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No Test player is more irreplaceable to their side than Pakistan spinner Saeed Ajmal. But his ban for throwing last week does not guarantee Australia victory in the two-Test series against Pakistan next month.
Only 18 months ago, Australia were flogged 4-0 in India, with their batsmen befuddled by a pair of average spinners in Ravi Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja.
The surfaces in the UAE for the Tests against Pakistan are expected to aid the slow bowlers. They may not be quite as dusty as the decks on which Australia floundered in India last year but they are certainly not the type of surfaces on which they typically thrive.
Ajmal won’t be there, however the tourists will still have to contend with a skillful left-arm tweaker in Abdur Rehman and at least one more spinner.
Incredibly, all of Ajmal’s deliveries were found to be illegal during the testing of his action ordered by the International Cricket Council. It was expected that it would be his doosra which would come under most scrutiny.
The fact that during testing he more than doubled the permissible 15 degrees of flex in his bowling arm suggests he faces an extremely long road back to international cricket.
Ajmal will have to completely overhaul his action. Given he turns 37 next month it is entirely possible that he may never return. If he does, it seems improbable that he will be as effective.
Over his past 22 Tests, Ajmal has reaped 119 wickets at an average of 25. Pakistan have been phenomenally reliant on him during that period.
When they needed to break a partnership, Ajmal was the man. When they needed to slow the run rate, Ajmal was the man. When they needed a miracle, who else would they turn to?
The veteran tweaker was shaping as a frightening opponent for Australia, whose batsmen last year were routed by slow bowlers in India and then menaced by offie Graeme Swann on tailor-made English decks.
In the four-Test series against India, Jadeja and Ashwin combined for a remarkable 53 wickets at an average of 19.
Many of the Australian batsmen were exposed as having either no plan or a faulty strategy for combating spin on helpful surfaces.
Even without Ajmal on the field, Australia face a significant challenge in the form of Pakistan spinners Abdur Rehman and Mohammad Hafeez.
Rehman is similar in style to fellow left armer Jadeja. The 34-year-old does not deliver the ball with an extravagant amount of loop or rip, preferring to dart it at the stumps in search of bowled and LBW dismissals.
He has been a quiet achiever, snaring 54 wickets at an average of 26 from his past 12 Tests. Rehman may have operated in the shadow of Ajmal but he is not to be underestimated.
England discovered this on their tour to the UAE in 2012 when, as the world’s number one side, they were torn apart by Rehman, who collected 19 wickets at 17 as Pakistan romped home in the three-Test series.
Pakistan will almost certainly field a second specialist spinner alongside Rehman. Who that will be is not clear, although left armer Zulfiqar Babar would appear the man most likely to replace Ajmal.
In addition to two frontline spinners Australia may have to contend with all-rounder Mohammad Hafeez, who has blossomed from a part time off spinner into a dangerous bowler.
Hafeez was dropped during Pakistan’s recent Test series against Sri Lanka but is likely to be recalled as Pakistan seek to exploit Australia’s frailty against spin.
In Junaid Khan and Wahab Riaz, Pakistan also have a new ball pair capable of testing Australia’s top order.
Regardless of Ajmal’s omission, Australia have a big task ahead of them to defeat Pakistan in next month’s Test series.