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The Manly Sea Eagles will travel the short distance to Allianz Stadium on Saturday night to face the Canterbury Bulldogs at home in the 2014 NRL Finals.
Few have given an injury-depleted Manly side a chance of winning this game – this rings particularly true considering the 40-24 thrashing handed down by the South Sydney Rabbitohs last weekend. If Souths hadn’t switched off in the last 20 minutes, the margin certainly would have been more.
This underdog status, however, might favour the Sea Eagles. Statistically the Bulldogs had a less impressive defensive regular season than Manly, who produced a more effective offensive performance 2014.
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» Full match information, team lists
Looking at the team stats tells an interesting story about the two sides.
While the Bulldogs have made the second most total runs this year (4044) slightly more than Manly (3937), the Sea Eagles capitalised on their runs more effectively, creating 111 line breaks to the Bulldogs’ 87. Last week, however, proved a different story, with the Bulldogs’ backs, in particular Tim Lafai, dynamic in attack.
They also got their short passing game in the forwards back, with man of the match James Graham particularly impressive with ball in hand.
The Sea Eagles (90) have scored 14 more tries than their Canterbury counterparts (76). Defensively, the Bulldogs missed only 595 tackles in 2014 – the third lowest in the competition, whereas the Sea Eagles missed 698 – 103 more than Canterbury in total.
With Canterbury completing more offloads (251) than Manly (227) it can be inferred that the Sea Eagles have been more clinical in attack.
They will have to get that back this week, but scoring points has not been the Sea Eagles problem of late. If they can prevent the Bulldogs’ attacking threats, they will go a long way to winning this game.
| Player | Josh Reynolds | Trend Hodkinson | Tim Lafai | Daly Cherry-Evans | Jamie Lyon | Peta Hiku |
| Played | 15 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 24 |
| Tries | 2 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| Goals | 0 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 65 | 0 |
| FG | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Points | 9 | 142 | 22 | 15 | 154 | 68 |
| Tackles | 279 | 336 | 242 | 422 | 328 | 140 |
| Run metres | 1213 | 1001 | 2145 | 1376 | 1714 | 2656 |
For Manly, they must not dwell on past successes, or focus too much on the very recent past. While a second place finish is indicative of early season success, the injury and suspension-hit Sea Eagles will need to remember that winning way from earlier in the season to get over the line here.
Third-string hooker Jayden Hodges has been named despite leaving the field last week in a neck brace. To compound Manly’s forward pack problems, Origin back-rower Anthony Watmough has been suspended for one week – cited for a dangerous throw on Greg Inglis.
Captain Jamie Lyon received the same charge for his part in the dangerous tackle, however his clean record has seen Lyon avoid a suspension. Manly will also provide Hodges and Matt Ballin with an extended period to prove their fitness.
With the suspension to Watmough Manly have moved Tom Symonds to the second row, and shuffled Dunamis Liu to the lock position from the bench. James Hasson will move to the bench. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, look rejuvenated after a 28-4 defeat of the Melbourne Storm – the side that defeated Canterbury in the 2012 Grand Final.
Moreover, the Bulldogs’ hulking forward pack has shown positive signs in recent weeks. Origin half Josh Reynolds was also impressive last week, returning to his prior form and running the ball with vigour. But with arguably the best offensive back seven in the competition it would be irresponsible for Canterbury to write off Manly.
It will most likely be the Bulldogs forward pack however, that limits the Manly backs – as it has done in the past the old adage of ‘doing the hard yards down the middle’ will win this one for the Bulldogs.
| Winners | Score | Home/Away | Date | Season |
| Bulldogs | 23 – 16 | ANZÂ Stadium | 05 Jul | 2014 |
| Sea Eagles | 32 – 10 | Brookvale Oval | 06 Jun | 2014 |
| Bulldogs | 30 -32 | Brookvale Oval | 14 Jun | 2013 |
| Sea Eagles | 6 – 20 | ANZ Stadium | 05 Apr | 2012 |
| Bulldogs | 16 – 10 | ANZ Stadium | 07 Sep | 2012 |
Manly Sea Eagles
1. Brett Stewart
2. Jorge Taufua
3. Steve Matai
4. Jamie Lyon
5. Peta Hiku
6. Kieran Foran
7. Daly Cherry-Evans
8. Jason King
9. Jayden Hodges
10. Brenton Lawrence
11. Tom Symonds
12. Justin Horo
13. Dunamis Lui
Interchange: Jesse Sene-Lefao, Cheyse Blair, James Hasson, Josh Starling.
Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs
1. Sam Perrett
2. Corey Thompson
3. Tim Lafai
4. Josh Morris
5. Mitch Brown
6. Josh Reynolds
7. Trent Hodkinson
8. Aiden Tolman
9. Michael Ennis
10. James Graham
11. Josh Jackson
12. Tony Williams
13. Greg Eastwood
Interchange: Reni Maitua, Dale Finucane, David Klemmer, Moses Mbye.
Kickoff: Saturday 20th September, 7.45pm AEST
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Last Meeting: Bulldogs 23 def Sea Eagles 16, Round 17 2014
Referee: Gerard Sutton, Ben Cummins
Head-to-Head: Sea Eagles 5, Bulldogs 5 (Last 10 meetings)
Betting: Sea Eagles $2.30, Bulldogs $1.62
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