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When the benefits outweigh the costs, it is deemed a sound investment. For Australian rugby, this means pick Will Skelton.
From my limited understanding, the cost benefit analysis (CBA) represents a basic approach towards estimating the strengths and weaknesses of alternatives, to help in a decision.
If Ewen McKenzie undertook this strategy, Skelton would currently be in South Africa.
Last Saturday afternoon the crowd at Leichardt Oval were treated to a high-quality, free-flowing game of rugby, topped up with sun, beer and grass to sit on. It was awesome.
But what was Will Skelton doing there?
The situation resembled a gathering of pubescent boys sitting around playing Mario Kart, then realising Natalie Portman is sitting there asking for the controller.
One would assume someone of their quality is unlikely to graze your pastures and is usually required elsewhere.
Don’t we have a national tour on somewhere on at the moment? Are all the best players being rested? How is Skelton not included in this squad? A brief CBA is needed here.
According to our national coach, his costs outweigh his benefits. Skelton is apparently “too young and needs more game time”. Currently, youth in our squad takes the form of our captain and best player – hardly a cost.
McKenzie insists further that he can’t jump in the lineout.
Did not jumping pose a problem for Skelton at the Waratahs? By benching Bernard Foley, failing to inject grunt in the second row, and now excluding Skelton, McKenzie is messing around with all the things that made the Waratahs’ season so successful.
Jesse Mogg was also at Leichardt Oval on Saturday. McKenzie feels his costs outweigh his benefits and he would be correct. Mogg scored a brilliant intercept try, showed pace in attack, and kicked with impressive range (all benefits). Yet sporadic defence and skills under the high ball detracted from his over all performance (costs).
To regain the faith of national selectors, he needs to show more consistency over time.
I would argue the opposite for Skelton. Yes, he received a yellow card from respected referee James Lecke, and his performance was far from polished. He can improve, but he is ready.
He scored a solid try, made countless hit-ups and defended with power. He doesn’t just stop runners, his physical presence intimidates the whole attacking line.
Then there is his ability to offload. It is becoming increasingly difficult in modern rugby to find cracks in effective defensive systems. The offload is one of the few undervalued in this area. Executing offloads effectively has proved very useful for modern teams (Waratahs) and modern players (Sonny Bill Williams).
This is the single biggest attribute Skelton brings. He has not only the size and strength to go forward in contact, but the skill to present the ball to supporting runners either side of him. This is incredibly valuable in breaking the line.
At a similar time last year, I was fortunate enough to be one of two Australian supporters watching the Waratahs take on Argentina in Salta – the same ground Australia will do battle with Los Pumas in two weeks.
While the Waratahs got done that evening, one of many positives emerged with clarity (despite all the red wine and cheering) – a raw and somewhat unknown Skelton presented the opportunity for a game-breaking offload with every hit up he made, and he made many.
As Skelton barged over for his try on Saturday at Leichardt, the crowd clapped and cheered, appreciating the man’s efforts and his presence. His supposed weakness at the lineout and lack of age faded into insignificance.
At national level, Skelton is the perfect impact player to come off the bench and provide a game breaking hit-up, tackle or offload.
To beat the best teams in the world, it is often insufficient to simply match them. In some areas, you need to actually be better. Will Skelton can provide this point of difference.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.