The Caulfield and Melbourne Cups are on the horizon, so now is a good time to have a closer look at the nominal favourite for that first Tuesday in November.
The Offer is his name and he has possibly disappointed a few of his supporters at his two runs back, in the Dato Chan Nim Stakes at Moonee Valley, and the Underwood Stakes on Saturday.
But anybody writing him off just yet should be taking a closer look at his racetrack career to date.
Maybe we are too used to seeing Gai Waterhouse stayers hit the ground running? This horse is a little different to the norm from that stable.
For starters he has never won a race below 2200 metres, so why should we be surprised that he has finished 1.8 lengths and 3.5 lengths away in two Spring weight-for-age races at 1600 metres and 1800 metres respectively?
Overall he is 0-3/8 below that distance and 6/11 at 2200 metres and over. Since he has been with Gai he is yet to be beaten in four races at or beyond that trip, since being gelded in his second preparation for her.
Last Autumn he was beaten 5.5 lengths and 5 lengths at his first and second up runs in a restricted race and a quality listed event (with 54 kilograms) respectively, so his preparation this spring compares very favourably.
The strongest part of his last two runs has been the last 200 metres, so it would appear he is coming along very nicely to peak just at the right time.
In the autumn he improved significantly third up to win very easily over 2400 metres on a heavy track. He jumped 400 metres in distance to win that and then won his two subsequent starts at 2600 metres in The Chairman’s, and 3200m in the Sydney Cup to finish off a stellar campaign.
There is an argument to say that his best form is on rain affected tracks that he encountered there, but that might just be another reason to respect his performances thus far this spring. He hasn’t yet hit a track anywhere near as wet in Melbourne, but you know that if he does he will relish the opportunity. He did win by 4.5 lengths over 2400 metres under the tutelage of master trainer Aidan O’Brien though, so any thoughts he is just a wet tracker would be premature.
Gai Waterhouse has already signalled her discontent at the 56.5 kilograms allocated to him in the Melbourne Cup, so it would seem unlikely she would want him to incur a further penalty for the Melbourne Cup by winning that race. Given that factor it will be interesting to see what path is taken with him.
The Cox Plate might be off the agenda unless he wins the Turnbull at 2000 metres en route, because his form simply won’t warrant a start in that race. He might go to the Turnbull and then the Mackinnon without winning a race this Spring. If he did happen to start and win the Caulfield Cup it wouldn’t be the end of the world (far from it), and it would certainly mean he is right on cue for 3200 metres.
He did carry 57.5 kilograms to easily win the Chairmans handicap over 2600 metres during the spring, and lumped 59.5 kilograms in that easy win over 2600 metres as a three-year-old in Ireland, which proves he can handle big imposts.
It’s pretty hard to find a real flaw and Gai has managed to finish first and second in the past two Melbourne Cups with the former import Fiorente. There seems no reason whatsoever that she can’t repeat the dose with this horse, who has so much more to offer this spring.
And if regular jockey Tommy Berry happens to be aboard when it happens what a fantastic story that would be!
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