving in an orchestrated move all at one time.
South Africa does have a player who will put doubt in the Wallabies’ defence, but Willie le Roux can only get involved in attack if the rest of his back line is in tune with him.
The truth is that on the weekend, Australia doesn’t have more playmakers than the South Africans. They have Foley, and we have Willie le Roux, but it is about intent to play positive rugby. Something we haven’t really done yet this year.
Meyer made a comment that the Springboks tried to attack the Pumas too early while on the back foot and they never really earned the right to go wide. I challenge you Sir, all I have seen was a lacklustre team kicking away most of their prized possession.
You may want to pass that judgement to New Zealand in Sydney as well, and perhaps in general as they have shown a tendency to wait for opposition mistakes to counter from.
The difference is New Zealand are masters of the breakdown and masters at exploiting counter attacking opportunities, something South Africa have been severely lacking in this past year.
It’s true though that Australia has not been all that efficient at the breakdown this year and have allowed opportunities for turn overs at the contact area, so you may levy this criticism at both teams.
So the question is which team will pitch up at the breakdown this weekend?
The South African attack is reliant on their forwards to build momentum, create front-foot ball and quick ball. It hasn’t happened this year, for two reasons. The pack has not been performing, but then Ruan Pienaar isn’t known for his quick service at the base of the ruck either.
I have come to the conclusion that with the style in which Meyer approaches the game, it really doesn’t matter who he puts at flyhalf. The reasoning is perhaps a little blunt and simple, but he doesn’t expect his flyhalf to attack the line.
He is merely there to kick his team out of trouble (sometimes into trouble with poor execution), into better field position or pass the ball to the next available player.
It is therefore up to Jean de Villiers and Jan Serfontein to break the line with pure physical power as there will be no additional space created for them unless Willie le Roux has possession and a little bit of space.
The fact is South Africa plays hard, fast, direct running rugby, with the odd offload and occasional bit of space created. And they have been doing it for years. It still works, and low and behold it did last year. But their forwards performed in those occasions.
So what needs to happen?
The South African pack must perform this weekend, they must dominate in order for the Springboks to walk away victorious.
For Australia to win, all they need is parity, or close to it. Win enough line outs at the opportune times, break even at the breakdown and survive the scrums.
The back lines may play a different way, but where South Africa need forward dominance for their power and pace game to work, the Australians only need close to parity as their backs are able to work with less to create more.
The simple truth is, you need to be on the front foot to punch holes, but you can be on the back foot to step and offload.