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If North Melbourne defeat Sydney in tonight’s preliminary final it will be a massive upset.
The Swans have been a wrecking ball this season following the recruitment of former Hawthorn dynamo Lance Franklin, who has been remarkably influential.
North were highly unpredictable for most of the season but have now won their last six matches on the trot, including a boilover against Geelong last week.
Although they have proven to be giant killers this season, few are predicting they can get past Sydney at ANZ Stadium.
More AFL Finals:
» Expert tips and predictions
» PREVIEW: Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
» PREVIEW: Hawthorn Hawks vs Port Adelaide Power
But, if they do, where would that sit among the most unexpected AFL finals results of the past 15 years?
Below I have listed some of the largest finals upsets in modern AFL history. What matches would you pick Roarers?
1999: Carlton defeat Essendon at the MCG in the preliminary final
The Essendon side of this era was one of the most terrifying line-ups in history. Wonderfully skilful and willfully aggressive, they steamrolled most opponents.
In 1999 they finished a game clear on top of the ladder, registering six more wins than Carlton, who ended in sixth place.
The Blues snuck into the preliminary final but were never expected to go any further, with the Bombers in imperious form.
But Carlton proved that anything can happen in a knockout final, surging to a four-goal lead at half time. When Essendon piled on 7.7 in the third quarter to move ahead by 11 points it looked like they had broken the underdogs.
Then Blues legend Anthony Koutoufides produced what was later described by Stephen Kernahan as the “greatest quarter of football every played”.
Koutoufides roamed the wide expanses of the MCG, winning clearances, hauling in contested grabs and kicking two pivotal goals.
While Carlton lost the grand final to the Wayne-Carey led North Melbourne, it was a huge surprise they even made it that far.
2003: Sydney defeat Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium in the first qualifying final
Port Adelaide looked on target to make their first appearance in an AFL grand final after finishing an incredible three games clear on top of the ladder in 2003.
Sydney, meanwhile, were coming off an up-and-down regular season and were very fortunate to scrape into fourth position, winning just 14 games.
Port came into this final on an eight-game winning streak, whereas Sydney had a 4-4 record during that same period.
Port were overwhelming favourites with the bookies, pundits and fans. That mattered little as the famous Bloods’ spirit overwhelmed their more gifted opponents.
Intimidating Swans spearhead Barry Hall booted six goals as Sydney held off a fast-finishing Power to nab a 12-point win.
Port never recovered from that loss and missed the grand final in 2003 as Brisbane completed their famed premiership three-peat. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Oro4_a0zYo
2012: Fremantle defeat Geelong at the MCG in the second elimination final
The Cats finished the 2012 season in sixth, just one spot above Fremantle, yet this final shaped as a mismatch.
Geelong were the reigning premiers and had won three flags in the previous five seasons to cement themselves as one of the greatest teams in AFL history.
Fremantle were a talented outfit but had an underwhelming record at the MCG and had never won a final outside of Perth.
But the Dockers torched their fancied opponents in startling fashion early in the game, opening up a 44-point lead in the second quarter. To that point they had scored 6.9 to just 0.1 for Geelong.
Superstar key forward Matthew Pavlich turned in the most valuable performance of his career, slotting six goals to help earn the Dockers a shock 16-point win.
The shock loss led to claims that Geelong were at the end of an era. But they bounced back to finish second in 2013, with an 18-4 record, before losing a tight preliminary final against eventual premiers Hawthorn.