The first match of the NRL finals saw the South Sydney Rabbitohs pummel Manly in the first 60 minutes to race to a 40-point lead.
While the Sea Eagles made a belated comeback, putting on 24 points, the game was well and truly over. Having tipped the Rabbitohs to win by 24 points in my first finals preview, which also featured the Roosters versus Penrith match, here are all the stats and facts for the remaining two games.
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» NRL Finals information, team lists, full coverage
» 2014 NRL Finals: full guide to week one
» Roosters vs Penrith preview
» North Queensland vs Brisbane preview
» Mastermind’s NRL Finals preview
North Queensland versus Brisbane
7:55pm, Saturday 13 September, Townsville
The history
This is the 40th match between these two sides dating back to 1995 and the record is massively in the Broncos’ favour. The Cowboys have won only nine of the encounters to Brisbane’s 27. There have also been three draws.
In Townsville the Cowboys have only won five of the 21 matches against the Broncos so there doesn’t appear to be much home ground advantage. However, North Queensland are on a record 10-match home winning streak and they won the most recent game between the two sides 27-14 in Townsville.
Defence
Last season the Broncos were easily the NRL’s worst side for missing tackles. They averaged 27 a game. This season they’ve improved a bit and only miss 25.5. However, that’s 3.5 worse than the Cowboys’ average per game and at home they only miss 19.5. The Cowboys concede 55 metres less a game on average than the Broncos but concede half a line break more per match.
Ben Hunt has had a breakout season but he misses a lot of tackles, 3.1 a game. You can be assured that a lot of traffic will run at him. Alex Glenn and Matt Gillett miss a few more than they should as well, missing 2.7 a piece. For the Cowboys Johnathan Thurston misses 2.6 and his halfback Robert Lui misses 2.3.
In regards to penalties, both sides give away less than the season average so you can expect a fairly clean game. Given these stats we can expect minimal spoiling and a pretty quick contest.
Attack
There is very little that separates these two sides in attack. Over the whole season the Cowboys only boast a single extra line break a game over the Broncos and only six more trys. As well, they are ranked number one and two for run metres made, although the Cowboys make an additional 55 metres per game.
One stat that separates is the Cowboys make six more tackle breaks a game. Jason Taumalolo has made 79 so far this year and Michael Morgan 67. For the Broncos Ben Hunt has made 63 and Dale Copley 56.
The Cowboys have a slight edge in the playmaker department. Thurston, Michael Morgan and Lui have all played a significant role in the Cowboys playmaking this season. Between them they have 39 line break assists and 58 try assists. For the Broncos only Hunt and Justin Hodges have been consistent contributors, with a number of options cycling through the five-eighth role. Between them they have 31 line break assists and 32 try assists.
The danger men
Thurston is arguably the best player in the NRL right now. With him at the helm the Cowboys could go all the way this year. His 17 line break assists, 28 try assists and 10 trys are the best stats in the NRL for a playmaker.
Matt Scott is a superb prop. He is averaging 159 metres a game and 28 tackles. He is the cornerstone of the Cowboys pack. Taumalolo started the season with a bang and then went quiet. However, in the last couple of weeks his form has returned. His 127 metres a match and 79 tackle breaks for the season are strong stats. He could be the x-factor in this game.
Ben Hunt may have deficiencies in defence but his attack has been superb this season. He has provided 14 line break assists and 19 try assists. As well he has broken 63 tackles, made 19 line breaks and scored 13 trys. If the Cowboys don’t keep him quiet he could rip them apart.
Dale Copley is the mailman – he delivers. While his average metres a game – 89 – is nothing special, his 19 line breaks, 56 tackle breaks and 16 trys are awesome. If he gets have a chance you can bet he’ll score.
Corey Parker is 84 years old and almost totally grey. You’d think he’d be easing into retirement. Not so, he’s in superb form and wears the captaincy well. He averages 138 metres and 32 tackles a match. What the Cowboys really need to watch are his offloads. He leads the NRL for this stat and will put away his speed men if given half a chance.
Who’s going to win and why
When I started putting these stats together I was certain that the Cowboys would do it easy. However, the Broncos might actually be a better all-round package. The Broncos’ weakness is that their attack revolves around Hunt and if he’s shut down they could struggle to score. Further, Thurston is a footballing god. In the end I think his play and the home ground advantage will get the Cowboys home, but not without an almighty scare.
Tip: Cowboys by four
Melbourne Strom versus Canterbury Bankstown
4.10pm, Sunday 14 September, AAMI Park Melbourne
The history
This is the 36th match between these sides dating back to 1998. It is 18 to 16 in the Dogs’ favour and the Storm have lost the last three. However, the Dogs’ 6-4 win in Round 18 was their first at this venue and they have won only five of the 14 games they have played in Melbourne.
Defence
Canterbury miss 2.5 fewer tackles a game than the Storm. As well, they concede one penalty a match less than the team from the Victorian capital. They concede almost exactly the same amount of metres per match and line breaks. While Melbourne concede the second fewest errors per match in the NRL, it only equates to one fewer than the Bulldogs. The Dogs have conceded 21 fewer points this year than the Storm, but they’ve scored 90 less.
You can expect Michael Ennis and Dale Finucane to give away penalties as they’ve conceded 19 and 17 respectively this season. For the Storm captain Cam Smith is the worst offender with 16 conceded so far. Ben Roberts, Will Chambers and Brian Norrie all have chipped in with 14 apiece.
Mahe Fonua knows how to score a try but his tackling is a bit suspect. He averages three misses a match. Will Chambers and Ben Roberts both miss two a game. The way to beat the Storm is to attack them out wide. Josh Reynolds not only has a few brain explosions a match, he also misses three tackles. They will be running at him and trying to get under his skin for sure. Trent Hodkinson and Moses Mbye also miss two tackles a game.
Attack
Melbourne score nearly one more try and line break a match on average than the Dogs. However, the Dogs make 2.5 more tackle breaks a game. But these are not great differences at all.
The real difference in attack are the playmakers. Hodkinson and Reynolds combined have 16 line break assists and 19 try assists. Cooper Cronk by himself has 15 line break assists and 24 try assists. Throw in Billy Slater’s 11 line break assists and nine try assists and the Dogs look a bit outgunned.
The danger men
Slater is having a quiet year by his standards but he still has 87 tackle breaks, 133 metres a game, 14 line breaks, 12 tries, 11 line break assists and nine try assists to his name. That’s noisy by anyone else’s standard. He has a habit of making the big plays when they matter. As does Cooper Cronk with his excellent playmaking.
Sisa Waqa has 17 tries so far this season and will be a constant worry for the Dogs. As will new boy Marika Koroibete. He has already scored six trys and cemented himself in the side. Jessie Bromwich’s 144 metres, 28 tackles and 35 tackle breaks have him leading the purple forwards with gusto.
Tim Lafai has had an excellent season. His nine line break assists and nine try assists complement his 84 tackle breaks, 11 line breaks and 11 trys. The Storms’ weakness is the defence of the outside backs and Lafai is just the guy to exploit it.
Tolman and Graham not only look similar, they are both averaging 122 metres per match. Their tireless effort can lay the platform for the Dogs here.
Tony Williams is an enigma. He is capable of so much and often delivers so little. While his 56 tackle breaks and 100 metres per game are respectable, his three trys and five line breaks are well below what he is capable of. This match is his opportunity to stand up and make a difference for his side.
Who’s going to win and why
After leading the competition after 11 rounds the Bulldogs have gone on a slide down the table. They’ve lost six of their last eight to just hold onto seventh spot. However, they have played the Storm twice this year and won both times so they are definitely in with a chance here. However, the composure of the Cam Smith led Storm is likely to prevail and in the end I think they’ll kick away.
Tip: Storm by 14
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