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2014 AFL Brownlow Medal: Complete guide, tips, odds

22nd September, 2014
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22nd September, 2014
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The 2014 AFL Brownlow Medal kicks off at 8:15pm (AEST) on Monday night and looks destined to be one of the tightest counts of recent years.

2014 BROWNLOW MEDAL RESULT: THE WINNER IS MATT PRIDDIS

The Roar‘s Brownlow master, Alfred Chan, is tipping Gary Ablett to just sneak home and secure his third Brownlow Medal despite playing just 15 games in 2014.

Alfred has successfully tipped the past two Brownlow winners and their exact number of votes polled.

Although tipping Ablett to walk away with his third Charlie, Alfred’s calculations point to Nathan Fyfe polling the most votes, becoming the first ineligible player to do so since Chris Grant polled 27 votes in 1997.

Fyfe was named the League’s Most Valuable Player by the AFL Players Association earlier this month.

Although a good indicator of who will be among the votes on Brownlow night, the two awards have only aligned three times in the past 10 season: 2005 (Ben Cousins), 2009 (Gary Ablett) and 2013 (Gary Ablett).

Robbie Gray received the most votes from AFL coaches, taking out the AFL Coaches Association award with 111 votes ahead of Nathan Fyfe on 95. Gary Ablett finished in fifth with 72 votes.

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Much like the AFLPA’s MVP, the Coaches award has had limited success as an indicator of who will walk away with Charlie on Brownlow night. Since its inception in 2003, it has aligned on just the three occasions with the League’s most coveted award: 2003 (Nathan Buckley), 2006 (Adam Goodes) and 2009 (Gary Ablett).

If Gray walks away with the award, he will become the first Brownlow Medalist for Port Adelaide since they entered the AFL in 1997.

TOP 10 RUNNERS

Player Odds Games Avg. Disposals Avg. Goals
Joel Selwood $2.50 22 25.6 1
Gary Ablett $4.00 15 32.1 1.6
Robbie Gray $7.00 22 24.9 1.7
Josh Kennedy (Syd) $8.00 20 28.6 0.6
Jordan Lewis $13.00 21 27.4 0.7
Dyson Heppell $17.00 21 28.4 0.3
Lance Franklin $17.00 19 16.8 3.6
Matt Priddis $17.00 22 28.5 0.4
Scott Pendlebury $17.00 21 28.4 0.6
Travis Boak $41.00 21 26.8 0.8

*Odds correct as of 9:30am (AEST) Monday, September 22.

Gary Ablett is sure to stand out in the 15 games he played in 2014. Before he went down with a shoulder injury he was a clear front-runner for the award, and many estimations put him in excess of 20 votes at that stage. Tonight’s vote looks destined to be a matter of who can chase the little master down in the final seven rounds.

Joel Selwood has put in some starring performances in the back end of the season and should poll strongly from Round 17 to 19, however his final few games will likely yield little.

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Robbie Gray had a blistering final four rounds and should find himself amongst the votes in all of those games. If he can pick up a couple of best-on-grounds, he might be capable of sweeping past the field as the final votes are called.

Josh Kennedy should again be near the front of the pack, but taking the field each week alongside so many potential top 20 finishers, he may struggle to poll enough as the votes are shared with Lance Franklin, Dan Hannebury and Luke Parker.

If his predicted 3-vote games turn into 1-vote games, he could find himself well off the pace entering the final two rounds – games he missed nursing a hamstring injruy.

The AFL commissioned eight medals to be produced in the lead up to the 2014 count, another reason to expect a nail-biting finish.

The last drawn count was a three-way tie in 2003 between Mark Ricciuto, Nathan Buckley and Adam Goodes. Could 2014 provide the next drawn vote?

The Roar’s tip:
1. Gary Ablett – Should have done enough in the early rounds to hold on.
2. Robbie Gray – Will storm home in the final rounds but just fall short.
3. Trent Cotchin (Smokey) – A strong start to the year along with Richmond’s barnstorming finish should see him poll well.

Join The Roar for live coverage of the 2014 Brownlow Medal from 8:00pm (AEST).

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Be sure to share your thoughts on who will take home the 2014 Brownlow Medal in the comments below.

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