My theory about this year’s three-year-old crop being outstanding is about to face its acid test, with the Paul Messara trained Panzer Division taking on the older horses at weight-for-age.
Of course these three-year-olds have only just graduated from the two-year-old ranks in August, so I have had little to work with.
I am purely basing my assumption on the fact that as two-year-olds a great many of them were bettering, or roughly equalling the times of older horses, at the same distance, on the same day, and at the same track.
Since early August I have even been recording how well they are performing against older horses in restricted class races (mainly), and results are impressive. Interesting, only a few of the winners have been entered in my black book, so I’m even more encouraged.
Panzer Division is though, not only off his debut win, but also at his last start when he ran faster time over 1400 metres than Lucia Valentina did in winning the Tramway Handicap for older horses at Group 2 level. In fact he bettered her time by almost one second, and the last 600 metre sectional for both was very similar, which franks the overall time.
From 1992 to 2001 this was a great race for the three-year-olds. In that 10-year period, six managed to win. But to my knowledge they all came through the Spring Stakes at Newcastle, with the possible exception of Viscount in 2001. Coronation Day, March Hare, Encounter, Dracula and Shogun Lodge were the other winners.
Part of the reason they were able to win was because they had a fitness edge on their older rivals, who had only had, at most, two runs back from a spell. The three-year-olds that contested the Spring Stakes had already had a run at 1600m and most often were three or four runs into their preparation.
I’m not quite sure of the exact year, but since then the scheduling of either (or both) the Spring Stakes at Newcastle, or the George Main Stakes has changed, and they are now run during the same week.
Since that win of Viscount in 2001 no three-year-old has managed to salute, but then again only five have attempted it in a 12-year period.
Only one has placed (Onemorenomore), while All Too Hard could have done a lot better in 2012, if he had been in better form, and not missed the start. He was also off a 21-day break, which wasn’t ideal against older and more seasoned opponents. Onemorenomore was off a 21-day break when he ran third, and Duporth was even less suited off a 27 day break when he attempted it and was unplaced.
Dane Shadow managed to run a decent fourth in 2004, even though he finished a well-beaten third in the Spring stakes 11 days earlier. He had only won the one race from six starts coming in, and is possibly the worst credentialed three-year-old to ever contest the race in quite a strong year (Grand Armee won).
Last year Dissident looked likely to do the job. After a surprise second in the Golden Rose a week earlier, trainer Peter Moody decided to test him on the backup. He ran disappointingly, and we can say in hindsight that he is a better horse when fresh, or at least with two weeks between runs.
Even if a runner came out of this year’s rendition of the Golden Rose to run here you would be apprehensive about its prospects for the same reason. It’s also interesting to note that the time recorded in the Golden Rose last year was very poor in comparison to that run by Theo Marks winner Riva De Lago.
This year the comparison is slightly better, but I’m even more enthused about the time Panzer Division ran compared to the Tramway a week earlier.
Had Panzer Division started last week in the Golden Rose he would have been competitive. There is no doubt whatsoever that given ordinary luck Scissor Kick would have won that race, and there was barely a cigarette paper between he and Panzer Division in the Up And Coming Stakes on August 23.
Added to that Panzer Division gave runner-up Shooting To Win 1 kilogram in weight when winning the Ming Dynasty Quality two weeks ago, and beat him home by 1.3 lengths. That horse finished third last week in the Golden Rose, beaten by 1.5 lengths at level weights.
Trainer Paul Messara has stated that he would prefer a dry track for this horse, and I concur given his debut win at Kembla on a dry track. He thrashed Bascule there, who has won his two subsequent starts. Many that saw his Ming Dynasty race win feel that he didn’t enjoy the heavy surface at all, dipping and diving over the last 200 metres, but he was a mile too good for his rivals despite that.
Messara responsibly left him in his stable last week when the temptation would have been strong to get a Group 1 win against his own age.
I really do like his chances in this race but there are always negatives that any analyst has to take into account.
Firstly, will his inexperience count against him given he has only had three career runs? Quite possibly but he could keep improving as he has arguably done at every start so far.
Secondly, will he run a strong mile at Randwick? Breeding suggests he will given he has a three quarter sister that has won twice at 1600 metres on wet tracks. And at least he has won at Randwick (and placed).
Thirdly, how will barrier 8 of 10 affect his chances in a small field? At face value it shouldn’t providing he doesn’t miss the start. He has raced on or near the pace at all three starts thus far and there doesn’t appear to be abundant speed in the race. If he didn’t sit second or third early, or even lead I’d be very disappointed.
Fourthly, is he even capable of beating the quality of opposition he meets? That is something we don’t really know because he has only raced his own age, but given the times he has run it is quite likely
Finally, will the run on the heavy track last start have flattened him? Again it is impossible to ascertain and even the trainer can’t be certain. He can only prepare the horse to the best of his ability, and 14 days since his last run gives him a better grounding than other three-year-olds that have attempted this race in recent times.
Summing up the dilemma for me is can a three-year-old now win this race without having a run at 1600 metres beforehand? And does the fact that Panzer Division is in winning form (at this track) only 14 days ago negate that factor?
Given ordinary luck and a sensible ride in the race we are about to find out, but he really does looks a super chance to break a 12-year drought for his own age group in this time honoured race.
I will be cheering him on.
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