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The regular season is over, and now we are down to just eight teams who will fight it out over the next month to decide who claims the NRL premiership for season 2014.
The Roosters are once again the minor premiers, claiming top spot for the first time this year after a strong second half of the season which has seen them win their last six games in succession.
The Sea Eagles let the minor premiership slip through their fingers when they lost to the Cowboys, meaning they have had to settle for second. They will face the Rabbitohs, who finished third, in the opener to this year’s finals series.
Despite all the injuries, the Penrith Panthers have managed to finish fourth. The Cowboys, Storm, Bulldogs and Broncos round out the eight.
More 2014 NRL Finals:
» PRENTICE: Write your own NRL fairytale
» FULL NRL FINALS DRAW
» NRL Finals information, team lists, full coverage
» 2014 NRL Finals: full guide to week one
» Roosters vs Penrith preview
» Manly vs South Sydney preview
» North Queensland vs Brisbane preview
If the past two finals series under the new system is anything to go by, then Sydney league fans in general will have something to be very excited about.
Why? Because in the last two years that the current finals system has been in effect, the premier has come from either second (2012, Storm) or first (last year, Roosters).
Will recent history continue, or will we see a premier emerge from outside the top four for the first time since 1995? Let’s now take a look at each of the four finals matches in detail.
First qualifying final
Sydney Roosters versus Penrith Panthers
Saturday, September 13
5:50pm
Allianz Stadium
Round 19: Roosters won 32-12 at Allianz Stadium.
Last meeting in a final: Roosters won 34-12, second semi-final, 2010 at Allianz Stadium.
After a phenomenal 2013 season which saw the Roosters sweep all before them to win the premiership, many believed they would suffer from the dreaded hangover this year.
And despite starting the season with only two wins from their six openers, the Chooks have warmed to the task as defending premiers and a strong second half of the season has seen them claim their second consecutive minor premiership.
Now that the hard work has been done, now is when their premiership defence really starts to hit another notch.
Their finals opener will see them face the Penrith Panthers, who have been hit hard by injuries this season but did produce their most consistent season in years to finish in the top four for the first time since 2010.
It will revive memories of not only their most recent finals meeting that year, which the Roosters won 34-12, but also those of the 2003 NRL grand final, in which the Panthers rose from wooden spooners in 2001 to premiers just two years later by upsetting the Chooks 18-6.
The teams’ only meeting this year saw the Roosters claim a convincing 32-12 victory, and it’s at this venue where the teams will meet.
Captain Anthony Minichiello will play his 300th NRL game on Saturday night, thus giving the Roosters the incentive to perform well for their club legend, who will retire at the end of the season.
However, the Panthers may have other plans, and it’ll be interesting to see how they plan to spoil the occasion and dent the Chooks’ premiership defence. But the Roosters at home should be very strong.
For the winner: A week off and a preliminary final likely to be played at Allianz Stadium.
For the loser: Will host the winner of the all-Queensland elimination derby, to be played at Allianz.
Prediction: Roosters by 16 points.
Second qualifying final
South Sydney Rabbitohs versus Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
Friday, September 12
7:55pm
Allianz Stadium
Round 2: Sea Eagles won 14-12 at Bluetongue Stadium
Round 22: Rabbitohs won 23-4 at the Sydney Cricket Ground
Last meeting in a final: Sea Eagles won 30-20, second preliminary final, 2013 at ANZ Stadium.
Both the Sea Eagles and Rabbitohs will enter this match on the back of last-start losses, not the ideal preparation for either side ahead of what shapes as a very crucial qualifying final.
The Sea Eagles let the minor premiership slip through their fingers when they fell to the Cowboys last week, while the Bunnies’ second-half comeback against the Roosters just failed, falling short 22-18.
Although Geoff Toovey’s men will be the home side in this qualifying final, many will argue that it’s the Rabbitohs who have the advantage, partly because this match will be played at Allianz Stadium, which used to be the Bunnies’ home ground.
Michael Maguire’s men will have the luxury of regaining Adam Reynolds from suspension while Ben Te’o is also not far from returning. By contrast, the Sea Eagles will have at least Matt Ballin, Jamie Buhrer and Glenn Stewart missing.
Therefore, this is the best chance for the Rabbitohs to not only avenge last year’s preliminary final loss, but also move closer to their first grand final since 1971.
For the winner: Same as the scenario for the winner of the Roosters-Panthers match, except if the Rabbitohs win, the preliminary final will very likely be played at ANZ Stadium.
For the loser: Will host the winner of the 2012 grand final rematch between the Storm and Bulldogs in week two, likely to be played at ANZ Stadium (or Allianz if the semi-final ends up being between the Sea Eagles and Storm).
Prediction: Rabbitohs by 10 points.
First elimination final
North Queensland Cowboys versus Brisbane Broncos
Saturday, September 13
7:55pm
1300SMILES Stadium
Round 2: Broncos won 16-12 at Suncorp Stadium
Round 9: Cowboys won 27-14 at 1300SMILES Stadium
Last meeting in a final: Cowboys won 33-16, first elimination final, 2012, at 1300SMILES Stadium.
For Queensland rugby league fans, this is a finals showdown come true after the final round results conspired in their favour to form another all-Queensland elimination final derby to be played in Townsville.
For the second time in three years, the North Queensland Cowboys and Brisbane Broncos will face off in a sudden death elimination final to determine which of the Queensland sides remain alive in the hunt for the premiership.
It is a decade since the Cowboys first made their mark in September, with the Cowboys earning a home final against their bigger brothers after upsetting the Bulldogs in their finals debut the previous week.
Undaunted by the occasion and a winless record against the Broncos, the Cowboys finally ended that hoodoo with a hard-fought 10-0 victory which notably ended the career of Broncos great Gorden Tallis.
Ten years on, and two years since their last finals meeting which the Cowboys also won to end the Broncos’ 2012 season, the two sides will once again renew hostilities in Townsville with the Broncos seeking to end their winless record against their northern rivals in finals matches.
The Broncos have dominated the intra-state rivalry but the Cowboys have won the two matches that have mattered most – and it’s a record which Johnathan Thurston’s men will hope to keep alive this Saturday night in the tropics.
For the winner: Will face the loser of the Roosters-Panthers tie at Allianz Stadium in week two.
For the loser: Season over, and in the case of the Broncos, the coaching career of Anthony Griffin.
Prediction: Cowboys by 14 points.
Second elimination final
Melbourne Storm versus Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Sunday, September 14
4:10pm
AAMI Park
Round 4: Bulldogs won 40-12 at nib Stadium, Perth
Round 18: Bulldogs won 6-4 at AAMI Park
Last meeting in a final: Storm won 14-4, grand final, 2012, at ANZ Stadium
It’s hard to believe that these two teams were the top two teams of 2012 and were facing off for the NRL premiership in the grand final.
Even more harder to believe is that the Melbourne Storm have finished outside the top four for the first time since 2005 – excluding 2010 when they were sentenced to finish last due to salary cap breaches.
Almost two years since their showdown in the 2012 decider, these two teams will instead fight for survival in a sudden-death elimination final to be played at Melbourne’s AAMI Park on Sunday.
With no AFL finals being played that day, the potential is there for a bumper crowd although the Storm will have to do it the hard way if they are to capture their third NRL premiership.
Under the current finals system currently used by both the NRL (since 2012) and AFL (since 2000), no team from outside the top four in either code has won the premiership, let alone reached the grand final.
That is the task facing the Storm if they are to add another premiership to their post-2010 dynasty.
Craig Bellamy’s men have lost twice to the Bulldogs this year, including at home by 6-4 in Round 18. However, this time they should be favoured to beat the Bulldogs and keep their season alive for at least another week.
Making their task harder is the fact that captain Cameron Smith is in doubt for the match after he appeared to injure his ankle in the victory over the Brisbane Broncos last week.
For the winner: Will face the loser of the Sea Eagles-Rabbitohs tie in Sydney in week two. If the Bulldogs beat the Storm, then that semi-final will very likely be played at ANZ Stadium regardless of their opposition.
For the loser: Season over.
Prediction: Storm by 8 points.
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