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The expectation of victory is not a guarantor of victory

Roar Guru
30th September, 2014
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Steve Hansen will be as hungry as ever for victory.
Roar Guru
30th September, 2014
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1639 Reads

Sir Graham Henry remarked that a loss for New Zealand leading up to the World Cup would be ideal. There is a theory that you learn more from your losses than your victories. To me, this is a fallacy.

The overwhelming feeling you get from losing is the stinging burn of defeat in the pit of your stomach.

This is really what Henry was alluding to. You do not necessarily learn rugby lessons from losing.

Look at Wales against the SANZAR nations. When you review the game, there is not a moment of enlightenment where the players smile and say to one another, ‘That’s where it all went wrong!’

Believe it or not, the winning side is also looking at where things went wrong and areas on which they can improve.

Motivation is what you get from losing. The more you are accustomed to winning, the more driven you become to recapture that winning feeling. I read a comment on The Roar this week that New Zealand play best when the pressure is off. I disagree. New Zealand play best when they feel that their legacy is under threat.

The evidence is there. England’s resounding victory in 2012 gave rise to the first ever unbeaten year in the professional era. After Sydney this year, Ewen McKenzie implored New Zealand to bring their A game. After their limp effort the previous week, they duly obliged.

Last year the yellow card debacle saw South Africa gunning for revenge. They were confident of victory, and rightfully so, as they had markedly improved from the previous year and Ellis Park had proven a happy hunting ground against New Zealand. They did bring their A game but unfortunately so did their opponents.

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Indeed, you can trace the legacy of Steve Hansen’s squad to 2009 when Henry was still in charge. That year saw three defeats by South Africa and one by France. Granted, rugby lessons were learned and New Zealand gave in to reason. Henry and his wise men found a back three capable of claiming the high ball, abandoned their stubborn insistence on keeping the ball-in-hand inside their own half and sought to improve their lineout.

Since that annus horribilis, New Zealand have been undefeated at home. It is significant to note that they lost away to South Africa and Australia in 2011. The last ever Tri Nations crown was claimed by Australia but you could argue that loss drove New Zealand to their compelling victory in the World Cup semi-final.

Where New Zealand seem to falter is when they are expected to win. Australia has been a thorn in New Zealand’s side when it comes to matches when consecutive victories are at stake. Much has been written about New Zealand’s performances at World Cups.

When you start claiming New Zealand are over the hill and are on the slide, you awaken an angry beast that burns with desire to prove itself. When you start claiming New Zealand are a step ahead of the rest and unbeatable, you set them up for failure.

You could well argue, then, that this weekend is the ideal moment to drop a game if you had to choose one. Maybe rest a few players and give others more game time. Dane Coles flying out to Johannesburg suggests that Hansen does not buy into this way of thinking. There is doubt over the selections of Brodie Retallick and Malakai Fekitoa for differing reasons, but I expect Hansen to put out his best possible side.

Hansen had responded to Henry’s comments knowing all too well from where his friend was coming. Yet I believe Hansen is trying to tweak the All Blacks’ culture slightly. Much was made in the media of the whiteboard scrawling before the Twickenham match last year, but I think what Hansen is trying to do is instil in the players a winning culture regardless of the context of the upcoming match.

I have a theory. New Zealand finds itself invariably in a relatively easy World Cup pool. They are the only unbeaten team in pool play. However, as a result they arrive at the knockout games to find opponents all too aware of the challenges ahead.

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Typically, the All Blacks are made favourites and are expected to advance to the next stage. Their opponents know only their best will be good enough to topple New Zealand and we all know the rest.

In a way, the following matches in South Africa and Australia are ideal preparation for that scenario. New Zealand are expected to win by nature of the fact they have already won the Rugby Championship and have yet to lose.

It does not matter how remarkable that achievement is or how daunting the task is at Ellis Park. That’s the expectation. It does not equally matter that South Africa and Australia are both desperate to claim victory over their arch rivals. What has happened before is of little relevance to them. Sound familiar?

Henry might give a wry smile if South Africa give their coach his first highly prized New Zealand scalp. He might resort to his customary frown if Australia do the same, but would still feel New Zealand have been done a favour in terms of motivation to regain respect the following year.

Hansen, on the other hand I feel, would inwardly be devastated. To me, in a rugby sense, dead rubber is the dirtiest combination in the English language. Hansen wants his players to win in any situation, whether they’re written off or raging favourites.

The All Blacks are set impossibly high standards. To win at Ellis Park with nothing to play for? Quite the opposite. There is more at stake from a New Zealand perspective, which Hansen would be willing to admit.

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