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Shane Watson’s latest injury could well result in either a Test debut for Mitch Marsh or the revival of Ben Hilfenhaus’ international career.
Watson this week was ruled out of the two-Test tour of the United Arab Emirates against Pakistan starting next month, after injuring his right calf.
A problem with the same calf kept the physically fragile all-rounder out of the first two Tests of Australia’s last series, in South Africa in February.
Watson had been hoping to make a comeback in the UAE after also missing the recent Zimbabwe triangular ODI series due to an ankle injury.
But the re-injuring of his calf means he will now have to wait until the Australian summer, and opened the door for the two men challenging for his position in the Test side – Mitch Marsh and Glenn Maxwell.
Chairman of selectors Rod Marsh said Watson will still be a key element of Australia’s planning for the home summer. That could quickly change though should either Marsh or Maxwell excel against Pakistan.
At 33 years old and with a battered body, Watson’s time as a Test cricketer is fast approaching an end. For years he managed to retain his place in the Test line-up through scores of injuries because the selectors were vehement in their belief that they needed an all-rounder.
Previously, there was no obvious candidate who could both bat in the top six and contribute better than part-time overs.
Now the selectors believe they have two such players in Marsh and Maxwell. Multi-skilled Tasmanian James Faulkner is also highly rated.
Ironically, Watson’s Test form is better than it has been since the golden days of 2009 and 2010. His past seven Tests have reaped 612 runs at 47, including two of the four centuries he has recorded across a 52-match career.
Along with the emergence of Marsh, Maxwell and Faulkner, two other factors could work against Watson.
Firstly, the Australian think tank has placed increased importance on stability and continuity within the Test side.
They famously selected the same XI for all five Tests of the last Ashes, despite George Bailey’s struggles batting at six and Ryan Harris’ body appearing to be on the brink of malfunction.
Watson challenges this approach because he continues to be a match-to-match proposition. Since making his Test debut almost 10 years ago, the burly cricketer has missed dozens of matches through injury.
Should one of Marsh or Maxwell acquit themselves well against Pakistan, the Australian selectors may decide that they can no longer take the risk of fielding the injury-prone all-rounder.
The second factor which could help to end Watson’s career is the ageing nature of Australia’s side and the impending generational change.
Seven members of their core team from last summer – Watson, Brad Haddin, Chris Rogers, Ryan Harris, Mitchell Johnson, Peter Siddle, and Michael Clarke – are well into their 30s and are not guaranteed to be playing Test cricket in 18 months’ time.
Australia have blundered through transitional periods in the past – most obviously in the wake of the retirements of Ricky Ponting and Mike Hussey, when they soon went nine consecutive Tests without a win.
Given that Johnson, Clarke, Harris, Haddin and Rogers remain key players, the selectors could view moving on from Watson as the first step towards refreshing the veteran-heavy line-up.
First, of course, someone has to demand his spot. Which one of Marsh or Maxwell is selected in Watson’s place will likely depend on the conditions.
The pitch at Abu Dhabi, the venue for the second Test, is expected to be spin friendly. However, uncertainty surrounds the character of the deck for the opening match at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium.
While banned Pakistan spinner Saeed Ajmal has dominated at that ground in the past, it offers far more assistance to the quicks than the Abu Dhabi deck. In the last Test played there, both Pakistan and Sri Lanka fielded three specialist quicks and together those pacemen combined to take 21 of the 31 wickets which fell in the match.
Rod Marsh said recently there was a chance the Dubai pitch could be “quick and bouncy”.
“The Australian curator there, Tony Hemming, he likes to see the ball fly,” Marsh said. “But whether or not he has to hand that pitch over to a Pakistani curator – in the past he’s had to hand over two weeks before – whether or not he has to do it this time I’m not sure. If Tony had his way it would be a very fast and bouncy pitch. It’s got that capability.”
With these conditions in mind, Australia drafted in veteran swing bowler Ben Hilfenhaus to replace Watson in the squad. Hilfenhaus is the fourth frontline quick alongside Johnson, Siddle and young left-armer Mitchell Starc.
It appears the tourists will seriously consider fielding three specialist pacemen if the Dubai pitch looks suitable. Such a scenario would boost the chances of Maxwell playing as he would offer a second spin option.
Alternatively, if the pitch looks set to turn the selectors will probably pick two specialist tweakers, leaving Maxwell surplus to requirements and making Marsh an attractive proposition as the third seamer.
It would be a significant challenge for either young all-rounder. Maxwell is wonderfully gifted but is yet to display the temperament required for success at Test level. Marsh, meanwhile, owns a first-class batting average of 28.51 in spite of his recent double century for Australia A against India A.
Both players have massive scope for development. Watson will have to hope that improvement doesn’t come about in the UAE or his Test career could be over.