North Melbourne are contenders and they deserve the title. They’ve deserved it all season.
To reach this point of the AFL finals the ‘Roos have clawed their way back from a 33-point deficit against Essendon, and led out their favoured opponents, Geelong, to win by six points in last Friday’s semi-final.
They have gained a strong crop of believers in the past two weeks, but will enter their match this Friday against Sydney as substantial underdogs.
So why should you believe they’re capable of knocking off the Swans and even taking out the flag?
Let’s start with a look at their season.
North Melbourne finished 2014 in 6th place with 14 wins and eight losses.
Five of those eight losses came against sides that ended the season outside the top eight, finishing in a chunky stretch from 10th to 15th.
Those sides were Adelaide, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Carlton and Brisbane.
If the ‘Roos had won just two of those five games, they would have joined the fight for fourth place. If they had won just three, they would have been in a percentage battle for top spot with Sydney, Geelong and Hawthorn.
Let’s imagine they had managed wins against Collingwood in Round 5 and Gold Coast in Round 7 (games they entered even money and reasonable favourites for). Those two wins would have seen them perched in second spot behind the Power with a 9-2 record at the halfway mark of the season.
If they had opened 2014 with those kind of numbers, the level of respect they’d have been afforded would have been, well, Port Adelaide-esque.
More importantly, they would have been poised for a top four – potentially top two – finish.
So why have they never earned the title of a legitimate contender? The obvious (and reasonable) answer is inconsistency.
The ‘Roos are simply a hard team to trust.
In Round 6 they accounted for Fremantle at Patersons Stadium, but backed that ripper up with a seven-goal loss to the Suns at Etihad.
In Round 15 they were pantsed by Brisbane, only to brush off the Hawks by 20-points the following week.
It made no bloody sense; that lack of sense bred doubt.
So how can you trust a team that loses so often when they shouldn’t?
The simple answer is you can’t. You shouldn’t. But in North Melbourne’s case it’s not that simple.
They may lose when they shouldn’t, but they also win when they shouldn’t.
The only top eight sides that got the better of them during the home-and-away season were Geelong and Essendon – two sides that certainly won’t look back on 2014 with any memory of besting the ‘Roos.
They are now the only team left that has beaten all their remaining opponents. Against Sydney, Hawthorn and Port Adelaide they are 3-0 in 2014.
So what counts for more: a habit of switching off when the going looks easy? Or stepping up when you face the best sides in the comp?
The important trend is that North Melbourne are fast becoming big game players – a reputation they were just a couple of wins (against second-rate sides) away from cementing this season.
They face a gargantuan test on Friday night against Sydney, but all signs point to them being well placed to answer confidently.
Brent Harvey being cleared to play is beyond significant. Boomer is far more than a highly serviceable player, he’s a symbol of those good old days when North were champs – and bloody tough blokes!
The days of Byron Pickett, Glenn Archer and David King. The days of premierships.
Days that really weren’t that far back.
Days that could be back very, very soon.
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