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Now that we’re down to the final two teams contesting the grand final, predicting who will win has become a lot easier – and not just because there are now only two teams left.
In sport, there are opinions, damned opinions, and then there are statistics. And statistics of a special kind suggest Sydney is very likely to win the 2014 grand final, and by a large margin.
Forget the home-and-away season, forget who has kicked the most goals throughout the season, inside 50s, Brownlow votes, scoring accuracy, who played who, and where who played who.
The critical statistics are to be found solely in the finals.
Of course, the home-and-away season is not irrelevant. After all, it’s a team’s performance during the season that determines whether they make the finals or not, and how high up the ladder. Still, the best way to determine who will win the grand final is to analyse the performances of the two contesting teams during the finals series.
Since 1991, reaching the grand final has meant that a team plays in at least two finals, sometimes three. For the statistician, this is a godsend, because it means more comparisons and numbers to play around with.
And, it is usually the team that has the better average points for-and-against differential, when compared against their rival, that wins the premiership.
Here is the points for-and-against table for Hawthorn and Fremantle in 2013 for the finals preceding the grand final.
Hawthorn
1. Qualifying final: Hawthorn 105 v Sydney 51
2. Preliminary final: Hawthorn 102 v Geelong 97
Total points for two finals: 207 v 148
Average points over two finals: 104 v 74
Fremantle
1. Qualifying final: Fremantle 87 v Geelong 72
2. Preliminary final: Fremantle 99 v Sydney 74
Total points for two finals: 186 v 146
Average points over two finals: 93 v 73
Hawthorn’s average points-for was 11 better (104 v 74) than Fremantle, and their average points-against was 1 point worse (74 v 73), for a net difference of 10 points in favour of Hawthorn.
Hawthorn was statistically the better team in the finals, and won the grand final by 15 points.
Since 1991, the team with the better net difference has won the premiership on 17 occasions (74 per cent) and, since 2000 when the current finals system was put in place, on 12 occasions (86 per cent).
Since 2000, the two teams that have bucked the trend and won with the worse net difference than their opponent are Port Adelaide (2004 against Brisbane, net difference of -9 points) and Brisbane (2003 against Collingwood, net difference -6 points).
Here is the premiers listing since 1991, with their net points difference in the finals matches preceding the grand final, compared to their opponents:
+56 – Essendon 2000 (defeated Melbourne in the grand final by 60 points)
+52 – North Melbourne 1999 (defeated Carlton by 39 points)
+46 – North Melbourne 1996 (defeated Sydney by 43 points)
+43 – Brisbane 2002 (defeated Collingwood by 9 points)
+38 – Collingwood 2010 (defeated St Kilda by 56 points, after a drawn grand final)
+28 – Geelong 2011 (defeated Collingwood by 38 points)
+26 – Geelong 2009 (defeated St Kilda by 12 points)
+19 – West Coast 1994 (defeated Geelong by 80 points)
+11 – Geelong 2007 (defeated Port Adelaide by 119 points)
+11 – Brisbane 2001 (defeated Essendon by 26 points)
+10 – Hawthorn 2013 (defeated Fremantle by 15 points)
+10 – West Coast 2006 (defeated Sydney by 1 point)
+9 – Hawthorn 2008 (defeated Geelong by 26 points)
+6 – Sydney 2012 (defeated Hawthorn by 10 points)
+4 – Essendon 1993 (defeated Carlton by 44 points)
+3 – Hawthorn 1991 (defeated West Coast by 53 points)
0 – Sydney 2005 (defeated West Coast by 4 points)
-3 – West Coast 1992 (defeated Geelong by 28 points)
-6 – Brisbane 2003 (defeated Collingwood by 50 points)
-9 – Port Adelaide 2004 (defeated Brisbane by 40 points)
-10 – Adelaide 1998 (defeated North Melbourne by 35 points)
-24 – Adelaide 1997 (defeated St Kilda by 31 points)
-48 – Carlton 1995 (defeated Geelong by 61 points)
There are two anomalies in this list, and both occurred prior to 2000, when the current finals system was installed: Carlton in 1995, with a worse differential of 48 points (defeated Geelong by 61 points); and Adelaide in 1997, with a worse differential of 24 points (defeated St Kilda by 31 points).
Statisticians like to compare consistent results, and the finals system between 1994 and 1999, and the one between 1991 and 1993 (a final six) skew these overall results slightly, but the pattern from 2000 is very clear. Twelve of the premiers had a better net points differential, so that’s 86 per cent clear.
The table for 2014
Sydney
1. Qualifying final: Sydney 93 v Fremantle 69
2. Preliminary final: Sydney 136 v North Melbourne 65
Total points for two finals: 229 v 134
Average points over two finals: 115 v 67
Hawthorn
1. Qualifying final: Hawthorn 104 v Geelong 68
2. Preliminary final: Hawthorn 97 v Port Adelaide 94
Total points for two finals: 201 v 162
Average points over two finals: 101 v 81
Sydney’s average points-for is 14 points higher than Hawthorn (115 v 101), and their average points-against is 14 points lower (67 v 81), for a net difference of 28 points in favour of Sydney.
Over the past 24 seasons, this is the seventh best result for a team going into the grand final, and only one team has lost from this position – Geelong in 1995, with a net difference in their favour of 48 points. Again, this was under the previous final-eight system, and the team to lose from the next most favourable position was Brisbane in 2004 (net difference of 9 points in their favour).
To further analyse these statistics, only one team since 2000 with a worse points-for differential of 14 or more has won the grand final (Sydney in 2012, with a 39 points differential). Since 2000, no team with a worse points-against differential of 14 or more has won the grand final.
For Hawthorn to win on Saturday, they will have to reverse a trend that has been consistent since 2000, and a statistic that has only been broken once since 1991, by Carlton in 1995, albeit under a slightly different finals system.
So while the statistics are strong for Sydney, this is never a guarantee. But there are other factors, aside from statistics.
Finals, just like politics, is all about the momentum. Sydney put in a consummate performance on Friday night against North Melbourne – clean, clear and precise for the entire four quarters.
Hawthorn are an excellent team, but they were out on their feet in the final quarter against Port Adelaide. To let in the final four goals and almost lose a preliminary final in the final four minutes of the match does not bode well for a grand final. It was shades of Geelong in 2008 against Western Bulldogs, or Collingwood in 2011 against Hawthorn in their respective preliminaries.
This is the reverse of Hawthorn in 2013 when, after being 20 points down against Geelong in the preliminary final, they managed to win by 5. They carried that momentum into the grand final.
But in 2014, the momentum is with Sydney.
There is also the residual sideshow of whether Cyril Rioli will play in the grand final, after 65 minutes in a VFL game and being absent from the top league for three months. Surely, this must be part of the pre-match mind games, because no coach in their right mind would consider such a proposition. Jordan Lewis is injured and uncertain to make the final team.
The Hawthorn team is slightly unsettled compared to the Swans, but will perform admirably.
However, the stats are in and the results suggest a very likely Swans victory on Saturday. It’s just a question of how the relative instability of Hawthorn affects the final margin.
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