What wins premierships? Such a simple question deserves a simple response, yet the answer still eludes us.
Some argue that premierships are built on a solid defence. Some argue that you have to get lucky (if only the ball had bounced the other way for Milne!).
Others argue that it comes down to the best team on the day.
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» PREVIEW: Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
» PREVIEW: Hawthorn Hawks vs Port Adelaide Power
The latter camp is partly right. As the saying goes, you have to be in it to win it. But what other factors contribute to a club playing on grand final day?
Since the inception of the revamped finals system in 2000 we have come to expect sides that finish in the top four to play off against each other in the preliminary finals. For the first time since 2000, however, two sides that finished outside of the top four are still in contention in the second last weekend in September.
In other words, all logic has been thrown out the window.
Nonetheless, a top-four finish clearly has its advantages, namely the double chance and promise of at least one home final.
But there is another factor that may be even more influential come finals time: the number of players used by each team throughout the season.
Perhaps it is not the team of greatest players that wins premierships, but the greatest team of players who consistently play beside each other every week.
Let’s have a look at the numbers.
Since 2000, every premiership team (except Brisbane in 2001) has used fewer players than the league average. In many cases, the gap is quite telling.
In 2007, for example, Geelong used 31 players compared to the league average of 35.63. Essendon in 2000 used 31 compared to the league average of 36.06.
Most interestingly, however, are the figures for years in which underdogs tasted the ultimate success. In 2012, the Swans upset Hawthorn by 10 points. The Swans played 31 players throughout the season, whereas the Hawks played 34.
Did the Swans get lucky? Or was their consistent team of players more in tune with one another come grand final day?
In 2008, Hawthorn were the ones dealing out a shocking defeat to red-hot favourites, Geelong. The Cats had finished four games clear of the Hawks, comfortable winners of the minor premiership and near certainties to take home the flag.
The league average for players used by each club in 2008 was 35.88; however, Hawthorn and Geelong both used only 31 players. Did this put Hawthorn and Geelong on an equal footing come grand final day? Did this equality erode the four-game buffer that Geelong had over Hawthorn at the end of the home-and-away season?
I can already hear the detractors. A bottom-four side could play with the same number of players as the premiership side all year, does this mean that they, too, would be on an equal footing?
It’s a fair argument. But the numbers show that the teams that make grand finals and the teams that go on to win premierships are the ones that are playing with the same consistent team. Not the teams that finish last.
In 2008, for example, Melbourne won the wooden spoon and played 39 players – 8 more than that of Hawthorn and Geelong. In 2005, the premiers, Sydney, used 32 players, whereas the last placed Carlton used 35. And in 2013 Hawthorn played 34 players and won the premiership, whereas Greater Western Sydney played 46 players and won the wooden spoon.
Heading into preliminary final weekend, will the numbers stack up?
In 2014 the average number of players used by each club is currently 36.83, and all four remaining sides are below this number.
The Kangaroos have used 36 players, Hawthorn have used 35 players and Sydney and Port Adelaide have both used 33 players to date.
Most notably, Hawthorn has had an injury-interrupted season. Key players, such as Josh Gibson, Jarryd Roughead, Luke Hodge and Cyril Rioli – who still remains in doubt for this weekend – have all had time on the sidelines this year due to injury.
It is yet to be seen whether this will have any affect on the 2013 premiers, who have coped incredibly well with these injuries, as well as coach Alistair Clarkson’s illness.
But, if the numbers do tell the truth, Hawthorn may fall agonisingly short – if not this weekend, then perhaps the next.
All of the teams that have been eliminated from the 2014 finals used 35 (Fremantle, Geelong, Essendon) or 36 (Richmond) players, the same number fielded by Hawthorn and North.
Maybe it will be a Swans versus Port grand final. That is, if the numbers are correct.
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