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Don't worry about overseas raiders, the big three are ours in 2014

Roar Guru
8th September, 2014
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Fawkner won the 2013 Caulfield Cup. Will he salute in the Cox Plate in 2014? (Image: AAP)
Roar Guru
8th September, 2014
22

For the past decade, the big three races Australia has to offer, the Caulfield Cup (2400m), the Cox Plate (2040m) and the Melbourne Cup (3200m), have created great interest from an international perspective given the great prestige and prize money on offer.

And the international raiders have dominated in recent years thanks to the likes of Americain, Dunaden and Red Cadeaux.

But that will all change in 2014.

When looking at the early markets for the big three, the top of the betting is dominated by either Australian or New Zealand trained runners. And recent history suggests that Australasian runners have dominated the major races.

Take a look at the Caulfield Cup to start with. Fawkner, once regarded as a sprinter, charged home from well back to sweep past some of the best stayers Australia had to offer, along with the lone international runner Dandino.

Then seven days later came the Cox Plate, where a three-year-old maiden, Shamus Award, defeated a hot field, including two overseas runners, Side Glance and Mull Of Killough.

But the main race internationals have their eyes on is the Melbourne Cup. In 2013, there were nine overseas trained runners and while they filled placings second to fifth, they were no match for Fiorente. He was was regarded as a listed horse when trained in the Northern Hemisphere, and he held the likes of Red Cadeaux and Mount Athos, both of which had failed in the big race previously.

Looking ahead to this year the focus will be on the international runners again, more so due to the fact that the Japanese are back, and the last time they came for the Spring they donkey-licked their rivals in the 2006 Melbourne Cup thanks to the Delta Blues and Pop Rock.

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The Caulfield Cup won’t have a strong international flavour in 2014 numbers wise, but the two Japanese contenders, Admire Rakti and Bande, are almost certain starters for the time honoured 2400m handicap. However, they are only on the sixth line of betting behind the likes of The Offer, La Amistad and Rising Romance, and their form back in Japan is very suspect. But given they are from Japan, they have to be respected at this stage.

The hype surrounding the Cox Plate will be immense. Master Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien will send some of his up-and-coming gallopers, headed by Adelaide, who is half owned now by Australian interests, and Magician. They are both in the top half of betting, but their recent form has to be questioned, in particular Magician, who was beaten 13 lengths two starts back before running second in a very weak Group l race in America.

As for Adelaide, he is an up-and-comer who is lightly raced and did win a weak Group l event in the States against moderate opposition. For an inexperienced galloper to travel halfway around the world onto one of the trickiest tracks would have taken a massive effort from all concerned.

The other key international heading towards the WFA championship of the world is the Hong Kong veteran Dan Excel. He earned himself a trip Down Under with a dominant Singapore International Cup triumph, although what he defeated was very questionable outside the runner-up and stablemate, Military Attack. He has proven he can handle travelling, but to win the Cox Plate at his first start at the track, even for a classy galloper like him, would be quite remarkable.

Now the race they all want to win – the Melbourne Cup. The international raid, according to the early market, will be led by the Japanese runners, Admire Rakti and Bande, along with Cavalryman, Dandino and Pale Mimosa. The Japanese pair are unknown, and the following two have failed before in the race that stops the nation. No international has failed in the cup, then come back to win in a following year.

In fact, in recent history, only Empire Rose has achieved this feat. The other horse, Pale Mimosa, is a progressive mare for Dermot Weld, but will unlikely have a lead up run before the great race, and no international has won the cup without a lead-up run on Aussie soil since Vintage Crop in 1993. Mares, with the exception of Makybe Diva, also have a bad record in the race.

Other internationals vying for cup glory could be the Queen’s horse, Estimate, the 2013 Ascot Gold Cup winner, but her recent form is so-so at best, and doesn’t have the turn of foot to win. The other international being talked up is Protectionist, but his last start resulted in an average win against three rivals in the Kergorlay, along with the fact he hasn’t raced outside Germany and is yet to race in a field with no more than 10 runners.

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Cheer now Australia, and possibly New Zealand. The two cups and the plate will be staying here for another 12 months.

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