One of the significant races in terms of the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup landscape is the $500,000 Group l Turnbull Stakes (2000m) and the time-honoured major highlights racing from Flemintgon this Saturday.
Lucia Valentina, Silent Achiever and Puissance De Lune are at the top of the betting, closely followed by Crackerjack King and Happy Trails.
Three $200,000 Group 2s support the big one, including the TAB Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m), the Gilgai Stakes (1200m), and the Blazer Stakes (1400m).
The Turnbull shapes to be an absolute beauty, with a capacity field assembled.
I’m putting Happy Trails on top. His first two runs back from a break were just fair, but then he really bounced back to his best with an unexpected narrow second in the Underwood Stakes (1800m) to Foreteller. Connections were expecting him to need that run to tune up for this and then the Cox Plate, but he has exceeded expectations and is right on track for this and the big dance at the Valley. He won the race last year, and is going much better than what he was 12 months, and beat a stronger field.
Been very impressed with the way Puissance De Lune has gone about his business this Spring. Loved the way he toughed it out in the Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m), where he took a little while to wind up, but was very good late and was strong through the line, telling me that 2000m is ideal. If the rain came, he’d be on top, but nonetheless, he’ll be very hard to beat.
It’s starting to get close to D-Day for The Offer. First-up run in the Dato was very good, then in the Underwood he was good very late after coming off the bit a fair way from home. Getting out to a trip now, bigger track, fitter and both Gai Waterhouse and Tommy Berry have been bullish the past week about this horse’s chances come Saturday.
Selections
Happy Trails (2), to beat Puissance De Lune (8), The Offer (5) and Lucia Valentina (16).
As I said in my review of the last Flemington meeting on The Roar a couple of weeks back, I was amazed by the win of Chatauqua in the Bobbie Lewis and there is no reason to jump off in the Gilgai.
There is a Group l in him, and with Lankan Rupee not being at his best, the door is open for the next up and coming sprinting superstar -enter Chatauqua. A repeat of his Bobbie Lewis run here and he wins again, even with the weight rise.
If the top tip is off his game, then the one to beat is Temple Of Boom. He was the best of the beaten brigade in the Bobbie Lewis, running second, beaten a comfortable 2.5 lengths. The keys in his favour is that he is a proven straight-track horse, fitter and gets a 6kg weight pull on the top tip, so he certainly comes into consideration for exotics, and is the logical quinella horse.
Star Kiwi mare Bounding makes her Melbourne debut for Ken Kelso after a fabulous Autumn, which saw her win two from two in New Zealand, both at Group l level, before coming to Sydney for the Championships and running a narrow second to Sidestep in the Royal Sovereign (1200m).
The form out of that race has been franked thanks to the likes of In Cahoots, Turquoise King and Chatauqua, who was three lengths behind her there, and meets her at the same weights here. She was due to make her return a couple of weeks back home, but had an elevated temperature and instead resumes here. Her exhibition gallop last week was outstanding and she is certainly a mare who shouldn’t be treated lightly.
Selections
Chatauqua (4) clearly on top, ahead of Temple Of Boom (5), massive watch on Bounding (11), then Flamberge (3).
Will we see the Thousand Guineas winner in the Edward Manifold? I don’t think so, but the race does look to be a good one from a betting perspective.
Fontein Ruby for me here. She strung together two impressive wins at Sportingbet Park and here, then was freshened up and ran a couple of weeks back at Caulfield when a closing fifth to Thinking Of You, who will go around as a leading contender in the Flight Stakes at Randwick, so the form does read well for this, and certainly gives the impression she’ll relish the step up to 1600m. Hard to beat.
Unbeaten filly Maastricht steps up to city level for Team Hawkes after two impressive wins at the provincials, firstly on a bog track at Echuca, then went to Bendigo and was very impressive there against the older horses, running faster time than the better class horses on the same program, and that’s always a good measuring stick. Big class rise, but Team Hawkes know when to push the button.
Royal Ocean comes back to Melbourne after winning the Morphettville Guineas, beating the highly touted Peter Moody filly Betsy in a great finish. She ran the mile out strongly there and was good through the line, so she is one of only a few who are proven at this distance, as well as being rock-hard fit.
Also keep an eye on Little Hottie for Mick Kent. She looked high class when winning on debut recently at Kyneton and can certainly measure up.
Selections
Fontein Ruby (2) in an open race, over Maastricht (9), Royal Ocean (5) and Little Hottie (13), who could be a star.
My best bet comes in the Blazer Stakes, courtesy of Politeness. Loved the way she trialled prior to her first up run in the How Now, where she was wide all the way yet stuck it out strongly and was very good late when a narrow fourth to Girl Guide. Up to 1400m, fitter, good record second up, and has that lethal turn of foot to really put these away if she is ridden with cover and saved for the final 250m. If that eventuates, she wins.
Suavito won first-up at Caulfield, then ran at that track again and looked the winner, only to be nabbed right on the peg by Star Fashion. Gets much needed weight relief now, back to her home track, has the fitness edge and the stable is having a good little run at the moment.
The prospect of a good speed should suit one of the better performed mares in the race, Bonaria, who closed off really well in the Let’s Elope behind Commanding Jewel. The form out of that race has stood up with the likes of Dear Demi and Solicit, so that’s a tick. Gets in pretty well at the weights given her record, drawn to get a soft run and loves Flemington.
Selections
Politeness (4) a special for mine, ahead of Suavito (10), Bonaria (2) and Scratchy Bottom (11).
In other races on the program, the UCI gives us a serious look as to who will be contenders and pretenders in the Derby. I have been loyal so far with Firehouse Rock in his career and there is no reason to jump off I feel.
Who Shot Thebarman looks a special in the Bart Cummings provided Spillway runs in the Metropolitan. He was a strong winner over 2000m last time out and faces a pretty thin field.
The Maribyrnong Trial is always an interesting race to watch, and if you want to have a bet, have something on Mihalic. She looked very sharp in a recent jumpout win at Flemington and handled the straight course beautifully.
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