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How are the Wallabies' World Cup chances looking?

Roar Guru
12th September, 2014
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Israel Folau is the best played in the Wallabies side after Dave Pocock - time to make him captain? (AAP Image/Tony McDonough)
Roar Guru
12th September, 2014
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Before the Rugby Championship 2014 began, I wrote an article on my burgeoning optimism for the Wallabies possibilities at the 2015 Rugby World Cup.

I had ventured into the rarefied air of the real possibility for the Wallabies to make the final and perhaps even win the 2015 Rugby World Cup.

A black-fading-to-grey picture was painted of an All Black side slowly descending from a great peak, with ageing players in key positions.

The Wallabies were given an optimistic treatment, suggesting a number of players who could now rightly be included in a World XV as the best come 2015.

So, how is it all going, now that we are halfway through the 2014 Rugby Championship?

It would not be unfair to say that Wallaby expectations may have suffered a bit of a dip, and All Black hopes have risen. This prognosis is largely based on the shemozzle in Auckland where the All Blacks were determined to scotch any emerging Wallaby optimism for 2015 Rugby World Cup honours.

One swallow does not a summer make, however, and there were a couple of mitigating factors regarding that Wallaby effort. The selection of Kurtley Beale at 10 was widely decried, and his two performances in that position justified the acrimony.

After the draw in Sydney, a match that could well have been won by the Wallabies, the Wallabies did not match up to All Black intensity and physicality in Auckland. I suggest there were man-management issues regarding the lack of Wallaby mental preparation for the Auckland Test as a result of the Kurtley Beale selection at 10 with Bernard Foley benched, creating internal disquiet which was not managed well by McKenzie.

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A win in Sydney followed by a close, even if losing, result in Auckland would have been a positive outcome for the Wallabies, and given encouragement to the hopes for their progress towards Rugby World Cup 2015.

That did not happen.

Against the Springboks in Perth, departed from his decision to bench Bernard Foley in the previous two Tests. Kurtley Beale instead was the man on the bench.

Matt Toomua played 12, with Kurtley Beale replacing him late in the second half. This was the formula in June in the three Tests against France, and it worked quite well. Another change was Nick Phipps replacing Nic White as the run-on halfback, reprising the Waratahs combination.

The Wallabies scored a last gasp try to win the match, with the Waratahs backline delivering the goods at the death. That backline looked very fluid and cohesive. Tevita Kuridrani fitted in like a glove, and had his best game for some time.

Kurtley Beale’s inside pass to Folau and the subsequent one-hander to Bernard Foley giving the space for Tevita Kuridrani to put Ben Horne away were quality. Likewise with the Wallabies early try.

The 60 minutes in the middle of the match was controlled by the Springboks, who should have done more with their opportunities. The Springboks thought they had done enough to secure the win at the 70-minute mark, but the Wallabies showed the resolution and belief to defy the odds and come up with the win.

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Opinions differ as to the value of the last gasp win, but to me, it is a very big confidence-booster. Realistically, the Wallaby performance was flawed in many areas. But it was not all bad.

Scott Allen pointed out that the Wallabies won 8 of 10 line-outs on their own throw. The scrum was mostly very competitive, bar one major glitch.

The Wallaby defence was generally very good. Simple errors, penalties and so on were their undoing. There was a period in the third quarter where there was a real resemblance to headless chickens, and that highlights the leadership hole left by Ben Mowen. Hooper is still on his P-plates when it comes to captaincy.

I expressed the view that a Rugby World Cup-winning team needs a decent number of players who could deservedly be judged as best in their position. I suggested that Folau, Hooper and Ashley-Cooper were already there, while Foley, Phipps, Beale and Slipper had the potential to be.

Obviously it doesn’t take long for individual players’ stocks to rise and fall, and in light of the last three Wallaby performances, a fall is more likely.

Folau is an attacking force who could do a lot better on his line kicks. Interestingly, if Beale was back there with him, I think he wouldn’t have kicked but counterattacked instead.

In New Zealand, Ben Smith is the man. However I liked the way the Wallabies were ready for his attempted acceleration through the kick-chase defensive line in Sydney and stopped him with offensive tackles.

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Folau is more elusive and so difficult to stop, so I think he is the better player. Adam Ashley-Cooper has been banished to the wing. Both played very well.

Conrad Smith was very good in Auckland. I still think Adam Ashley-Cooper is the better player, however.

Hooper has copped some brickbats about a purported lack of physicality over the ball or in tackles, but I like to think that his is an upward curve. That criticism is a hangover from the Wallaby woes in Auckland. Of the others, I still see Bernard Foley, Nick Phipps, Kurtley Beale, and James Slipper looking imminent, while Sam Carter, Wycliff Palu, and Scott Fardy appear to have lost ground.

Higgenbotham looks pretty good from the bench, but we need to see him start. Nathan Charles is now injured again, though acquitted himself well when given the chance..

Mention is made of others on the overseas or injured list, particularly Stephen Moore, David Pocock, Quade Cooper, Will Genia, Henry Speight and James O’Connor.

McKenzie favourites watchers cite a real possibility of Will Genia, Quade Cooper, Matt Toomua and Tevita Kuridrani being the selections of choice come 2015 once the real Rugby World Cup business gets under way.

For me, Will Genia and Quade Cooper have a lot to do to displace Nick Phipps and Bernard Foley, while Matt Toomua just doesn’t have the attacking instincts of Kurtley Beale. To have all these players available and in form would, however, be fantastic, and seamless interchange is a worthy goal which can hopefully be achieved. Many players are needed to win World Cups.

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Forwards win matches so the remainder of the Rugby Championship must show the Wallaby faithful some real improvements in forward consistency, sustained and heightened physicality and error reduction. The sight of the bench players having their turn to run-on would be valuable as well.

All in all, have faith Wallaby heartland. Our cause is not lost, but slowly emerging from a temporary hiatus. There is still a promise of a bigger goal.

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