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Melbourne most likely to stumble in Week 1 of the NRL finals

11th September, 2014
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Cooper Cronk isn't about to make the switch to union. (Digital Image Grant Trouville © nrlphotos.com)
Expert
11th September, 2014
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1452 Reads

The search for the best chance of an upset win in the first week of the NRL finals keeps leading me back to Canterbury against Melbourne.

Wins by the favourites in all four games would surprise no-one, but I also wouldn’t be surprised by an upset – or upsets.

Rating the games in order of their potential for an upset, I go with the Storm-Bulldogs clash on top, followed by North Queensland-Brisbane, Manly-South Sydney and Sydney Roosters-Penrith.

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»
2014 NRL Finals: full guide to week one
» Roosters vs Penrith preview
» Manly vs South Sydney preview
» North Queensland vs Brisbane preview
» Melbourne vs Canterbury preview

It may sound very basic and boring to talk about completion rates, but Bulldogs coach Des Hasler made a very good point at his media conference on Wednesday when he identified poor ball control as being at the root of his team’s recent failures.

If they continue to complete at a similar rate to what they have done recently, the Bulldogs are in big trouble on the road against Melbourne – whether Storm hooker and captain Cameron Smith plays or not.

If they complete at a good rate or better, they are right in this match.

Melbourne generally played very well over the last four rounds of the regular season, winning three games and losing one, but I think that is as well as they can play.

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Coach Craig Bellamy drives his players hard and they play to such a high level during the season that it is very hard for them to improve in the finals.

That was their problem at the business end of last season, when they exited from the finals with back-to-back losses to Souths and Newcastle in the first two weeks.

It remains to be seen whether Smith plays. He sustained a high ankle sprain in the last-round win over Brisbane and although he made it back onto the field in that game it was the post-game period after he cooled down that mattered.

Smith has been getting a lot of treatment and from all reports hasn’t done anything meaningful on the training track this week, which has to be a worry.

He may well play, but if he does will it be at the risk of him being below his best and aggravating the injury?

Canterbury stumbled through the last eight rounds, losing four games straight before winning two and then losing their last two, but immediately before that four-round losing streak began they beat Melbourne 6-4 at AAMI Park, the venue for Sunday’s clash.

All three Storm superstars – Smith, Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk – played in that game.

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Canterbury have a good record against the Storm since losing to them in the 2012 grand final. They have met four times since and the Bulldogs have won three of those games.

In Round 4 this season, the Bulldogs murdered the Storm 40-12 at NIB Stadium in Perth. Smith missed that game because of injury.

Last season, Melbourne won an early-season clash between the two teams, 22-18. Their second clash came during the State of Origin period, when representative players were unavailable. The Bulldogs beat the badly-depleted Storm 39-0 at ANZ Stadium.

Compared to recent form, the Bulldogs have got an enormous amount of improvement in them on Sunday – if they are able to make that improvement.

It would, of course, help if halves Josh Reynolds and Trent Hodkinson lifted their games to something like the pre-State of Origin level that got them into the NSW team, but that could easily happen.

Reynolds and Hodkinson don’t need huge games for Canterbury to win, but they need to be better than what they have been recently.

Canterbury won’t try to blitz the Storm in attack. They will aim to keep the intensity up, get the forward drive going and smother them in defence, hopefully frustrating Melbourne into a few mistakes along the way.

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And that approach might just work.

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