The lights will be flicked on at Moonee Valley this Friday night and to kick off the night racing season, a bumper program has been assembled.
The field is highlighted by the $450,000 Group l City Jeep A.J. Moir Stakes (1200m). Lankan Rupee is looking to bounce back from his first up shock loss in the McEwen Stakes (1000m) here a few weeks ago, and will go around as the top pick in betting, but he’ll face some serious horse flesh, including Buffering, Rebel Dane, and his conqueror in the McEwen, Angelic Light.
So, first of all, what an absolute shambles that there is only a field of five. This is hugely embarrassing for Victorian racing. In saying that, is it possible to take on Lankan Rupee considering he has only four rivals?
I think so, and that is exactly what I’m doing here in my selections. I think the forgotten sprinter is Buffering. Yes, it’s been nearly ten months since his last win, but in four runs during the Autumn, he was very good I thought without winning, placing three times at Group l level.
A recent jumpout back home in Queensland looked very sharp and we know he is near bullet proof when produced fresh. Loves the Valley and will fight like his life depends on it, so I give him a serious chance in this.
Lankan Rupee does go in, although I was disappointed with his first up run. Sure, Froggy may have pushed the button a tad earlier than what he probably should have, but he wasn’t up against much it has to be said, and for a horse rated as the worlds best sprinter, he should have put them away.
Can’t go past what he did in the Autumn, that was simply world class. But he needs to win here for him to hold the tag as the worlds best sprinter.
The roughie to include at good odds is Unpretentious. He was the real eye catcher in the McEwen behind Angelic Light.
He just got run off his legs by a hot speed set by Eloping and lost all winning hope after about 200m, but his closing sectionals were excellent, albeit under a hold from Williams given he never saw daylight. Small field means he won’t be far away and we know he has a booming finish on him.
Selections
Buffering (1) on top, to beat Lankan Rupee (2), Unpretentious (4) and Rebel Dane (3).
Earlier in the night, the mares will do battle in the Stocks Stakes (1600m), and it looks to be a race in two between Commanding Jewel and Dear Demi.
I am going for the latter in what should be a cracking contest and almost the highlight of the evening. She has come back as good as she ever has, and that has been evident in her two runs this time – flashing home for fifth to Gregers at Caulfield before going to the Let’s Elope and just failing to pick up Commanding Jewel.
Extra distance is right up her alley and if comes down to a fight, I’d rather be on Dear Demi than Commanding Jewel.
Commanding Jewel has also come back in ripping order. She was very good off a long break when third to Gregers, then sat wide with no cover in the Let’s Elope yet found plenty under Oliver to win narrowly over Dear Demi.
She has the numbers on the board at the track and this spring, my only concern is how much did that hard run at Flemington take out of her? If she has done well since then, she’ll go very close.
Solicit was entitled to do a touch more I thought when seventh to Commanding Jewel in the Let’s Elope, but she was first up and was near the worst part of the track, so there could have been excuses for her not fighting as well as we know she can.
Maps very well again here, and with no Gregers, she should get a great time in front, and here at the Valley, that will mean she will take some beating.
Selections
I’ll be very surprised if these three don’t fill the trifecta. Dear Demi (1) ahead of Commanding Jewel (2) and Solicit (7). Next best is Epingle (3).
The highlight of the night could possibly be the clash between Almalad and Chvalry in the Bill Stutt Stakes (1600m).
I’m putting the Sydney gelding Almalad on top, however. Many were quick to pot him after his first up failure in the Run To The Rose, but he bounced back to good form with a fighting fourth to Hallowed Crown in the Golden Rose, near the inside, which was the inferior ground.
Based on how he toughed it out there, I have no doubt in my mind Gai is setting him for the Cox Plate. This race will be a good platform to that race instead of the Caulfield Guineas, but given there doesn’t appear to be much early speed on, Tommy can ping to the front and do whatever he likes in front. And we know in front when the rail is out here, that is a recipe for success.
There was nothing wrong with the second up failure of Chivalry at Caulfield, apart from the fact he was a well backed top pick in betting. He was there to win the race 300m out, but hearing both Kav and Bossy after the race, they said that the horse had an easy time on the training track hence why he didn’t go on with it and beat Merion.
When I say didn’t go on with it, he only got beat by the bob of the head. Sizzled in trackwork on Tuesday at Flemington and is ready to go for this.
Zebulon was clearly the best of the closers in that Flemington race Chivalry contested, sitting out the back before peeling wide and really savaging the line with purpose.
Not sure how he will handle the Valley given he is a big strider, but he looks to have immense talent and has come on big time in the freshen up from the Winter.
Selections
Almalad (1) on top in what should be a cracking race, over Chivalry (3), Zebulon (6) and Zululand (2).
Cox Plate contender The Cleaner will tune up for the weight-for-age championship of the world when he lines up in the JRA Cup (2040m). He just wins here in my opinion. Yes, the on pace bias may have flattered him in his Dato Tan Chin Nam win, but the fact he is beat Group l company and will go around as a leading chance in the Cox Plate.
There is no early speed here apart from him, so he should get that part in his favour, loves racing at this distance range and just gets in so well at the weights. Wide barrier doesn’t worry me, he’ll ping over, lead and win.
Looking for a big run from Signoff. Had no luck when resuming at Caulfield behind Henwood, then went to Flemintgon and just looked very dour and one paced when third to Brambles and Big Memory.
Definitely looking for 2000m and beyond, which he gets here, minimum weight, stack of upside and a soft gate. If there is to be an upset, it’ll come courtesy of this bloke.
One to include in exotics is the kiwi visitor and 2011 Victoria Derby winner Sangster. He has had two runs back home in New Zealand, both over unsuitable distances. I will say but there was merit in his last start effort at Awapuni.
The form guide will say 12/16, beaten eight lengths, but he had no luck on the home turn and got badly blocked behind runners, and for a horse who needs to build momentum, it ruined all chance. Not saying he would have won, but he would have finished closer.
Bowman jumps back on now, drawn the paint and his two previous runs here have been fantastic.
Selections
Clearly The Cleaner (1) on top, to beat Signoff (11), Sangster (3) and the old gem Precedence (2).
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