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The Sea Eagles and Bulldogs could not have had more differing results in the first weekend of the finals. The Sea Eagles were blown off the park by the Rabbitohs in the first 60 minutes at Allianz Stadium – at one stage they were down 40-0.
The Bulldogs on the other hand were supposed to be a mere warm-up for the Storm. Instead, they ran out winners 28-4 in one of their most impressive performances in recent months.
So, what to expect this weekend?
MORE NRL Finals:
» FULL NRL FINALS DRAW
» 2014 NRL Finals: Full guide to week 2
» Tim Gore’s stat attack: Roosters vs Cowboys is too close to call
» Roosters stars will chase the Cowboys out of town
» Full match information, team lists
Sea Eagles versus Bulldogs
7:45pm, Saturday 20 September, Allianz Stadium
The history
This is the 135th clash between these two sides. It stands at 70 to 59 in the Sea Eagles favour, with five draws. The last 10 matches have been split five a piece. The two matches this year have also been split, with one win each.
In Round 10 this season, I ran my usually reliable stats prediction for who would win this year’s premiership. The method I used correctly predicted, in Round 10 of both the 2012 and 2013 seasons, the Storm and the Roosters as those years premiers. This year the same formula couldn’t separate Manly and the Dogs.
In Round 13 the Sea Eagles beat the Dogs by 22 in a lopsided contest. However, the Dogs only missed 13 tackles in that game to the Sea Eagles 22 misses. The real story is Canterbury’s 14 errors. Manly, conversely, only made five.
It was a full strength Dogs side that went down in that game. In the Round 17 clash, the Dogs were missing Trent Hodkinson, Josh Reynolds and Sam Perrett. Tony Williams played halfback and Josh Jackson five-eighth.
The Sea Eagles were missing Daly Cherry-Evans and Jorge Taufua. This time, the Dogs prevailed in a tight contest on the back of massive games from Dale Finucane, Sam Kasiano and especially James Graham.
These two sides have only met at this venue once before: the 1995 grand final, which the Dogs won 17-4.
Last week
Last week, when I predicted that Manly would get flogged by the Bunnies, I was met with bemusement and incredulity. I was heckled on line and on air. While Manly’s four tries in junk time cut the margin to 16, I think people now understand what I knew – Matt Ballin is crucial to the fortunes of the Brookvale boys.
The Dogs were unloved by the punters – and me – against the Storm in Melbourne but they took their more fancied opponents apart. While I did get the prediction wrong, I did nominate Tim Lafai as a danger man and that at least was spot on.
But how good was James Graham? He led his forwards to dominate the purple pack. Seven of the nine Doggies forwards made more than 100 metres.
With Anthony Watmough now out and Ballin only a slim chance to play, the form of the Doggies forwards does not bode well for Manly’s severely depleted pack.
Defence
Not much separates these sides defensively. The Dogs miss four fewer tackles on average than Manly but they concede 30 more metres a match than the Sea Eagles. The Dogs also concede one extra penalty a match.
However, last week Manly missed 42 tackles while the Dogs only missed 16. Only two Sea Eagles didn’t miss tackles, Cheyse Blair and Jason King.
Ballin, Glenn Stewart and Anthony Watmough are the glue that holds Manly’s usually rock solid defence together. Without them this week – and against a rampaging Dogs pack – the Manly defence line may resemble little more than maroon speed bumps.
Expect Ennis, Finucane, Jackson and Reynolds to give away penalties as they’ve amassed 65 between them so far this year. Manly’s worst offenders – Lyon, Starling and Horo – only have 39 between them.
Attack
In attack, Manly have scored 13 more tries than the Dogs this year. However, Manly have made the fourth-least tackle breaks in the NRL and only eight more line breaks than the Dogs this season.
Manly scored the second least points of all the sides in the top eight. The only side below them was Canterbury. However, if the two sides last five games are used as a guide, the Bulldogs will win this game 24-16.
If the Sea Eagles are to have any chance, their stellar backline must fire. Matai, Brett Stewart, Taufua, Peter Hiku and Cherry-Evans – who have 58 line breaks and 52 tries between them – must go on an attacking rampage.
This is very difficult behind a pack with little go forward. Of the Manly forwards taking the field, not one averages more than 100 metres a game. Canterbury, on the other hand, have Tony Williams, Tolman and James Graham who average more than a ton each a match.
The latter two are on fire. They are tireless in attack and defence, with Graham regularly playing more than 70 minutes and chasing down opposition backs. It is hard to see Manly holding them to their average of more than 120 metres each a game.
The danger men
If Matt Ballin plays – and he is fit – he could get the Sea Eagles mojo going again. However, if he doesn’t, or worse he breaks down, this could get ugly. Jayden Hodges looked like a boy sent out to do a man’s job last week.
If there was ever a time that Daly Cherry-Evans needed to justify his value to the Sea Eagles, it is in this match. However, he and halves partner Kieran Foran only have average stats for a playmaking combo.
They share only 12 line break assists, 26 try assists and nine tries between them in 2014. Matai and Stewart have 25 line break assists, 29 try assists and 22 tries between them making them the men far more likely to get the Sea Eagles up.
The Manly crowd is renowned for not crossing the bridge. However, their side desperately needs them to turn up in large numbers if they are to be any chance here.
For the Dogs we’ve already talked about Tolman and Graham. These two lookalikes must be limited in effect or this will be a cricket score.
Tim Lafai’s huge game last week sees his already impressive stats get imposing. He now boasts 89 tackle breaks, 12 line breaks, 14 tries and 100 metres a game to go with his nine line break assists and 10 try assists.
Michael Ennis is a bit of a danger too. He caused a great number of experts and players to nearly have strokes through his ‘disrespect’ of Cam Smith last week. There’s little doubt that the Bulldogs hooker is a bit of a grub but anyone who takes the rugby league field is fair game, including his Royal Highness Cameron Smith.
It’s ridiculous to suggest anything else. Look for Ennis to try and stir Jamie Lyon right up.
Who’s going to win and why
Unless Matt Ballin is a late inclusion – and he is fit – then this could be uglier for Manly than last week’s first half against Souths. Having lost only five of their first 19 matches and looking so good for the minor premiership that some bookies were paying out on it, the Sea Eagles have lost four of their last six to now look like crashing out in straight sets.
A fully fit Sea Eagles would still be a really good chance to take the title but missing Ballin, Buhrer, Glenn Stewart and Anthony Watmough has left them massively undermanned. Add to that the Dogs resurgent form and we are looking at a thrashing.
Canterbury by 20+