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Matt Priddis of the West Coast Eagles has secured the 2014 Brownlow Medal with 26 votes, one vote clear of the ineligible Nathan Fyfe (25).
Priddis skipped past Fyfe in the final round with a two-vote match, to finish four votes clear of his closest eligible rivals Gary Ablett (22) and Lance Franklin (22).
Brownlow favourite, Joel Selwood, finished the night on 21 votes along with Josh Kennedy, Patrick Dangerfield and Travis Boak.
FINAL LEADERBOARD:
1 – Matt Priddis (26)
2 – Nathan Fyfe* (25)
3 – Gary Ablett, Lance Franklin (22)
5 – Travis Boak, Patrick Dangerfield, Josh Kennedy, Joel Selwood (21)
Tonight’s AFL Brownlow Medal count promises to be one of the closest in recent history, with as many as five players arguably headed in as the favourite. Join The Roar for the live count of every vote from 8:15pm (AEST).
If my predictive skills are anything to go by, Geelong captain Joel Selwood is in the box seat take home the 2014 Brownlow, after falling just one vote short at the count last year.
The 26-year-old’s trophy cabinet already boasts three Premiership Medals, the 2007 Rising Star Award, four All Australian selections, two Best and Fairest awards, a Best Captain award and four Most Courageous awards from the AFLPA, but it is set to get more crowded still.
My prediction has Selwood finishing just a single vote ahead of former teammate Gary Ablett, with the Cat to win on a total of 27 votes for the season.
It is probably about now, hopefully before anyone has gone and bet their house on Selwood, that I should state that I’m not at all confident in my prediction.
Now this is the second year I’ve been running my mock Brownlow and, so far, I have a 100% strikerate. That said, if you didn’t predict Ablett to win last year, what rock were you living under?
Ablett is every chance of winning it again this year, which is huge considering he missed seven games through shoulder injury to close out the year.
My prediction has him totalling 26 votes before his season ends, at a phenomenal rate of 1.73 votes per game in 2014.
If Ablett does win, he would become just the fifth player in VFL/AFL history, and the first in the AFL era, to win three Brownlow medals.
It would also be the most games missed in a Brownlow-winning season ever.
Also in close contention I have Josh P. Kennedy (23 votes), Scott Pendlebury (22) and Robbie Gray (21).
Kennedy I was expecting to be the eventual winner with five rounds to go, but a hamstring injury that saw him miss his last two games of the year may have cost him the medal.
Gray’s rise to elite status this year has been nothing short of remarkable, and Pendlebury has had yet another consistent season.
Lance Franklin follows bearing 20 votes. Many consider Franklin a genuine chance to take the Brownlow home, but I think a slow start to the season will see him fall short.
Three players who are ineligible through suspension have cracked my top ten. Nathan Fyfe (22) has the most votes of any ineligible player, followed by Tom Rockliff (20) and Brent Harvey (18).
Harvey, who currently sits sixteenth on the table for most career Brownlow votes, could move up as many as ten spaces, if he wins at least sixteen votes on the night. That would make him the player with the second most career votes to have never won the award itself, behind Leigh Matthews.
Gary Ablett will jump to at least the fourth most career Brownlow votes of all time should he poll at least sixteen votes on the night.
Carlton’s Chris Judd is third on the all-time table but unlikely to rise in position given the number of games he missed this year. If Ablett polls sixteen votes more than Judd, he’ll join him in third, or become outright third if he polls any more than that.
Of course, one can never be wholly certain what will happen on the night, and we have had the odd surprise over the years.
With that in mind, I have picked my ‘dark horse’ for the night, West Coast’s Matt Priddis. Arguably the competition’s best contested ball winner, Priddis is a proven vote getter and has had an excellent 2014 campaign.
I have him finishing third on 24 votes, just three behind the winner in Selwood. However, with plenty of room in the count for surprises, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Priddis getting up and winning what would be an unlikely yet still well-deserved Brownlow.
Last but not least, here are my predicted highest-pollers for each club:
Adelaide: Brodie Smith (17)
Brisbane: Tom Rockliff (20)
Carlton: Bryce Gibbs (13)
Collingwood: Scott Pendlebury (22)
Essendon: Dyson Heppell (15)
Fremantle: Nathan Fyfe (22)
Geelong: Joel Selwood (27)
Gold Coast: Gary Ablett (26)
Greater Western Sydney: Callan Ward (17)
Hawthorn: Jordan Lewis (15)
Melbourne: Nathan Jones (14)
North Melbourne: Brent Harvey (18)
Port Adelaide: Travis Boak (18)
Richmond: Trent Cotchin (18)
St Kilda: Nick Riewoldt (17)
Sydney: Josh P. Kennedy (23)
West Coast: Matt Priddis (24)
Western Bulldogs: Luke Dahlhaus (8)
The Brownlow Medal kicks off on Seven tonight with the Red Carpet Coverage beginning at 7.30PM (AEST), and the ceremony itself beginning at 8.15 (AEST).
Join me on The Roar for every vote live – and my limited understanding of fashion – from 7.30 PM (AEST).