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The opening week of the AFL finals didn’t disappoint, with two quality sides pulling away, a thrilling come-from-behind victory and a statement win.
The results leave us with six premiership hopefuls, each with an interesting claim to our attention.
Even the side least-favoured, North Melbourne, have a surprising 4-2 record against the clubs still alive at this point. Of those, only Geelong have beaten the Roos in 2014.
More AFL Finals:
» 2014 AFL Finals – Who won, who lost
» What we learned from the first week of the AFL Finals
» 2014 AFL Draw
» AFL Finals homepage, full coverage
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It makes for an interesting contrast with the sides that finished above North.
Hawthorn, Geelong, Fremantle and Port Adelaide each have losing records against opposition from the final six.
Think about that. The Hawks and Cats have each lost five games against the teams they’re still fighting with. The Dockers have lost six. Port have only won three. The cases for these teams don’t stack up particularly well based on this information.
And North can’t exactly hang their hat on coming up better, either.
Their record has been helped by not having to play the top sides as often as the others. On top of that, luck – such as meeting Sydney in the opening month of the season and not later – has contributed too.
Referring to these records is important because how you perform – or don’t perform – against the best can be a good indicator of what to expect in September.
It takes away the ‘gimme’ wins against lowly opposition and gives an insight into what each team was like when the spotlight was on.
Maybe looking at wins and losses, even if they’re wins and losses in ‘big’ games, is too basic. Maybe there are more important factors to look at.
But then again, maybe it’s foolish to overlook the fact you can’t build a convincing argument for any of the above five clubs winning the flag based on how they’ve performed in big matches across the season.
And maybe it’s foolish to overlook that there’s one side separate to them whose record does stack up.
Yep, that would be the Swans. When the top teams have come along, Sydney have stood up, having won six times and lost only twice.
They’ve beaten Hawthorn. They’ve beaten Fremantle twice. They’ve beaten Port Adelaide twice. They’ve beaten Geelong – by 110 points.
One suspects had they met North at any point after that disastrous opening month, they would’ve beaten them too.
This is the foundation for a good September. On the weekend against Fremantle, by leading for most of the match and gradually wearing down the Dockers’ defence, they showed their run can continue into finals.
This just demonstrates that based on results to date, the Swans have a better case than anyone.
But let’s move on and put past performance to one side for a bit. You might not completely buy that particular argument. You might want to see more.
Instead, let’s look forward.
Now, ask yourself a simple question: which of the remaining sides has the best path to the flag?
Obviously, both preliminary finalists would be happy to have the week off right now and to hold home ground advantage next weekend. Of those two sides, whose shoes would you rather be in?
Would you rather be the Hawks, who must play either Fremantle or Port Adelaide?
That preliminary final is looming as a tough game. You’re either facing the second or third best defence in the comp. Both sides managed to beat the Hawks the last time they met, too.
Or, would you rather be the Swans, who must play either Geelong or North Melbourne?
That’s either the side who lost to the Swans by 110 points and have struggled to match Hawthorn twice this past month, or North, who’ve shown enough vulnerabilities over the course of the season to suggest they won’t be a big player late in September and would in all likelihood be coming of a second gruelling win were they to make it.
Yeah, I’m going to go with Sydney on this.
Throw in the minor point that if the Swans win next weekend they have an extra day off, and may very well be coming off the ‘lighter’ prelim physically, it’s clear their path to glory is the smoothest of the sides that are left.
So, just to recap, if you look backwards it’s the Swans with the most going for them.
If you look forwards it’s the Swans with the most going for them.
Drilling down, it’s not hard to see why. The forward quartet of Lance Franklin, Kurt Tippett, Sam Reid and Adam Goodes is firing. They’ve got the top defence in the competition, and the good news is Nick Malceski seems to have avoided serious injury.
Then in the midfield, the depth of star talent is crazy to think about. There’s no shortage of match-winners there.
Right now, the club-most-likely is quite clearly Sydney. That doesn’t mean the flag is theirs, but it does mean their current slight favouritism may be selling them short.
As far as the premiership is concerned, the Swans are the side in the box seat.