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2014 AFL Finals: History and form suggest a Sydney versus Hawks final

7th September, 2014
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7th September, 2014
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Members, supporters and even casual fans of the four clubs playing next weekend would all have justified reason to believe their team can win and advance to a grand final qualifier the following week.

While Geelong was beaten by Hawthorn, there were plenty of positive signs to say they are at the very least capable of getting to Sydney for a preliminary final against the Swans.

The Kangaroos? Wow. Gone for most people’s money, but to come back and win the way they did, they will be bulging with confidence heading into their semifinal with the Cats, and it would not surprise any if they made their way to the Harbour City.

More AFL Finals:
» 2014 AFL Finals – Who won, who lost
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» AFL Finals homepage, full coverage
» Latest video highlights

And on the other side of the draw? Fremantle, gallant against the Swans, will be a different beast on their home patch in Perth next weekend. They have won nine in a row at Patersons, 11 of 12 there this season, and have won a staggering 28 of their past 30 matches on their home ground.

But they face an in-form Port Adelaide. They were awesome against Richmond, and did run the Dockers to eight points in the final game of the home-and-away season.

Any of the four can win their semifinals next weekend, and from there, well, what’s to stop them winning again the week after and going on to play for the flag on the final Saturday in September?

Well, history says it’s highly unlikely. In fact listen to the loud voice of history, and you’ll clearly hear that Sydney and Hawthorn are destined for a dance at the MCG on September 27, playing each other in the grand final for the second time in three seasons.

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While the top eight format began back in 1994, the current playoff format where the top four play each other and bottom four in the eight play each other in Week 1 of the finals, only came into play in 2000.

In that first season, Essendon and Melbourne won the qualifying finals. They had the week off, and then beat Carlton and the Kangaroos respectively to qualify for the grand final, which the Bombers would win.

It was an identical story in 2001 with Essendon and Brisbane, and again 2002 when Brisbane and Collingwood won in Week 1, got a week’s break and then both won their preliminary finals.

In 2003, there was slight glitch. Collingwood and Sydney won in Week 1, and while the Pies would win their prelim, the Swans lost to eventual winners Brisbane in the penultimate week, the Lions having lost in Week 1 to the Pies.

In 2004 Port and Brisbane both won in Week 1, then both won their preliminary finals. Sydney and the West Coast not only met in the 2005 and 2006 grand finals, but they faced each other in Week 1 of the finals in both seasons.

As such, in 2005 West Coast won, as did St Kilda, in Week 1, before Sydney beat the Saints in the preliminary final to set up a grand final with the Eagles. The following year, Sydney beat the Eagles in the qualifying final, Adelaide won the other qualifier, but the Eagles then beat the Crows before going on to beat the Swans in the decider.

Ever since then – in the following seven seasons – the two teams which have won in Week 1 in the qualifying finals, have enjoyed a week off, and then won their respective preliminary finals to reach the last Saturday in September.

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But first this weekend Fremantle will be happy to be back home despite meeting a rampant Port side which has suddenly rediscovered their form late in the season. Freo, with their fine home record, have also not lost at home to Port since 2008.

If they do get past Port and play Hawthorn, well, they have lost their past 10 games on the road against Hawthorn, and haven’t beaten the Hawks in Melbourne since 2001.

If Port can get past Freo though, they do have a win over Hawthorn from this season, but it was at home. They had lost their previous five to the Hawks, and not beaten them in Melbourne since 2009.

Geelong, one of the powerhouses of the past decade, have had it over North (and many other teams) for a while and have won 10 of the past 12 clashes between the clubs dating back to 2007, but some might say the Roos are going better than the Cats right now, however the Cats have got that big time experience.

If Geelong get past North, their record against Sydney looks good, with 12 wins from 15 starts dating back to 2006. But – and it’s a huge but – they were humbled in Sydney by the Swans this season, losing by 110 points in Round 11. They will get picked apart again.

Should North make it to Sydney for the prelim then they can take confidence from beating the Swans in Round 4 when the red and whites were all over the place. But apart from that, you need to go back to 2004 to find a North win in Sydney, and I can’t see another coming in 2014.

But I don’t think history will be why the Swans and Hawks will head to the grand final. I think they have, for some time, been the best two teams in the competition. They were clearly the best on the weekend in their matches, and in all honesty they deserve to play for the premiership in three weeks’ time.

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