The Roar
The Roar

AFL
Advertisement

2014 AFL grand final: Preview

Roar Guru
23rd September, 2014
Advertisement
Roar Guru
23rd September, 2014
0
2667 Reads

After 198 home-and-away matches, 8 finals matches and a total of 1,188 Brownlow Medal votes distributed to 205 players, finally we are down to the biggest match of them all – the 2014 AFL grand final.

The Sydney Swans and Hawthorn have shared the last two premierships between them.

But this weekend will be more than just a grand final – it will be Buddy Franklin and the Swans against his former buddies at Hawthorn, and in addition, one team will join the Brisbane Lions and Geelong in being the joint-most successful side of this millennium, with three premierships since the year 2000.

The Swans and Hawks have been the two stand-out sides of 2014 and it’s hoped that the decider will be a classic, as it was two years ago when the Swans triumphed over the heavily-favoured Hawks by 10 points.

Let’s now preview the biggest game of the year in full detail.

Sydney Swans versus Hawthorn
Saturday, September 27
2:30pm
Melbourne Cricket Ground

In 2014
Round 8: Sydney Swans 15.17 (107) defeated Hawthorn 13.10 (88) at ANZ Stadium
Round 18: Hawthorn 15.14 (104) defeated Sydney Swans 13.16 (94) at the MCG

Last meeting in a final: Hawthorn 15.15 (105) defeated Sydney Swans 7.9 (51) at the MCG, first qualifying final, 2013

Advertisement

Last ten matches: Hawthorn 7-3

It’s finally here.

The Sydney Swans, minor premiers for the first time since 1996 and with a star-studded line-up, up against last year’s premiers, Hawthorn, who have proven that there is indeed life after Lance Franklin.

John Longmire’s men endured a slow start to the season, losing three of their first four matches, but that sparked a 12-match winning streak and, eventually, their best record in a regular season, finishing the minor rounds with 17 wins and 5 losses.

Their rather controversial acquisition of Buddy on a nine-year, multi-million dollar deal has been more than vindicated, with the man himself kicking 67 goals during the regular season and winning his third Coleman Medal.

He proved to be the difference as the Swans defeated Fremantle and North Melbourne in their two finals to reach the grand final. Against the Roos, Buddy was unstoppable, kicking five goals.

Come this Saturday, it will be either him winning his second consecutive premiership medallion or his former team, the Hawks, becoming the first team since the Brisbane Lions class of 2001-03 to successfully defend their premiership.

Advertisement

While he will be the x-factor as the Swans seek their sixth flag (and third since relocating to Sydney in 1982), he will also be public enemy number one among what is expected to be a pro-Hawthorn crowd.

The last time these two sides met at the MCG, Buddy was booed heavily as the Hawks won by 10 points. The earlier match this year saw Buddy kick 2.7 (19) as the Swans won by that margin at ANZ Stadium in Round 8.

The defending premiers have proven that they have moved on from his departure almost twelve months ago, tying with the Swans on 17 wins and 5 losses for the year but finishing second on percentage.

Their path to the grand final was illustrated by an impressive six-goal win over the Geelong Cats in the qualifying final, which was followed by the week off and a narrow three-point win over Port Adelaide in the preliminary final.

Only once before, in 1988-89, have the Hawks successfully defended their flag, and it was in the latter year when they and Geelong engaged in what many believe is the greatest grand final of all time.

While no team has been able to successfully retain the flag in the last decade, the Geelong Cats (premiers in 2007 and runners-up in 2008) and Collingwood (2010 and 2011) have come very close.

Perhaps this Hawthorn class can go one better than their rivals.

Advertisement

A Hawthorn premiership would also see them emulate the Cats in the sense that they won the flag in 2011 twelve months after Gary Ablett Jr left that club to captain the Gold Coast Suns.

What kind of reception can Buddy expect to get when he steps out onto the MCG? How many goals will he (and Kurt Tippett) kick? Can Ben McGlynn and Gary Rohan bury the demons of missing the Swans’ 2012 flag?

But the most important and most intriguing question of all – who, out of Buddy and the Hawks, will be standing on the premiership dais for the second consecutive year at roughly 5:15pm this Saturday afternoon?

Stats that matter

  • This will be Hawthorn’s 18th grand final, while for the Swans this will be their 16th (and 5th since relocating from South Melbourne in 1982).
  • This will be only their second grand final meeting, the previous one coming in 2012.
  • The Hawks will be seeking their 12th premiership, while the Swans will be seeking their 6th.
  • This will be the fourth consecutive year in which they have met at any stage in the finals, with all meetings coming at the MCG. Hawthorn leads 2-1 in this category, but the Swans won the match that mattered the most (2012 grand final).
  • Adam Goodes remains the only player from the Swans’ 2005 premiership; having also featured in their 2012 flag, he stands to become the club’s first-ever triple-premiership player.
  • By contrast, up to seven Hawthorn players can become triple-premiership players: Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge, Jarryd Roughead, Jordan Lewis, Cyril Rioli, Brad Sewell and Grant Birchall, who all played in both their 2008 and 2013 flags.
  • In the case of Lance Franklin, he can also become a triple-premiership player but with two different clubs. If the Swans win, he will become the first man since Tom Fitzmaurice in 1923-25 to play in consecutive premiership sides for two different clubs, and only the third ever.
  • Alastair Clarkson leads John Longmire 7-3 in the coaching head-to-head. They were teammates at North Melbourne.
  • Team one has not beaten team two in the grand final since 2007, when minor premiers Geelong defeated Port Adelaide by a record 119 points.
  • The team that has won the Friday preliminary final in the last two years has gone on to win the premiership, taking advantage of the day off.

The verdict
If the two regular-season meetings between the Swans and Hawks are anything to go by, then a real, tight tussle at the MCG can be expected.

The Swans overcame inaccurate kicking to win by 19 points at ANZ Stadium in Round 8, while they did lead by 23 points in their return match at the MCG in Round 18 before the Hawks came back to win.

Advertisement

If the Swans are to win, they will need Buddy and Tippett to fire, in addition to Josh Kennedy continuing the form which saw him win All-Australian selection and lead the club in the Brownlow Medal voting.

The Hawks will have more motivation to win – Luke Hodge will bring up his 250th game and will have the chance, along with six other Hawks, to become triple-premiership players for the brown and gold.

You get the feeling that it could go all the way down to the last play of the game before all is decided.

The Swans will be refreshed having had a 21-hour advantage on the Hawks as far as rest is concerned. They will also enter on the back of a 71-point devastation of North Melbourne in their preliminary final, and their form is hard to ignore.

Predictions
Match: Sydney Swans by six points
Norm Smith Medal: Josh Kennedy
Most goals: Lance Franklin
Most possessions: Josh Kennedy

close