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The 2014 NRL finals are upon us and the opening round provides some highly intriguing match-ups.
Throughout the series The Roar‘s NRL expert tipping panel will provide you with their tips and predictions for the weekend’s games.
To read Ryan O’Connell‘s predictions from earlier in the week, or Steve Turner‘s considered options, just go here and here.
MORE NRL FINALS
» FULL NRL FINALS DRAW
» 2014 NRL Finals: full guide to week one
» Roosters vs Penrith preview
» Manly vs South Sydney preview
» North Queensland vs Brisbane preview
» Melbourne vs Canterbury preview
Friday 13 September
Venue: Allianz Stadium – 7:55pm
TV: Channel Nine
Odds: Manly $2.85, South Sydney $1.45
Dane Eldridge says: The Sea Eagles have earned the home final and their faithful will flock across the Spit Bridge and directly in to the teeth of Friday arvo peak hour traffic to provide a meaty boost. Despite this, it will be fuel wasted as the Keary/Reynolds halves combo should have enough points to outlast the guile of the internally-unpopular Daly Cherry-Evans in a tight classic. Souths by 2.
Kris Swales says: Remember how Manly were routinely slaying all comers earlier this year while the joint was a hotbed of gossip and innuendo? And how the team’s performances fell away when the rumours of disquiet and defection died down? And how now, before their biggest game of the year, a defection rumour suddenly resurfaces? Tactical genius. Manly by 7.
Ryan O’Connell says: It’s a must-win game for both teams and it’s a coin toss trying to select the likely victor. However, Manly’s big game experience might just see them home.
Sea Eagles by 1.
Tim Gore says: Mid season I predicted that Manly would be premier based on a formula that has been correct in 2012 and 2013. However, injuries to key forwards Glenn Stewart, Lawrence, Ballin and Buhrer are just too much for the Sea Eagles to cover. While the Rabbitohs have some jitters of their own to overcome, they surely have too much go forward and strike power for the weakened Manly.
Steve Turner says: I think the Rabbitohs will win this comfortably. The Sea Eagles are in a slump, having won two games (narrowly) out of their last five, injuries to Ballin and Buhrer will hurt them.
The Rabbits will welcome Adam Reynolds back from injury and will gain plenty out of the final 20 minutes against the Roosters last week as well as the 23-4 win they had over Manly in round 22. Souths by 10
Venue: Allianz Stadium – 5:50pm
TV: Channel Nine
Odds: Roosters $1.25, Panthers $4.10
Dane Eldridge says: I can feel an upset fermenting here. Even though this cut-price Roosters team is $100k under their cap and down a few felons, they will do the business against a glitzy Panthers outfit stacked with quality from years of splurging cash like a randy Geoffrey Edelsten. Roosters by 8.
Kris Swales says: When he’s not amusing himself by dropping words like “bobble” and “spilled his lollies” in the Nine commentary box, Phil Gould is clearly some sort of genius. This Penrith side he’s assembled with coach Ivan Cleary is a borderline champion team, even without its missing borderline champions. Unfortunately for them the Roosters are a champion team full of champions, and near the peak of their powers. Roosters by 14 off the back of an early onslaught.
Ryan O’Connell says: The Chooks are the deserved premiership favourites, and Penrith will be a mere speed-bump on their path towards back-to-back titles.
Roosters by 14.
Tim Gore says: The Panthers have shown amazing ability this year to stick to their game plan and hold their line. For the most part this side is made up of determined, united and focused meat and potatoes players with occasional flashes of brilliance from the likes of a Moylan, Segayaro, Soward and Mansour. They could well beat the Roosters but the chances are that the under budget boys from Bondi are just a bit too rampant right now for the blue collar team from the foot of the mountains to stop.
Steve Turner says: The Roosters will win this game comfortably, despite having no Dylan Napa, Aiden Guerra and Jake Friend still out injured. They are the form team of the competition, it is Mini’s 300th the right footy at the right end of the season.
Roosters by 12
Saturday 13 September
Venue: 1300SMILES Stadium – 7:55pm
TV: Channel Nine
Odds: Cowboys $1.42, Broncos $2.95
Dane Eldridge says: Brisbane have stormed in to the finals on the back of a loss and the ineptitude of others, but the dream will die on Saturday night against a Cowboys side that is percolating at the right time. The home side will be too big, too strong, and with guys like Johnathon Thurston and Ashton Sims in their ranks, too damn hairy. Cowboys by 18.
Kris Swales says: Well hasn’t the worm turned in the Sunshine State since a decade ago? The Broncos are now the honest toilers lucky just to be in the finals, while North Queensland are a rustlin’, hustlin’, bustlin’ stampede under Johnathan Thurston’s guidance. Cowboys by as high as you count, which for most of my fellow Queenslanders is 8.
Ryan O’Connell says: Johnathan Thurston has his team primed for a deep finals run, and with the Cowboys facing another Queensland side on Saturday night, you’d think even the referees can’t screw them with an anti-Queensland conspiracy this time.
Cowboys by 10.
Tim Gore says: The Broncs just scraped into the eight courtesy of the Warriors being proved to be pretenders. Take out Ben Hunt and Corey Parker and they would have missed by miles. Traveling to Townsville holds less fear for them than most other sides as they have won there a number of times in recent years.
However, they are up against a Cowboys side with their tails up that is led by arguably the best player in the game right now in Thurston. Add to that the forward leadership of Matt Scott and the Broncos are in trouble.
Steve Turner says: I cannot see the Cowboys losing this one at Townsville.
They have lost only one home game all season and have been in magnificent form over the past five weeks off the back of Thurston and Robert Lui. The Broncos only made the finals due to results going their way. If their half Ben Hunt plays like he did in the second half last week, it will be a tough night for the Broncos. Cowboys by 6
Sunday 14 September – 4:10pm
Venue: AAMI Park
TV: Channel Nine
Odds: Storm $1.32, Bulldogs $3.50
Dane Eldridge says: On current form, the Dogs are going to need supernatural salvation to travel south and beat a Storm outfit that are starting to purr nicely. Unless they resort to some ‘I feared for my life’ tactics in defence or Josh Reynolds refrains from running backline moves with the opposition, they’ll eventually wilt to the relentless android in the last 20. Storm by 14.
Kris Swales says: I just knew Dane would beat me to a Josh Reynolds gag, so attention turns to the most vital match-up of this contest – respective captains Cam Smith and Mick Ennis against referees Matt Cecchin and Gavin Morris. Expect a blend of diplomacy so cunning it would end the Israel-Palestine conflict, interspersed with the odd choice word to set hostilities off again. Storm too classy, Bulldogs too clueless despite the best efforts of James Graham. Storm by 10.
Ryan O’Connell says: Sadly for the Dogs, they’ve got a number of those for the likes of coach Craig Bellamy, Cooper Cronk, Billy Slater and Cam Smith (if fit) to take advantage of. I suspect the Storm will mercifully put these Dogs down on Sunday, along with their disappointing season.
Storm by 20.
Tim Gore says: Josh Reynolds knows how to get under an opponents skin to put them off their game. However, he’ll have to be at his niggling best to put off the metronomic and calm leadership of Smith, Cronk and Slater. At home the Storm should have way too much poise for the faltering Dogs. Canterbury have lost six of their last nine games to drop to 7th spot, having led the competition at the halfway point of the season. They did beat the Storm 6-4 at AAMI in July but that seems a long time ago now.
Steve Turner says: I see the Bulldogs upsetting the Storm in Melbourne.
Everyone will be writing off the Dogs, but with two wins over the Storm this year and an injury cloud over Smith, I see the Bulldogs advancing to week two. The Bulldogs don’t have the form on the board, but the finals is a different competition. Bulldogs by 4
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