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Aiden Guerra and Jake Friend back for Sydney Roosters. Tariq Sims out for North Queensland. The home-ground advantage to the Roosters. These factors are enough to give the Roosters the edge at Allianz Stadium tonight.
I don’t doubt the Cowboys are capable of winning. They’ve played some great football recently. But I think that, as the two teams line up for this game, the Roosters are a little better than the opposition and will be suitably chastened by last weekend’s narrow loss to Penrith.
The best teams usually respond really well to a kick in the backside and I’m confident the Roosters come into that bracket. After having played so well towards the end of the regular season to win the minor premiership, they’re too good a team to exit the finals in straight sets.
It should be one hell of a game though, and it’s quite possible the scores will be close enough for both teams to still be a chance of winning right in the final moments.
The Roosters dodged a bullet when Jared Waerea-Hargreaves escaped being charged for his high shot on Penrith’s Brent Kite. It was one of those developments that means so much during a finals series.
The Cowboys obviously weren’t so lucky with Sims, who in my mind got no less than he deserved for charging into Brisbane’s Justin Hodges and injuring him after he had passed the ball.
North Queensland whipped the Roosters 42-10 in Townsville in Round 10, but as has been pointed out the Roosters were without Mitchell Pearce that night.
The Cowboys were without Jason Taumalolo, who will play tonight, but they did have Brent Tate in their side. Tate eventually had his season cut short by a knee injury and subsequently retired. They really could have done with him tonight.
Tariq Sims is a big body who likes to make his presence felt. A finals game against a big, tough Roosters pack would have suited him.
Guerra is a hard worker in defence, but also a damaging runner of the ball. He has had a terrific season and has the potential to make a match-winning play in a game like this. Friend does plenty of defending as well, but is also hugely skilled around the rucks.
The Roosters badly missed Friend and Guerra against the Panthers. Had they played, I firmly believe the Roosters would have won instead of losing by a point.
The Roosters are without the suspended Dylan Napa, but to have just one regular player unavailable at this stage of the season is pretty good.
They are not even remotely in as much trouble as Manly, who face an enormous challenge against Canterbury at Allianz Stadium on Saturday night.
I look at this game and conclude that the only way the Bulldogs can lose is by beating themselves. I don’t see how the Sea Eagles can beat them if Canterbury are on their game.
Manly don’t look to stand a chance in the forwards, going in without the injured Glenn Stewart, Jamie Buhrer and Matt Ballin and the suspended Anthony Watmough against a Bulldogs pack that ran over the top of Melbourne last weekend.
If the Bulldogs don’t get ahead of themselves and concentrate on establishing a physical advantage first, they should win clearly.
A check of the Manly bench, where Jesse Sene-Lefao, Cheyse Blair, James Hasson and Josh Starling are named, provides a clear indication of how thin their forward ranks are. Where are the potential game-breakers there?
Canterbury will be able to call on players like Frank Pritchard and David Klemmer from their bench.
Manly didn’t have the best forward pack in the competition even when everyone was available, but it would have been more than good enough for them to win the premiership when you consider the class of their backline.
But I can’t see their backs getting much room in which to move on this occasion.
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