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The biggest problem in Test rugby to solve is how to beat the magnificent All Blacks in New Zealand.
It remains unsolved; the sample size of scalps by visiting nations is tiny, and soon, the number of active players in the world who can remember how they did it will dwindle to less than 15.
Since South Africa defeated the 2009 version of the All Blacks in Hamilton, the men in black have won 36 straight games at home, eight times against Australia and six times over South Africa.
The most points scored against the All Blacks during this run was 33 by Australia, but the Wallabies still lost by eight. The Irish scored the second most (28), but lost by 38.
Some on The Roar have opined that a loss is a loss and there is no difference between the attempted solutions. This sounds wise, except that’s an odd way to solve a tough problem.
I think we should look at the three closest calls for the All Blacks during that prodigious phase of success.
The 8-7 win over a resolute France in the World Cup final featured no advantage in tries scored, loads of controversy and a real arm wrestle. However, in a subsequent match, France lost 33-0 to New Zealand, so we cannot find any sort of doctrinal consistency in their rugby theory to solve the big problem.
A 28-27 win earlier this year against the English tourists in Dunedin just shows that you must be able to sustain pressure for the full 80 minutes.
The third close call, and I would say the closest call, just happened. A 14-10 squeaker in Wellington over the Springboks, described by Ben Smith, the miraculous man who can play any position in the backline except scrumhalf as “panic stations” at the end. All the Kiwis interviewed directly afterwards, except Keiren Read, admitted it was up for grabs, with nothing in it, and the result was in absolute doubt until the last second.
In the denouement of the Cake Tin Test last weekend, South Africa mauled from a deep lineout, came close, tightened a cordon of pressure around the ball they’d not had enough of in the first 70 minutes and finally dominated New Zealand at scrum-time. They won a five-metre put-in, which gave man of the match contender Duane Vermeulen (surely, he would have won that award if he’d scored) clean ball to pick up and have a crack at the line.
If you are playing a Test match in Wellington, and you play well enough to put yourself in a position to win a scrum five metres from the line and one of your best heavy ball carriers can bulldoze towards a try, you have by definition posed a possible solution to the big problem.
Vermeulen has been one of the top players in the Rugby Championship, and in world rugby, for the last two seasons. He is even with Israel Folau for the most defenders beaten in the tournament. He rarely falls backward in contact.
Having played all 320 minutes of the possible four matches, Vermeulen got across the gain line, made the hard yards in and after heavy contact, but was brought down short, giving replacement scrumhalf Francois Hougaard one of those big moments.
This was the moment when the problem could have been solved.
The All Blacks never leave the blindside of a ruck undefended or even lightly defended. You can go back to 1976, you can go back to the 1950s, or as far as you can see televised footage. You won’t see an open channel up the touchline near a New Zealand try line.
You cannot solve the big problem there, in that way, in that tight corner. Well, perhaps if you were feeding Jaque Fourie at full speed, or maybe even a nose-to-the-ground Willem Alberts at his version of full speed.
But really, the blindside was the least probable place to problem-solve. At these moments, game are won and lost.
Hougaard, who had contributed to the problem with excessive and inaccurate kicking in the second half, chose to feed an upright, half-speed Lood de Jager, who was fairly easily bundled into touch by more than one waiting All Black, who could not believe their luck.
There was a dicey lineout thereafter with a fluttering Keven Mealamu throw that quacked as it flew. But that was a fact outside of the Springboks’ control.
The ball was in South African hands, without pressure on our halfback and a couple of metres from the All Black line in Wellington. All the statistics that came before this phase mattered as much as how many deuce points Roger Federer has won to get a tie-break point in a Wimbledon final against Novak Djokovic. Big moments matter, and you cannot do them over.
If you look at moments before the last five minutes, you are ignoring the most important part of the big problem. It’s the All Blacks’ ability to play 80 minutes that is the key to the solution.
They will not give you anything unless you force them into extraordinary pressure, and concomitantly, they will punish you as harshly at 80 minutes as they will at one minute, because they take the field as the fittest team on the planet.
The Springboks, as the French had done in Auckland in 2011, ended the match as fit as the All Blacks. This alone was part of the potential solution. But it was not enough.
Yes, the Springboks have, during this long streak of futility in New Zealand, cut the margin of losses from the 20-33 margins of 2010-11, to 10-14 in 2012-13, and now to four. That’s not a bad trend. But in this calibre of Test match, which I would argue was as high as any played this year, there are these moments that must go your way.
For South Africa, they stopped the try-scoring machine of New Zealand. There were no barnstorming runs by Julian Savea or Ben Smith that unlocked the second and third layers of a magnificent scramble defence. It might seem odd to praise a defence that misses 31 tackles, but let’s be honest.
First, the rate of missed tackles was the same (New Zealand missed one in 4.9 tackles attempted, and South Africa missed one in every 4.5 attempts) and it was the sheer number of tackles, which begins to exponentially exhaust the defending team, that makes the effort staggering.
Second, I think we can all admit that any other team forced to defend that much in New Zealand against an All Black team in mid-season form, firing on all cylinders, would be happy to concede only one try.
I would not complain about penalties for not rolling away against both Victor Matfield and Beast Mtawarira (the latter led to the four-point margin). The breakdown was a war zone all day, and that’s the breaks.
I would look only at our own team. In that situation, driving to the try line with no time left, what is the best alternative? Next time, make the right choice, fast and decisively, and pound with quick, strong presentation of the ball, until you gain the two metres you need.
Is any loss the same as any other loss? No.
If territory-and-possession statistics or dancing, weaving runs are the be-all and end-all of the rugby observer, we should either kick more against the Kiwis, or employ a team of sevens specialists.
Or we can say that solving the big problem will probably come down to a key decision right before the final whistle, because this version of the New Zealand squad will never, ever solve the problem for you.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.