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Who said finishing in the top four was important? North Melbourne and Port Adelaide may have missed out on finishing in the top half of the eight, but it didn’t seem to matter as they sent the Geelong Cats and Fremantle crashing out of September in straight sets.
And in doing so, both have earned themselves a shot at the Sydney Swans and Hawthorn in the preliminary finals, and both will have reason to be very confident that they can possibly set up a shock grand final place.
After all, they had defeated their respective opponents in their only regular season meetings this year – the Roos bouncing the Swans by 43 points at the SCG in Round 4 and the Power defeating Hawthorn by 14 points at the Adelaide Oval in Round 10.
For both teams, it will be their first preliminary final since 2007, when the Power thumped the Kangaroos by 87 points before going on to suffer the worst grand final defeat in history by 119 points against Geelong the following week.
Entering this weekend, only two teams in 15 years (Port themselves in 2001 and the West Coast Eagles in 2007) had suffered the ignominy of finishing in the top four and wasting their double chance, crashing out of the finals in straight sets.
And by the end of it, the Geelong Cats and Fremantle would join them in the ‘double chance hall of shame’, and it will lead to questions being asked of them and whether their premiership windows will remain open or shut for the time being.
For the Cats, who have now gone three seasons without reaching the grand final since 2011, it could signal the end of a dynasty that started in the very year their incumbent captain, Joel Selwood, burst onto the AFL scene, winning the AFL Rising Star award and featuring in their 2007 premiership team.
Against the Kangaroos on Friday night, the Cats were put on the back foot right from the very moment Lindsay Thomas kicked the first goal of the match inside the first 15 seconds.
Although the Cats would come back as many expected them to in the final quarter, the Roos would hold on to move through to the last four and set themselves up for a preliminary final showdown against the Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium this Friday night.
After the loss, Selwood demanded his players “take a good look at themselves” and see what needs improving ahead of what shapes as possibly a dynasty-defining 2015 season.
Following the retirements and departures of many premiership players such as Cameron Ling, Darren Milburn, Matthew Scarlett, Joel Corey, Gary Ablett Jr and Paul Chapman, many AFL experts have believed that the Cats’ premiership window could be about to shut sooner rather than later.
But despite all the criticism aimed at them, the Cats not only finished second last year before falling to Hawthorn by less than a kick in the preliminary final, they also finished equal first with the Hawks and Sydney with 17 wins for the regular season, but third on percentage.
In the end, the absence of Steve Johnson due to a foot injury will be what ultimately conspired against them as they exited the finals series in straight sets for the first time since 1997, when they finished second before losing to the Kangaroos (the then-defending premiers who finished seventh) and eventual premiers the Adelaide Crows in consecutive weeks.
After finishing seven of the last eight years in the top three, with 2012 being the only blot when they finished sixth and exited the finals in week one, predictions of a slide down the ladder won’t be as surprising when AFL experts cast their predictions for season 2015.
What will drive the Cats to further success is the response to their critics, who have labelled them as “too old and too slow”, that they’re still “too good”.
That was what drove them to the 2011 premiership when many feared their premiership era would end after Mark Thompson and Gary Ablett Jr left the club for Essendon and the Gold Coast Suns respectively.
Another key player’s absence also conspired against Fremantle as they also exited the finals in swift fashion, coughing up a five-goal lead against Port Adelaide to lose by 22 points in their semi-final at Patersons Stadium.
In this case, it was Hayden Ballantyne whose absence was felt as the Dockers capitulated in the second half against a never-say-die Port Adelaide outfit who will now fancy their chances in next Saturday’s twilight preliminary final against Hawthorn at the MCG.
Not only that, key defenders Luke McPharlin and Michael Johnson were also missing, thus robbing the Dockers of some much needed experience at such a crucial time of the season.
It will also lead to questions as to whether their premiership window will either remain open or shut for a few years. Ross Lyon still remains the best coach in the business never to win that elusive AFL premiership cup.
And sadly, it’s the ultimate prize which will elude Lyon for another twelve months, as he and the Dockers ponder over what will be a long summer before they prepare for what could shape as an era-defining 2015 season.
Two of the club’s most loyal servants, Aaron Sandilands and Matthew Pavlich, will almost certainly be on their last legs and time is starting to run out on them to win a premiership before they retire.
Now, as has already been mentioned, the two preliminary finalists who have emerged from outside the top four to get this far defeated their respective opponents in their only meetings against them during the regular season.
Sydney Swans and Hawthorn who will be heavily favoured to meet in the grand final on Saturday, September 27. However, the Kangaroos and Port Adelaide may have other plans.
Will Sydney become the first minor premier since Adelaide in 2005 to fail to reach the summit match? Can Hawthorn go back-to-back? Or can North Melbourne and/or Port Adelaide break premiership droughts of 15 and 10 years, respectively?
All that will make for what should be two gripping preliminary finals to be played next weekend.
Sydney Swans versus North Melbourne
Friday, September 19
7:50pm
ANZ Stadium, Sydney
Hawthorn versus Port Adelaide
Saturday, September 20
4:45pm
Melbourne Cricket Ground
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