The Roar
The Roar

AFL
Advertisement

No O'Keefe gives Swans the edge

22nd September, 2014
Advertisement
Ryan O'Keefe was the best on ground during the 2012 AFL grand final, yet is a victim of Sydney's depth this year. (Slattery Images)
Expert
22nd September, 2014
156
2746 Reads

Sydney goes into the AFL grand final coming off a preliminary final belting of North Melbourne, and a fit and firing line-up that can’t find room for the likes of young gun Tom Mitchell and 2012 Norm Smith Medalist Ryan O’Keefe.

Hawthorn hobbles into the premiership decider having just staved off a hungry Port, and with injury concerns over some of their most important players.

Might it just be that simple when looking to decide the winner?

It might be, but then the Hawks have a history of just squeezing through in preliminary finals before going onto win the flag, going all the way back to 1987 when Gary Buckenara kicked truly after the siren thanks to a 15-metre penalty when the late Jim Stynes ran through the mark.

And the underdog has a good history of prevailing on football’s biggest stage, including when these two sides last met.

We know the Swans have the most miserly defence in the league, forever greater than the sum of its parts thanks to their ability to work in sync and absorb pressure like few before it. The same can be said of the Hawks, who have rarely had a settled back six this season, yet have continued to restrict opposition scores enough for their own forward line to post a winning one.

It’s easy to suggest that Sydney should be more potent up forward with marquee names like Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett surrounded by the likes of Adam Goodes and Sam Reid, and well supported by a host of midfielders that hit the scoreboard regularly. Yet Hawthorn have been far and away the most attacking force in the league, averaging two to three goals more than the Swans across the season.

Sydney’s two biggest names are the only ones to have scored more than 30 goals in 2014, while the Hawks have had three kick more than 50 – Jarryd Roughead with 70, Jack Gunston with 56 and Luke Bruest with 54.

Advertisement

Both teams enjoy utilising run off half-back more effectively than any other team, but the Swans bat just that bit deeper through the midfield, with a touch more versatility. Will it be enough to give them a decisive enough edge if they all play well? Probably so, but not definitively, because the Hawks are indeed a champion team.

Sydney will never lack for grunt through the middle while the likes of Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker, Ben McGlynn, Dan Hannebery and Kieren Jack are in the side, yet they probably have just that bit more polish when opposed to their Hawthorn counterparts.

But then the Swans don’t quite have anyone with Sam Mitchell’s instinctive dual-sided play and 360-degree vision, or Luke Hodge’s match-winning leadership.

Ryan O’Keefe and Brad Sewell have been September legends for their clubs over the years, performing similar roles to one another, and this is where I believe we can find the difference between the two clubs in looking for a winning edge.

It wasn’t apparent to most club followers or any outsiders that O’Keefe’s time had passed over summer, and he hasn’t played for the Swans since Round 4 accordingly, lucky to even get a few early season games.

However, it was clear to most, or should have been, that Sewell’s effectiveness as an AFL footballer was severely on the wane in the back half of 2013. He admittedly had a hot first term in the first final against the Swans last year but did little in the finals series after. Sewell has been a liability with ball in hand on too many occasions this year, either too slow to choose the first option or disposing poorly and putting a teammate under pressure.

One hasn’t been looked at in five months, while the other has been getting games right on the edge as the 24th best player, and is still wanted in the side by those who rate finals experience above all else. Sewell may still come into the Hawthorn line-up, either as a replacement for the injured Jordan Lewis, or just to add that toughness and experience.

Advertisement

You certainly know what you’re going to get from Sewell, and he’d be in contention for top spot when deciding an order for who would die for the team out there. It’s not the worst quality to take into a grand final, and I can see the allure.

But the fact that he’s in the conversation at the Hawks, while the similarly rated O’Keefe won’t even come up in selection, tells me that Sydney have an overall edge in depth and quality that is matched or even surpassed by excellence at the top end.

It should be enough to secure them another flag, or at least give them enough chances to do so (as Hawthorn well knows, the rest may depend on the accuracy of Buddy’s left boot!).

close