Race 7 at Caulfield on Sunday sees the 2014 running of the Sir Rupert Clarke stakes, a race that throws up some amazing historical precedents that no other race on the Australian calendar can match.
For that reason it is my favourite race of the spring. It has been quite easy to predict in recent times. It has probably now eclipsed the Stradbroke Handicap as the premier 1400-metre handicap in this country.
A look at this year’s field only franks that opinion, and the fact we have opened with a $6.50 favourite tells us some thoughtful analysis is required to find a possible winner. But the historical resources available can, at the very least reduce the burden somewhat.
I’m utilising 23 years of data and remarkably 14 winners in that time have been an entire (a horse or colt, not a gelding). That factor alone accounts for 60 per cent of winners, and over half of those (8) have been four years of age. There have been 4 three-year-old Colts, and 2 five-year-olds complete the set.
We have no entires representing either of those age groups this year, but amazingly have 6 very in form four-year-olds to analyse. That isn’t what I was hoping to see and it is an unusual circumstance.
The other factor that has played a major outcome in this race is the lead up race. The best is clearly the Bobbie Lewis Quality run down the straight at Flemington, two weeks prior. It has provided nine of the past 23 winners, including five of the last seven.
Interestingly only one of those actually won the Bobbie Lewis (Bon Hoffa in 2007), though every winner of the Sir Rupert Clarke bar one has managed to finish in the first five home in that race. Four of the last five Bobbie Lewis horses that went on to win this have been Entires, and three of those have been four year olds.
This year we have no entire representation out of that race but the five year old gelding Sistine Demon (5th) and prolific winner Akavoroun (6th) can certainly make their presence felt here.
Unfortunately Mares do only have an average record in the race with only four winners in the past 23 runnings, and none have come out of the Bobbie Lewis. Three came via the Let’s Elope Stakes which gives the supporters of Gig something to hang on to.
Barriers have played little consequence in the outcome of this race so I think it is best to not factor it in. Both Rebel Dane last year (Barrier 14) and Moment Of Change in 2012 (barrier 15) are strong recent examples that suggest that if you are good enough you can win from out wide.
The weight range between 49kg-55.5kg has provided 19 of the past 23 winners, and all but one runner this year falls into that category (Dissident).
The likelihood of a 4year-oldEntire winning seems very high again, but can we find the most likely victor among them?
Dissident
His weight is a concern against his fellow four-year-olds, some of whom were very competitive against him in the Autumn at level weights. He now has to give them 6kg and also has to contend with coming back in distance.
Against that he has come back a much better horse and comes off two stellar WFA wins with .5kg less. A good draw helps.
Atlante
Really does look a solid chance given he meets Trust In A Gust 2.5 kg better for beating him last start.
The latter was a bit unlucky though and has won since. I’m concerned about the second up form of this horse given he has been very poor given that scenario in his last two preparations.
Now with Hawkes stable though and wet track first up last campaign might have flattened him.
Cluster
Like Dissident he is another that seems to have improved this preparation and really should have won all of his four starts.
He has an outstanding turn of foot that should suit around Caulfield and interesting that at his first run in Melbourne last Spring he got very close to beating home the eventual Cox Plate winner Shamus Award at Moonee Valley, behind Divine Calling.
He has changes stables this preparation to the Snowden camp and despite the wide barrier here he looks very hard to beat.
Bull Point
Bull Point was just touched off by Dissident last start at this distance but didn’t shirk the task. He lacks the turn of foot that horse has but could turn the tables here given he was only second up last time whereas Cluster had had four runs back.
He has raced well in Melbourne before and new trainer Chris Waller (was with Gai Waterhouse) will more than likely have him primed third up for this.
It might pay to remember what a gobsmacking run this horse produced in the Golden Rose last Autumn. Had he jumped with them there he would almost certainly have accounted for both Zoustar and Dissident in that race.
Must be a big hope in this, but he needs to recity a poor winning strike rate to do so.
Late Charge
Late Charge is in the Wendy Kelly stable that provided the 2007 winner of this race in Bon Hoffa who was also a four-year-old entire. Bon Hoffa had won the Group 3 Bobbie Lewis en route though and this four-year-old faces a much stiffer task in this than at his last start.
Just not quite sure he is up to beating the other four-year-olds in this. For instance, he was 2.5L off Cluster in the Bill Stutt Stakes last Spring and gets no weight relief here. He is in good form though and seems to be improving.
Trust in a Gust
This horse is one of the most honest horses in training and should be 3/3 this preparation.
He meets Atlante 2.5kg worse off for an unlucky defeat second up, but met the third placegetter Lucky Hussler on similar terms last week, and put a 2.5L margin between himself and that horse.
That may have been the case the start prior, had he got an economical run, so we can surmise that he probably would have beaten Atlante.
He comes into this off a 7-day backup, but it’s hard to see him taking too much harm from a soft win last week, and he has won emphatically off a 10-day break in the past. He seems to have gone to a new level this preparation, and he needed to, if he was going to win a race of this calibre. He has won his last two races at this track and looks a definite winning chance.
It is very hard to separate these six but I might do so by selecting the one that might not have peaked yet in Bull Point. The vast majority of the 4yo’s that have won this race, have not won at their previous start and Chris Waller is a master at getting his Sydney horses to win at their first start in Melbourne (Rangirangdoo, Zoustar, Who Shot The Barman etc).
My top four is in this order, but really at is just an educated guess, and remember this is a preview based purely on historical data.
1 Bull Point
2 Cluster
3 Trust in a Gust
4 Dissident
Have you ever tried your skills in a Racing daily fantasy competition? Put your best picks to the test for one day and see if you can scoop the pot with Draftstars. Looking for great odds on racing and sport? PlayUp is your best bet. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
Without a Fight completed the rare Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double on Tuesday as star jockey Mark Zahra went back-to-back in the big one after…
The race that stops the nation is upon us again. Every horse in the Melbourne Cup has reasons they can win, and reasons they…
Those who want to have a really big collect on Australia’s greatest race, without risking too much, have to look at the exotic bets.
While most of the attention is on Ciaron Maher and David Eustace's Gold Trip, there's no reason why stablemate Future History cannot upstage him.
Champion jockey Damien Oliver is quietly confident his Melbourne Cup mount Alenquer will be passed fit to give him a farewell ride in the…
Melbourne Cup day is here again, and it’s never anything less than exciting. The Cup itself will of course be full of drama and…
